So is Boehner's job really in danger?

[SteveRogers]

Option 4.  GOP will lose half a dozen or so seats and use it as an excuse to punish Boehner.

I think this is pretty much right. Democrats will make gains in the House, but an 18 seat swing is pretty tough, and I don't know that we're looking at any kind of wave election in 2014. Maybe if the election was held today it would be, but we've got a year to go.

So Republicans will lose enough seats to get worried. Republicans will make Boehner the scapegoat, and he'll step down once the writing is on the wall just like Newt did rather than force a leadership fight.

[King]

The Dems can win the House if Team Obama does a massive GOTV drive that targets every Democratic sympathizing voter in every swing house district to vote in midterms.  It's possible.

[Person Man]

Option 4.  GOP will lose half a dozen or so seats and use it as an excuse to punish Boehner.

I would say they lose about 8 or 9 seats and fail to take the Senate. Boehner will probably resign because of it.

[Torie]

Boehner I doubt will be going anywhere, unless he wants to quit, or there is a plausible and uniting replacement. I tend to doubt either will obtain, but who knows?  My take is that most of this is about posturing. It was a theatre of the absurd where folks were attempting to move poll numbers, rather than having the slightest interest in fashioning good public policy. The Capitol is awash in small minded careerists. Pathetic and sad.

[Maxwell]

38% of people think the House will flip D in 2014....

Really?

Do you wanna bet?

Are you serious? Of course the House isn't going to flip D in 2014. Don't kid yourself.

[Stranger in a strange land]

38% of people think the House will flip D in 2014....

Really?

Do you wanna bet?

Are you serious? Of course the House isn't going to flip D in 2014. Don't kid yourself.

If the Republicans pull this kind of nonsense again in February, when the election is that much closer, it just might.

[DrScholl]

Democrats will fall short of enough seats for a majority, but Boehner will not have enough votes to remain Speaker.  He barely got 218 last time around, so I doubt he'll have the numbers next time, he probably won't even stand for Speaker again.

[Representative Joe Mad]

I'm not sure.  If anything, I see the guy stepping down.  Much as I'd like to see the Democrats take the house back in 2014, I think it is fairly safe to assume that isn't going to happen (probably be awhile for that folks).  I don't see the Republicans ousting him because:
A.  They don't have a real reason to (at least the majority of them don't).
B.  Who the hell wants to have to deal with the nonsense he does? 

[barfbag]

The more shutdowns happen, the more it will effect both parties. Eventually, the individual mandate and debt ceiling will become an election issue if the shutdowns continue. This could spell trouble for Obama which would lead to Democrats not doing as well as some think next year. Right now it looks bad for Republicans but the longer things linger, the more both parties will be blamed.

[Mechaman]

38% of people think the House will flip D in 2014....

Really?

Do you wanna bet?

One word:

Gerrymander

[Badger]

You forgot the option that says John Boehner won't be re-elected to his House seat in 2014.

Technically this has no bearing on any of the poll options because you don't have to be in Congress to be Speaker.

You forgot the option that says John Boehner won't be re-elected to his House seat in 2014.

You mean the one where he got reelected to with 64%.  In 2006?

A loss from a primary challenge would be more likely than a loss in the general election, IMO. Not that either will happen.

This isn't impossible considering the state of things. I would've said no before, but considering what egg Boehner has on his face and there's no chance of a Democrat taking this seat, MAYBE his challenger (who seems like a sane variety of hardline conservative) might use this to build enough momentum to have an equivalent chance of winning as McConnell's Tea Party challenger.

Though you'd think a guy whose professional background as a CEO of a computer consulting company wouldn't have such a crappy low-tech looking website.

[hopper]

He will probably just retire after the 2014 mid-terms. I just don't think he has the patience to deal with those 40-50 Tea Party Republicans till 2016. I would like to see McCarthy be Speaker even if he hasn't been in the US House as long as previous House Speakers have. Boehner, Pelosi, and Gingrich had to wait a long time for their turn at their gavel.