Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This system is unbelievably awful. Just retaining the status quo for the Camera and reducing the power of the Senate would be preferable.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This system is unbelievably awful. Just retaining the status quo for the Camera and reducing the power of the Senate would be preferable.

You do realize that if elections were held today under the current system, the parliament that would emerge would make Berlusconi indispensable for coalition building (and by Berlusconi, I mean that even PD + Alfano wouldn't work anymore)?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This system is unbelievably awful. Just retaining the status quo for the Camera and reducing the power of the Senate would be preferable.

You do realize that if elections were held today under the current system, the parliament that would emerge would make Berlusconi indispensable for coalition building (and by Berlusconi, I mean that even PD + Alfano wouldn't work anymore)?

I'm tempted to argue that that's an inherent problem with Berlusconi's continued existence as a political figure, not with the electoral system, but instead I'd just ask how you figure, because at least in the case of the Camera--by 'reducing the power of the Senate' I do mean making it so that it's no longer necessary for confidence and supply, among other things--I actually didn't realize that, no.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This system is unbelievably awful. Just retaining the status quo for the Camera and reducing the power of the Senate would be preferable.

You do realize that if elections were held today under the current system, the parliament that would emerge would make Berlusconi indispensable for coalition building (and by Berlusconi, I mean that even PD + Alfano wouldn't work anymore)?

I'm tempted to argue that that's an inherent problem with Berlusconi's continued existence as a political figure, not with the electoral system, but instead I'd just ask how you figure, because at least in the case of the Camera--by 'reducing the power of the Senate' I do mean making it so that it's no longer necessary for confidence and supply, among other things--I actually didn't realize that, no.

Last December, the Constitutional Court struck down the majority bonus that was allotted under the previous electoral law. This effectively turned the electoral system in both houses into fullscale PR. While stripping the Senate of its confidence and supply powers would indeed have been sufficient under the previous system, now that alone would achieve little.

[Хahar 🤔]

It's not possible to legislate away the fact that a very large portion of the Italian electorate wants Berlusconi.

[Famous Mortimer]

The bonus, as stupid as it is, is the only thing that made Italy sort of governable.

I thought, if anything, they were going to expand it to both houses, rather than scrap it completely.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's not possible to legislate away the fact that a very large portion of the Italian electorate wants Berlusconi.

It's definitely worth a try. I'd really like to take principled stances like you guys, but Italy just can't afford our principles right now.

[Diouf]

It's not possible to legislate away the fact that a very large portion of the Italian electorate wants Berlusconi.

It's definitely worth a try. I'd really like to take principled stances like you guys, but Italy just can't afford our principles right now.

But shouldn't they at least try to make something that does not contain the two things that the constitutional court has just struck down? This seems like the German EP system spectacle all over again. I really hope the court strikes down the new law before the election as well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's not possible to legislate away the fact that a very large portion of the Italian electorate wants Berlusconi.

It's definitely worth a try. I'd really like to take principled stances like you guys, but Italy just can't afford our principles right now.

But shouldn't they at least try to make something that does not contain the two things that the constitutional court has just struck down? This seems like the German EP system spectacle all over again. I really hope the court strikes down the new law before the election as well.

The difference between the previous system and Renzi's is that the majority bonus would be assigned only if a coalition wins over 37% of the votes.* Otherwise, a runoff is held between the two most voted coalitions. What the Court did not want is to have a coalition win less than 30% and still get 55% of seats, which was considered an excessive distorsion. I'm not sure if the 37% threshold will be considered enough, but it might well be.

*Yes, I know that's still too low. There's been extensive bargain with Berlusconi to raise it, this is the best he could get.

[Diouf]

It's not possible to legislate away the fact that a very large portion of the Italian electorate wants Berlusconi.

It's definitely worth a try. I'd really like to take principled stances like you guys, but Italy just can't afford our principles right now.

But shouldn't they at least try to make something that does not contain the two things that the constitutional court has just struck down? This seems like the German EP system spectacle all over again. I really hope the court strikes down the new law before the election as well.

The difference between the previous system and Renzi's is that the majority bonus would be assigned only if a coalition wins over 37% of the votes.* Otherwise, a runoff is held between the two most voted coalitions. What the Court did not want is to have a coalition win less than 30% and still get 55% of seats, which was considered an excessive distorsion. I'm not sure if the 37% threshold will be considered enough, but it might well be.

*Yes, I know that's still too low. There's been extensive bargain with Berlusconi to raise it, this is the best he could get.

Thanks, found this blog which discusses it further: http://www.verfassungsblog.de/de/the-italian-electoral-law-of-march-2014-still-constitutionally-questionable/#.UyYm-YXPbl0

Quite interesting. Especially the part about the threshold for smaller parties. Looking at recent polls, a quite likely result would be a victory for the centre-right which could just reach 37 %, but with all other parties than Forza Italia gaining below 4.5 % so that FI gets 54 % of the seats on as low as 25-26 % of the vote. That would be quite an excessive distortion as well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this is definitely a possibility - and I agree it's very questionable. I still hope the law will be improved a bit in the Senate, and that Berlusconi will be forced to accept a higher runoff threshold and lower representation thresholds. Still, if it's up or down, I take this horrible law over the intrinsically better but unworkable current one.

[Famous Mortimer]

Wait, they're going to have run-offs for party list PR?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

^^^

Could someone explain *exactly* how the new law works?

[justfollowingtheelections]

Any comments on the Veneto independence referendum?

[Diouf]

^^^

Could someone explain *exactly* how the new law works?

My understanding

The starting point is PR. Thresholds are 12 % for coalitions, 8 % for parties, and 4.5 % for parties in a coalition. The party/coalition with the highest amount of votes will get a bonus of 15 %, but the bonus can only be used to reach maximum 54 %. The bonus for the leading party/coalition will only be activated if the winning entity gets at least 37 %. If no one reaches that number, a run-off betweeen the two most popular coalitions/parties will be held, and the winner will get 53 % of the seats.

[MaxQue]

Hopefully that thing will get stuck again by courts, those thresholds are horrible and the Greek-system too (but I could live with it without those thresholds).

[Diouf]

An example based on the latest poll:

The centre-right coalition will just win and get 37.6 + 15 = 52.6 % of the seats. These 331 seats will be divided between Forza Italia, Lega Nord and Nuovo Centrodestra who all reached the 4.5 % mark. The remaining seats will be distributed between Partito Democratico and Movimento 5 Stelle.


Forza Italia 237 seats
Lega Nord 48 seats
Nuovo Centrodestra 46 seats

Partito Democratico 199 seats

Movimento 5 Stelle 100 seats

This calculation is without the regional parties, which I guess will still be able to win a few seats in Aosta and South Tyrol. Also with this law, it will make sense for many of the small parties to be allowed to run in a few constituencies on the biggest party's list, but I'm not sure whether the two big parties will allow that.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

What exactly is going on with Venetia?

[Хahar 🤔]

It's not possible to legislate away the fact that a very large portion of the Italian electorate wants Berlusconi.

It's definitely worth a try. I'd really like to take principled stances like you guys, but Italy just can't afford our principles right now.

Why even hold elections, then? If it's so important that the electorate vote a particular way you might as well not have an electorate.

[Famous Mortimer]

I never thought I would say this, but maybe they should just use FPTP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's not possible to legislate away the fact that a very large portion of the Italian electorate wants Berlusconi.

It's definitely worth a try. I'd really like to take principled stances like you guys, but Italy just can't afford our principles right now.

Why even hold elections, then? If it's so important that the electorate vote a particular way you might as well not have an electorate.

I wouldn't mind a benevolent dictatorship in Italy right now, to be fully honest.

[RogueBeaver]

I never thought I would say this, but maybe they should just use FPTP.

French system also works. Anything but the devilish PR.

[Simfan34]

It's not possible to legislate away the fact that a very large portion of the Italian electorate wants Berlusconi.

It's definitely worth a try. I'd really like to take principled stances like you guys, but Italy just can't afford our principles right now.

Why even hold elections, then? If it's so important that the electorate vote a particular way you might as well not have an electorate.

I wouldn't mind a benevolent dictatorship in Italy right now, to be fully honest.

You're becoming like me, I see.

But in all seriousness, if you're going to have a democracy you have to accept that people will simply often vote contrary to the way you wish them to.

[YL]

Last December, the Constitutional Court struck down the majority bonus that was allotted under the previous electoral law. This effectively turned the electoral system in both houses into fullscale PR. While stripping the Senate of its confidence and supply powers would indeed have been sufficient under the previous system, now that alone would achieve little.

Are they removing the confidence and supply powers from the Senate?  And if not, what's the proposed electoral system for the Senate?

[YL]

What exactly is going on with Venetia?

An unofficial online "referendum" organised by a separatist group.