Are there three critical swing states?

[°Leprechaun]

Here is an analysis if the three largest swing states were the only swing states,
which is not true but it gives you an idea of how important these three states are.
The binary numbers represent largest to smallest states: Florida, PA, Ohio
so the official 2000 results which changed by Seven votes because of redistricting
are represented by 010 (binary for 'three').
As you can see there are eight possible results from binary for zero to binary for seven.
If you don't understand binary, let me know and I will elaborate later.
(first column=4, second=2, third=1 multiplied by number in column)

0=Bush 1=Kerry
F P O
result  likely winner    electoral votes

000 =   BUSH              299-239                
001 =   BUSH     279-259   
010 =   Bush              278-260 (2000 official result)  

011 =   Kerry       280-258

100 =   Bush??      272-266  (Bush would win but he would have to hold NH or trade for NM)

101 =   KERRY             286-252          
110 =   KERRY             287-251  (This is the alternate scenario if Gore had won Florida)    
111 =   KERRY     307-231

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

Let me eleborate on "100"; this represents a swap of PA and Florida. If Kerry does this he needs
New Hampshire. However since Bush could easily win New Mexico, Kerry would need West Virginia.

In other words, if these were the only states in play the eight scenarios represent 4 Bush
wins or 4 Kerry wins. But since other states like New Hampshire and New Mexico (not the only
ones but the most likely ones) will likely swing, the results are far from certain. The eight
scenarios only represent likely winners. So except for the "100" scenario you can predict
a likely winner (all caps represents a more likely winner than otherwise).

For example, if either candidate wins all three states he will likely win the election.
Bush could win all three and lose, but this is not likely.
Kerry could win all three and lose, but this is even less likely.

If we look at the reverse of 100, 011, where Kerry wins PA plus Ohio, Bush would need 11 electoral
votes more to tie 260-269. He would have to win either two or more or Washington (11) or Michigan (17),
One possibility if the 011 scenario occurs is a win of NM + Wis (15) - NH (4) This would result in
a 269-269 tie.

In summary Bush probably needs Florida. Kerry needs either Florida or Ohio&PA. Overall, whoever wins two out of the three will most likey win the election.

Since these three are not the only swing states, but perhaps can be seen as the critical ones, look at them as eight categories.    

[© tweed]

Yes. Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), and Ohio (20) will decide the election.  The candidate who wins two of those probably has it in the bag, and if somebody takes all three, it's over.

[The Vorlon]

Yes. Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), and Ohio (20) will decide the election.  The candidate who wins two of those probably has it in the bag, and if somebody takes all three, it's over.

Florida is actually semi-safe for Bush in 2004.

Ohio, Pennsyalvania, Wisconsin, and West Virginia are where the real battle ground will be for 2004 - IMHO.

These four are all razor close right now, and I expect one candidate or the other will win all four.

It is possible that we might add Michigan to this list, but I think Michigan is likely a "bridge too far" for Bush.

I also think New Mexico/Arizona/Nevada (maybe Colorado?) might be another mini-front in the 2004 war (Where I would recomend kerry go If I were on his staff)

I think Kerry's VP choice may tell us a lot where the Dems think the battle will be.

[angus]

20+21+27=68

anyone winning 68 electoral votes from the sunshine state, the keystone state, and the buckeye state will win the election.  For sure.  But the same candidate will not win all those, so the point is irrelevant.  

[Lunar]

Unless there is a reasonably oddball result like the one in my signature, then yes.   It is possible for Kerry to lose Ohio if he can score big in the Southwest, but it'll be unlikely.

[muon2]

These were the same three critical states in 2000, with the likely winner being the one who took two out of three. When I made predictions in 2000, I had FL and PA switched. I still had Bush winning because I overestimated the Nader vote (expecting 4-5%) and gave Bush IA, ME, NM, OR and WI.

[California Dreamer]

It is hard to imagine a scenario where either candidate can win without the big 3 swing states...or at least a realistic one.

I dont think they can even lose two, but since PA is lean Kerry and FL is lean Bush that puts OH back in as Ground Zero for the election.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

It is hard to imagine a scenario where either candidate can win without the big 3 swing states...or at least a realistic one.

I dont think they can even lose two, but since PA is lean Kerry and FL is lean Bush that puts OH back in as Ground Zero for the election.

I could see if Kerry picks Richardson as his running mate and goes on to win Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado.  (remember, Kerry was born in Colorado, could have an effect if its close)

But that's so unprobable there's no way I would want to see Kerry go with a strategy like that.  

[zorkpolitics]

I didn't know Kerry was born in CO, I thought he was born in France?

[© tweed]

I didn't know Kerry was born in CO, I thought he was born in France?

Very funny.

[Lunar]

I didn't know Kerry was born in CO, I thought he was born in France?

Hope you didn't think too hard on that one man.  I'd give it a 3/10 as far a stupid cheap shots go.

[Rococo4]

I would say the biggest three are Florida, Ohio and Penn. as well.  My second three would be WV, NH and WI.

I dont get all this talk on the boards that Virginia is somehow a swing state.  Granted I dont live there, but I have seen or heard nothing that indicates that is the case.

[© tweed]

I dont get all this talk on the boards that Virginia is somehow a swing state.  Granted I dont live there, but I have seen or heard nothing that indicates that is the case.

It isn't really, not with a Taxachusetts liberal at the top of the ticket.  Edwards could have won it though.  The only thing is, it's been trending Dem, but chances are it won't be in play until 2008.

[angus]

I dont get all this talk on the boards that Virginia is somehow a swing state.  Granted I dont live there, but I have seen or heard nothing that indicates that is the case.

It isn't really, not with a Taxachusetts liberal at the top of the ticket.  Edwards could have won it though.  The only thing is, it's been trending Dem, but chances are it won't be in play until 2008.

That's unfair characterization.  I have held a drivers license in four states and voted in four.  Of those, MA had the lowest sales tax.  Of those which had state income tax, MA had the lowest.

[Michael Z]

That's unfair characterization.  I have held a drivers license in four states and voted in four.

That must be one hell of a fast car to get through so many states in 1 day.

[angus]

That's unfair characterization.  I have held a drivers license in four states and voted in four.

That must be one hell of a fast car to get through so many states in 1 day.

smartaleck.  seriously, you may not be aware that here in the USA the commonwealth of massachusetts has a number of inaccurate stereotypes associated with it.  The most frequently mentioned is its incredibly high taxes.  As an adult I have lived in many states, four of them long enough to bother to become an official resident (vote, DL, etc.) and MA had the lowest taxes.

[Michael Z]

That's unfair characterization.  I have held a drivers license in four states and voted in four.

That must be one hell of a fast car to get through so many states in 1 day.

smartaleck.  seriously, you may not be aware that here in the USA the commonwealth of massachusetts has a number of inaccurate stereotypes associated with it.  The most frequently mentioned is its incredibly high taxes.  As an adult I have lived in many states, four of them long enough to bother to become an official resident (vote, DL, etc.) and MA had the lowest taxes.

Not sure if that joke came across as well as I intended... it's just I suddenly envisaged this scenario of you driving hither and thither, voting for the same candidate in four states... still, an interesting rebuke of a stereotype there.