Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[DC Al Fine]

I'm trying to get a better handle on Italian politics. It seems like their politics don't line up as neatly as the divides in most of the West, and there has been a lot of churn the past few years. With that in mind could someone tell me what demographics are voting for:

Democratic Party,
Five Star Movement
Forza Italia
Lega Nord
Democrats and Progressives
New Centre Right
Brothers of Italy
Italian Left

[palandio]

Well, it's like you said. There has been a lot of churn the past few years. That being said, my take is the following (anyone who has something to add or correct is invited to do so):

Democratic Party
In the big northern agglomerations like Milan, Turin, Genoa or Venice, the PD is traditionally strong in the working-class quarters and suburbs. In the red belt (mainly Emilia-Romagna, Toscana, Umbria), the PD has also quite some rural appeal (traditionally even more than in the cities). But I think that things are changing and the PD is transforming into a party of the urban progressive middle class.

Five Star Movement
Students, unemployed people, underemployed people, people in precarious jobs, people doing jobs below their qualifications, protest voters.

Forza Italia
I think that to understand Berlusconi's politcal sucess, you have to know that about one third of the Italian workforce is self-employed or employed by a family member, a much higher number than in other European countries like Germany (barely over 10%). Support for Forza Italia is clearly above average in these groups. Add to these parts of the conservative bourgeoisie, Rete-4-watching housewives and some Southern Italian clientele networks.

Lega Nord
In the North similar to Forza Italia, although weaker in the cities and stronger among rural voters. I would say that during the transition from the first to the second republic, the Lega has been able to attract some former PCI voters, while some former PSI voters went to Forza Italia.

Democrats and Progressives
Particularly in former PCI strongholds you will find a lot of PD party circles that also serve as a kind of bar for retired men sitting on plastic chairs, playing cards and discussing politics. Some of them may defect to the Democrats and Progressives.

New Centre Right
Umm, I would guess mostly some Southern clienteles?

Brothers of Italy
Don't know.

Italian Left
Nowadays probably strongest among the urban alternative crowd, both radical chic and people who are frequenting occupied social centers, but don't live there. The old Communist Refoundation, which through some of its splinters can be considered as some kind of predecessor of the Italian Left. It already had this alternative, alter-globalist vibe, but at the same time it was quite good at gathering the traditional working-class commie nostalgics. The present-day Italian Left lacks this feature almost entirely.

[palandio]

What I forgot: A very high percentage of Italian citizens identifies as Catholics, but to very different degrees. Today a majority of them is non-practicing.

The combination of Catholicism and left-of-center (even hard-left) politics has been quite common for about 50 years. From my personal experience there are many people with left-wing political ideas who are at the same time practicing Catholics and active in Catholic-inspired organizations.

That being said they are a minority. Parties whose support is positively correlated with active Catholicism are Forza Italia and New Center Right.

Waldensians (there are not so many of them) are on average quite left-wing.

[rob in cal]

  Are there indications that the working class demographics are starting to shift away from left wing parties, similar to what we see in other countries like Austria?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The thing you need to remember about Italy is that there's so much variation between different regions that sweeping demographic conclusions are... difficult.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Democrats and Progressives
Particularly in former PCI strongholds you will find a lot of PD party circles that also serve as a kind of bar for retired men sitting on plastic chairs, playing cards and discussing politics. Some of them may defect to the Democrats and Progressives.

I love this description and intend to steal it.

[SPQR]

  Are there indications that the working class demographics are starting to shift away from left wing parties, similar to what we see in other countries like Austria?

Oh, absolutely.

Unemployed and blue collars overwhelmingly vote M5S, and before then Lega Nord had been making inroads in Northern Italy with these categories.
More recently, public employees have started to shift away from PD as well, possibly due to their problematic relation with Renzi.

[SPQR]

What I forgot: A very high percentage of Italian citizens identifies as Catholics, but to very different degrees. Today a majority of them is non-practicing.

The combination of Catholicism and left-of-center (even hard-left) politics has been quite common for about 50 years. From my personal experience there are many people with left-wing political ideas who are at the same time practicing Catholics and active in Catholic-inspired organizations.

That being said they are a minority. Parties whose support is positively correlated with active Catholicism are Forza Italia and New Center Right.

Waldensians (there are not so many of them) are on average quite left-wing.

Well, Catholic-inspired organizations working on social issues end up being quite close to left-wing ideas; look for instance at Sant'Egidio. So I think it's a pretty coherent process, whereas "catto-comunist" has always been seen as insult.

More recently, if I recall correctly, the majority of those going to Church frequently voted Yes at the referendum, whereas more tepid Catholics and atheists voted no. Which is also what I saw while campaigning...Sunday mornings in front of the churches were amongst the few times we'd have a positive reception.

[jaichind]

Looks like M5S has moved back to a significant lead over PD 32.3 vs 26.8. 

[jaichind]

What are the chances FI FN Fdl AP coming together next election?  It seems like if they do not they are really conceding the race to a two way battle between M5S and PD.

[palandio]

It's not even clear what the electoral law for the next election will be. The Constitutional Court has ruled most of the new Italicum law to be constitutional (including an eventual majority bonus for parties/lists [not coalitions] getting over 40% of the proportional vote). But one of its main features, the assignment of the majority bonus to the winner of a runoff in the case that no party gets over 40%, has been ruled to be unconstitutional.

Given that at the moment it seems unlikely that any single party would get over 40%, the outcome with an Italicum without runoff would be proportional representation of all parties over 3%.

In this case there would be no need of a center-right electoral alliance. The only ones who should worry because of the 3% threshold are Mdp, Italian Left, Ap and Pisapia's Progressive camp.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Could the Left and MDP join an alliance, or would that be untenable?

[palandio]

A Left-MDP unitary list is definitely possible in my opinion.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Could the Left and MDP join an alliance, or would that be untenable?

They probably will in the end, yeah. Not that that will prevent both from getting trounced.

[SPQR]

Could the Left and MDP join an alliance, or would that be untenable?

They probably will in the end, yeah. Not that that will prevent both from getting trounced.

Actually, that's exactly the sort of alliance which facilitates the trouncing process. Reminds me of Sinistra Arcobaleno and the likes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Could the Left and MDP join an alliance, or would that be untenable?

They probably will in the end, yeah. Not that that will prevent both from getting trounced.

Actually, that's exactly the sort of alliance which facilitates the trouncing process. Reminds me of Sinistra Arcobaleno and the likes.

Well, it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. It's not like they would have a chance alone either.

[DC Al Fine]

Sorry for asking such basic questions, but...

Can someone explain the fault lines between Forza Italia, Popular Alternative, and Brothers of Italy, without using Wikipedia infoboxes?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry for asking such basic questions, but...

Can someone explain the fault lines between Forza Italia, Popular Alternative, and Brothers of Italy, without using Wikipedia infoboxes?

The former are diehard Berlusconi loyalists, the middle have thrown Berlusconi under the bus to prop up the Letta government in 2013 and since then have been part of all governments. FdI is more nationalist and these days is basically parroting Salvini on immigration and the EU.

[TheSaint250]

Just a question for anyone: is Legal Nord still pro-secession or is it just a populist party now?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just a question for anyone: is Legal Nord still pro-secession or is it just a populist party now?

No, they've basically converted into a generic xenophobic-populist-right party in all but name under Salvini. Although they still do pretty terribly in the South, for obvious reasons.

[SPQR]

The first phase of the primaries for PD's secretary, in which only its members could vote, ended yesterday.
Renzi got 69%, Orlando 25%, Emiliano 6% (barely managing to qualify for the open primaries of April 30th, since the threshold was set at 5%).

[Antonio the Sixth]

PD primaries today. Turnout expected to be about 2 million, which is not too bad all considered.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i read about 1 million earlier, so this is an improvement.

still a totally useless injury and challenge for renzi, which has even split the party.....

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's looking like a Renzislide.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Still no official results, but the feel is that Renzi should be between 70% and 75%. Orlando around 20%, and Emiliano gets the rest.