Tea Party favorability/unfavorability

[pbrower2a]

This begins with the Federal shutdown. Blank map for now.

[pbrower2a]

This begins with the Federal shutdown.  Nothing before October 1, 2013.

blue, against the Tea Party -- red, for it

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

white -- even.

Kentucky: 42-41 unfavorable

http://images.politico.com/global/2013/10/07/virginiapoll100713.html

Arkansas 46-38 unfavorable

Georgia 48-40 unfavorable

Iowa 51-38 unfavorable

Louisiana 47-41 unfavorable

Michigan 53-36 unfavorable

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/SenatePollsOctober2013Memo.pdf

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I can't believe they're not doing even worse in Kentucky. The Tea Party is the local joke.

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, Quinnipiac.

12. Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            31%    61%     3%    32%    33%    28%    36%    10%
Unfavorable          58     22       89       58       56       60         55      72
Hvn't hrd enough  10     16        6       10        10       10           9      17
REFUSED               1         1        2         1          1         1           1        1

The Tea Party now serves toxic, unpalatable waste. Independent voters are now about as hostile to it in Virginia as are Democrats. I now predict that Congress will have a large infusion of conservative Democrats in January 2015 -- and not by replacing liberals.
 
red, against the Tea Party -- blue, for it

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

white -- even.

[ElectionsGuy]

What's the point of doing this when every state except Oklahoma will have a negative Tea Party approval? I get that you think it is interesting, but the results are predictable and we all now the Tea Party is horrible.

[pbrower2a]

What's the point of doing this when every state except Oklahoma will have a negative Tea Party approval? I get that you think it is interesting, but the results are predictable and we all know the Tea Party is horrible.

We may be seeing the most meteoric rise and fall in a political trend since the Carter Presidency. Such may be reflected in the 2014 Congressional elections. Could Democratic challengers run against the Tea Party and win in unlikely places? Maybe.

The most exciting times in economic news in the last century were the economic meltdowns of 1929-1932 and 2007-2009... for all the wrong reasons, of course.

[Stranger in a strange land]

What's the point of doing this when every state except Oklahoma will have a negative Tea Party approval? I get that you think it is interesting, but the results are predictable and we all now the Tea Party is horrible.

South Carolina and Tennessee will probably also give the Tea Party net approval, sad to say. Idaho might also.

[pbrower2a]

I can't give you Idaho, but I can give you one of its neighbors.  Montana.

43.9% oppose
29.6% approve
26.5% neutral or don't know

http://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/billingsgazette.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/5/6f/56f54ff5-cee0-5622-afab-e60329e40604/526a0bb4caa23.pdf.pdf

College poll, so you can expect the decimal point. It is very stark.
 
red, against the Tea Party -- blue, for it

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

white -- even.

[pbrower2a]

'Tis indeed  a most wretched brew in American politics that the Tea Party hath concocted. In the spirit of the most questionable of holidays upcoming:


Macbeth: Act 4, Scene 1

          Thunder. Enter the three WITCHES.

       First Witch
  1    Thrice the brinded cat hath mew'd.

       Second Witch
  2    Thrice and once the hedge-pig whined.

       Third Witch
  3    Harpier cries "'Tis time, 'tis time."

       First Witch
  4    Round about the cauldron go;
  5    In the poison'd entrails throw.
  6    Toad, that under cold stone
  7    Days and nights has thirty-one
  8    Swelter'd venom sleeping got,
  9    Boil thou first i' the charmed pot.

       ALL
 10    Double, double toil and trouble;
 11    Fire burn, and cauldron bubble.

       Second Witch
 12    Fillet of a fenny snake,
 13    In the cauldron boil and bake;
 14    Eye of newt and toe of frog,
 15    Wool of bat and tongue of dog,
 16    Adder's fork and blind-worm's sting,
 17    Lizard's leg and howlet's wing,
 18    For a charm of powerful trouble,
 19    Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.

       ALL
 20    Double, double toil and trouble;
 21    Fire burn and cauldron bubble.

       Third Witch
 22    Scale of dragon, tooth of wolf,
 23    Witches' mummy, maw and gulf
 24    Of the ravin'd salt-sea shark,
 25    Root of hemlock digg'd i' the dark,
 26    Liver of blaspheming Jew,
 27    Gall of goat, and slips of yew
 28    Sliver'd in the moon's eclipse,
 29    Nose of Turk and Tartar's lips,
 30    Finger of birth-strangled babe
 31    Ditch-deliver'd by a drab,
 32    Make the gruel thick and slab.
 33    Add thereto a tiger's chaudron,
 34    For the ingredients of our cauldron.

       ALL
 35    Double, double toil and trouble;
 36    Fire burn and cauldron bubble.

       Second Witch
 37    Cool it with a baboon's blood,
 38    Then the charm is firm and good.

 **       Enter HECAT and the other three
          WITCHES.

       HECATE
 39    O well done! I commend your pains;
 40    And every one shall share i' the gains;
 41    And now about the cauldron sing,
 42    Live elves and fairies in a ring
 43    Enchanting all that you put in.

[pbrower2a]

South Carolina and Tennessee will probably also give the Tea Party net approval, sad to say. Idaho might also.

Here's South Carolina:

Approval 27.9%
Disapproval 40.9%
Neutral/don't know/refused 31.3%

http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

Not South Carolina.

red, against the Tea Party -- blue, for it

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

white -- even.

[pbrower2a]

Why did nobody keep up with this?