Appalachia: A Reversion to the Mean?
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  Appalachia: A Reversion to the Mean?
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Author Topic: Appalachia: A Reversion to the Mean?  (Read 978 times)
JRP1994
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« on: October 13, 2013, 04:23:17 PM »

Without Barack Obama on the ticket in 2016, how will the Democratic candidate perform in Appalachia? Specifically, what will the PVI rating for 2016 be for the following states?:

West Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana
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Sol
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2013, 06:47:20 AM »

I suspect that subsequent candidates will perform about the same in all those states except WV (and maybe KY), which will continue to swing R.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2013, 12:06:03 PM »

I suspect that subsequent candidates will perform about the same in all those states except WV (and maybe KY), which will continue to swing R.

Hillary would certainly do much better in Arkansas.  If she is the nominee next time, Arkansas and Missouri could be tossups, but only if she is considerably ahead nationally, so their PVI ratings would still be Republican.  I doubt that she would have any meaningful chance at winning any of the others, although she would easily outperform Obama in West Virginia and Kentucky, while Tennessee and Louisiana could trend slightly left.

Another Democratic nominee, such as Biden, would probably have to write all of these states off.
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barfbag
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2013, 04:21:05 PM »

Without Barack Obama on the ticket in 2016, how will the Democratic candidate perform in Appalachia? Specifically, what will the PVI rating for 2016 be for the following states?:

West Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana

Louisiana isn't part of Appalachia but I know what you mean. Hillary Clinton will make things interesting in WV, LA, AR, and KY and may flip TN and MO.

Appalachian states typically include:

New York
Pennsylvania
Ohio
West Virginia
Maryland
Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Alabama
Mississippi
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