Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Vosem]

Pledging to resign if the referendum were defeated seems like rather odd behavior if Renzi always intended to return to politics immediately. Reminds me of Farage's "resignation" after UK 2015.

[ApatheticAustrian]

ofc renzi itended to return but since he connected the referendum with his own persona, it was necessary to get a new "mandate" of his own party....after all no one has voted for renzi until now directly.

[Barnes]

Oh good, of course Renzi was never actually going away, but it's nice to see him return in triumphal fashion.

ofc renzi itended to return but since he connected the referendum with his own persona, it was necessary to get a new "mandate" of his own party....after all no one has voted for renzi until now directly.

Exactly. He staked so much of his own political capital on the referendum that he had to follow through with at least the motions of resigning to avoid being further damaged.

[TheSaint250]

Pledging to resign if the referendum were defeated seems like rather odd behavior if Renzi always intended to return to politics immediately. Reminds me of Farage's "resignation" after UK 2015.

I think the difference there was that UKIP rejected his resignation because they still kinda needed him.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pledging to resign if the referendum were defeated seems like rather odd behavior if Renzi always intended to return to politics immediately. Reminds me of Farage's "resignation" after UK 2015.

I think the difference there was that UKIP rejected his resignation because they still kinda needed him.

As the PD needs Renzi.

[DavidB.]

Nice! I love Flawless Beautiful Matteo.

[ApatheticAustrian]

italy and france are the weak links of the EU atm.....i trust renzi to stabilize my great southern neighbour state.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nice! I love Flawless Beautiful Matteo.

I love how eclectic you are in your political allegiances across countries.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Sorry if this is a dumb question but does this mean Renzi is headed back to the PM position?

[Barnes]

Sorry if this is a dumb question but does this mean Renzi is headed back to the PM position?

Not in the short term at least. Now that he's been re-elected Chairman of the PD with such a mandate, he's certainly the most powerful man in the country. However if he can successfully win next year's election, he'll have quite an authoritative claim on the office as opposed to forcing a PD government to resign again to make way for him during this term.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry if this is a dumb question but does this mean Renzi is headed back to the PM position?

Not in the short term at least. Now that he's been re-elected Chairman of the PD with such a mandate, he's certainly the most powerful man in the country. However if he can successfully win next year's election, he'll have quite an authoritative claim on the office as opposed to forcing a PD government to resign again to make way for him during this term.

Basically this. There's no point in Renzi trying to become PM before the elections, but you'll be sure he'll try his damnedest to be at the center of the political game during the election and in its aftermath.

[SPQR]

2 million voters are way above expectations, which were of about 1,5 millions.
Orlando spent most of his campaign talking about how anything below 2 millions would be a failure...

Also, it's worthy of notice how bad Orlando's campaign was. He was seen as the secret weapon of PD's minority, and he failed badly. Not just because of his result, but also because of how flat and weak he was throughout the last 2 months.

Having said that, wonderful result for Renzi. A strong mandate from the party's members last month, and an even stronger result yesterday were just what he (and PD as a whole) needed to face the next general election's campaign.

[Tender Branson]

Didn't hear much about Italy recently.

What's the status of electoral reform ?

[SPQR]

Didn't hear much about Italy recently.

What's the status of electoral reform ?

Pretty much in standby waiting for yesterday's primaries.
I'd love to go back to a "mixed system" such as the Mattarellum (70% of seats with FPTP, 30% with PR), but I am afraid too many parties are just fine with a horrible PR law such as the one currently in place, so that there will be only minor changes (such as setting the same threshold for House and Senate).

[Diouf]

I hope that they will soon get what the Constitutional Court is telling them and make a fair and lasting electoral system instead of (in vain) trying to get around the clear requirements set by the court. Make it full PR and completely open lists, something like a return to the 1946-1993 law.

[SPQR]

I hope that they will soon get what the Constitutional Court is telling them and make a fair and lasting electoral system instead of (in vain) trying to get around the clear requirements set by the court. Make it full PR and completely open lists, something like a return to the 1946-1993 law.

Oh God, please no.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hope that they will soon get what the Constitutional Court is telling them and make a fair and lasting electoral system instead of (in vain) trying to get around the clear requirements set by the court. Make it full PR and completely open lists, something like a return to the 1946-1993 law.

In principle I agree with you, but in the current context of Italian politics, this would be a recipe for disaster.

[Nanwe]

I hope that they will soon get what the Constitutional Court is telling them and make a fair and lasting electoral system instead of (in vain) trying to get around the clear requirements set by the court. Make it full PR and completely open lists, something like a return to the 1946-1993 law.

In principle I agree with you, but in the current context of Italian politics, this would be a recipe for disaster.

Why not just keep the constituencies drawn for the Itallicum (in which the number of seats goes from 3 to 9) without a majority bonus? Using D'Hont as the quota, you get a heavily corrected form of PR. I did that myself with the results from the 2014 EP election, and only 4 parties managed to enter Parliament (PD, M5S, FI, LN, NCD-UCD) from the PR lists and then the SVP from the uninominal seats in Trentino-Alto Adige. And in reality only the major three had any significant number of seats.

[Diouf]

I hope that they will soon get what the Constitutional Court is telling them and make a fair and lasting electoral system instead of (in vain) trying to get around the clear requirements set by the court. Make it full PR and completely open lists, something like a return to the 1946-1993 law.

In principle I agree with you, but in the current context of Italian politics, this would be a recipe for disaster.

I'm not sure it is the best idea to focus to much on the current political context. When Italicum was put into place, many figured it would clearly mean PD-victory as they were way ahead in polls. With the majority bonus, Renzi could carry out his sweeping reforms, which would be "a good thing". However, in the current state of affairs, Italicum would probably lead to a majority for Grillo and the Five Star Movement, which I don't believe as many sees as a "a good thing". I believe the best solution is to simply let parliament reflect the views of the population. If this results in a "Populist United Front" of M5S, Lega Nord etc with a majority, then so be it

[SPQR]

I hope that they will soon get what the Constitutional Court is telling them and make a fair and lasting electoral system instead of (in vain) trying to get around the clear requirements set by the court. Make it full PR and completely open lists, something like a return to the 1946-1993 law.

In principle I agree with you, but in the current context of Italian politics, this would be a recipe for disaster.

I'm not sure it is the best idea to focus to much on the current political context. When Italicum was put into place, many figured it would clearly mean PD-victory as they were way ahead in polls. With the majority bonus, Renzi could carry out his sweeping reforms, which would be "a good thing". However, in the current state of affairs, Italicum would probably lead to a majority for Grillo and the Five Star Movement, which I don't believe as many sees as a "a good thing". I believe the best solution is to simply let parliament reflect the views of the population. If this results in a "Populist United Front" of M5S, Lega Nord etc with a majority, then so be it

It's not just that.
It's that the PR system which characterized the First Republic was the key element behind many of Italy's problem: fragmented governments with indecisive majorities which relied on policies aimed at the short term (which built our huge public debt) and looked at the special interests of small parties or even individual deputies.
So I am deeply against it not because of its impact in the current situation, but because of its future repercussions...

[Diouf]

I hope that they will soon get what the Constitutional Court is telling them and make a fair and lasting electoral system instead of (in vain) trying to get around the clear requirements set by the court. Make it full PR and completely open lists, something like a return to the 1946-1993 law.

In principle I agree with you, but in the current context of Italian politics, this would be a recipe for disaster.

I'm not sure it is the best idea to focus to much on the current political context. When Italicum was put into place, many figured it would clearly mean PD-victory as they were way ahead in polls. With the majority bonus, Renzi could carry out his sweeping reforms, which would be "a good thing". However, in the current state of affairs, Italicum would probably lead to a majority for Grillo and the Five Star Movement, which I don't believe as many sees as a "a good thing". I believe the best solution is to simply let parliament reflect the views of the population. If this results in a "Populist United Front" of M5S, Lega Nord etc with a majority, then so be it

It's not just that.
It's that the PR system which characterized the First Republic was the key element behind many of Italy's problem: fragmented governments with indecisive majorities which relied on policies aimed at the short term (which built our huge public debt) and looked at the special interests of small parties or even individual deputies.
So I am deeply against it not because of its impact in the current situation, but because of its future repercussions...

Probably hard to cast all of Italy's problems on the voting system. If a majority of Italians insist of voting for parties, that don't want to do necessary changes and perhaps even make the situation worse, then that it's how things will develop. And if that is how the Italians want to vote, then there is quite a big probability that even in majoritarian systems, the Italian voters would just give even bigger powers to those parties doing the wrong things. And in terms of general stability, it would at least help if they make a new electoral law, that is not obviously going to be struck down in the Constitutional Court like the Italicum.

[SPQR]

I hope that they will soon get what the Constitutional Court is telling them and make a fair and lasting electoral system instead of (in vain) trying to get around the clear requirements set by the court. Make it full PR and completely open lists, something like a return to the 1946-1993 law.

In principle I agree with you, but in the current context of Italian politics, this would be a recipe for disaster.

I'm not sure it is the best idea to focus to much on the current political context. When Italicum was put into place, many figured it would clearly mean PD-victory as they were way ahead in polls. With the majority bonus, Renzi could carry out his sweeping reforms, which would be "a good thing". However, in the current state of affairs, Italicum would probably lead to a majority for Grillo and the Five Star Movement, which I don't believe as many sees as a "a good thing". I believe the best solution is to simply let parliament reflect the views of the population. If this results in a "Populist United Front" of M5S, Lega Nord etc with a majority, then so be it

It's not just that.
It's that the PR system which characterized the First Republic was the key element behind many of Italy's problem: fragmented governments with indecisive majorities which relied on policies aimed at the short term (which built our huge public debt) and looked at the special interests of small parties or even individual deputies.
So I am deeply against it not because of its impact in the current situation, but because of its future repercussions...

Probably hard to cast all of Italy's problems on the voting system. If a majority of Italians insist of voting for parties, that don't want to do necessary changes and perhaps even make the situation worse, then that it's how things will develop. And if that is how the Italians want to vote, then there is quite a big probability that even in majoritarian systems, the Italian voters would just give even bigger powers to those parties doing the wrong things. And in terms of general stability, it would at least help if they make a new electoral law, that is not obviously going to be struck down in the Constitutional Court like the Italicum.

I am not saying the voting system is the cause of all of Italy's problems, but a PR system would certainly amplify them, as shown during the First Republic. There is no no such thing as a theoretically perfect electoral law, it all depends on the framework. And Italy's worst aspects come out in force with a PR system in place.

If a populist party wins in a majoritarian system so be it, but Italy cannot stand other decades of governments in which no one is held truly accountable.

[Diouf]

I am not saying the voting system is the cause of all of Italy's problems, but a PR system would certainly amplify them, as shown during the First Republic. There is no no such thing as a theoretically perfect electoral law, it all depends on the framework. And Italy's worst aspects come out in force with a PR system in place.

If a populist party wins in a majoritarian system so be it, but Italy cannot stand other decades of governments in which no one is held truly accountable.

ok, obviously not gonna agree here. Just really don't see the case for Italian exceptionalism in not being able to handle PR, but it also seems that it is more like the general disagreement about electoral systems which is totally fair: e.g. Is there accountability in PR?, which I will of course say that there fully is.

[Diouf]

PD proposes Orban-style electoral law. FFS. They try to brand it as a "adjusted German system", but in reality it is not anything like that when the proportional seats are not top-up seats. More like an adjusted Mattarellum if anything. Lega Nord seems to like it because they could win on this proposal due to being able to win several constituencies in the North, but hopefully the other parties will prevent this from coming through.

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http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2017/05/17/pd-to-present-proposal-for-german-style-electoral-law_638c3e73-f5f0-4117-84c2-08a2528e2cc5.html

[SPQR]

PD's proposal is the best one by far in today's scenario.
I would prefer a lower % of "proportional seats", but whatever, anything is better than a pure PR system.

At least it provides proper local representation, while also giving hope of some party getting an absolute majority.