Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Andrea]

Mayoral run offs:


Centre-Left hold: Modena, Terni, Bari

CL gain from CR: Biella, Vercelli, Verbania, Bergamo, Pavia, Cremona, Pescara

5Stars gain from CL: Livorno

CR gain from CL: Padova, Perugia, Foggia, Potenza

CR hold: Teramo


Perugia's first round result was luckluster but it was the same in next door Terni. Terni was held easily in the run off. In Perugia the incumbent mayor was swept away yesterday. He lost over 14,000 votes compared to 2 weeks ago

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let me guess, turnout in each city was much lower than in the first round?

[SPQR]

Let me guess, turnout in each city was much lower than in the first round?

As usual.

Overall,PD won around 65% of all cities,and 19 out of 29 "capoluoghi",so very impressive result.

The bad results in Perugia and Livorno are mostly due to local weaknesses;the centerleft has ruled there for a long time and not in a good way,so a defeat could be expected,and might even be positive in that part of the "old party" (D'Alema and Bersani's people,who dominate especially in PD strongholds) will be dismissed also at the local level.

[Zanas]

I'm under the impression, true or false, that Livorno is a quite left-wing city of workers tradition. Is the M5S vote there a kind of left-wing protest vote against a tired PD establishment or something else ?

[SPQR]

I'm under the impression, true or false, that Livorno is a quite left-wing city of workers tradition. Is the M5S vote there a kind of left-wing protest vote against a tired PD establishment or something else ?

Exactly.

[RodPresident]

With Renzi government so solid, should be time for Napolitano get out of Quirinale? Or he'll remain, as a Presidential Election would be a mess?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Out of curiosity, what do we think would happen if Renzi were to call an election at some point within the next, say, six months?

[Antonio the Sixth]

With Renzi government so solid, should be time for Napolitano get out of Quirinale? Or he'll remain, as a Presidential Election would be a mess?

From what I've understood, he plans to stay until the electoral and constitutional reforms will be passed, ensuring a more stable political situation.

Out of curiosity, what do we think would happen if Renzi were to call an election at some point within the next, say, six months?

I'm not sure PD would reach 40% in a general election, where turnout is generally higher, but it would still do pretty well, above 35%. Still, that wouldn't be enough for a majority, as long as the electoral system isn't reformed. So the situation would be more or less what it is now, except NCD would be marginalized while FI gains ground.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

With Renzi government so solid, should be time for Napolitano get out of Quirinale? Or he'll remain, as a Presidential Election would be a mess?

From what I've understood, he plans to stay until the electoral and constitutional reforms will be passed, ensuring a more stable political situation.

Out of curiosity, what do we think would happen if Renzi were to call an election at some point within the next, say, six months?

I'm not sure PD would reach 40% in a general election, where turnout is generally higher, but it would still do pretty well, above 35%. Still, that wouldn't be enough for a majority, as long as the electoral system isn't reformed. So the situation would be more or less what it is now, except NCD would be marginalized while FI gains ground.

Both of these answers beg the question of if there's any timetable for getting the reforms (which I still maintain are godawful, but they're better than nothing) passed yet.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There is supposed to be a timetable, but it keeps being postponed for one reason or the other... Renzi now says he wants to get the Senate reform done by the end of the summer, but I have a hard time believing it, considering how tortuous the process for constitutional reform is. Also, Berlusconi is seemingly distancing himself from his former commitment (not surprising, but still), which will make its path to a majority a bit narrower - though still practicable. Basically, we really have to wait and see.

[SPQR]

There is supposed to be a timetable, but it keeps being postponed for one reason or the other... Renzi now says he wants to get the Senate reform done by the end of the summer, but I have a hard time believing it, considering how tortuous the process for constitutional reform is. Also, Berlusconi is seemingly distancing himself from his former commitment (not surprising, but still), which will make its path to a majority a bit narrower - though still practicable. Basically, we really have to wait and see.

Pretty much.
Senate,electoral law,justice and PA reform are next in line.
The first two are the priorities,after which Napolitano could possibly resign. Not that it would facilitate anything,tbh.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I don't know if this is a popular opinion within Italy or not, but from where I'm standing I really think Napolitano deserves the best in the world for all he's done to keep the country functioning. I hope he can get some rest and something at least resembling a retirement soon. He's ancient as it is.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't know if this is a popular opinion within Italy or not, but from where I'm standing I really think Napolitano deserves the best in the world for all he's done to keep the country functioning. I hope he can get some rest and something at least resembling a retirement soon. He's ancient as it is.

Yes, Napolitano is definitely an impressive example of personal abnegation and service to the country. Several of his recent decisions were highly misguided, such as pushing so hard for an alliance with Berlusconi even when other options were on the table by not giving Bersani a full mandate to seek a parliamentary majority. And I'm pretty sure he seriously considered the possibility of pardoning Berlusconi, before he blew it by acting like an idiot. Still, I have no doubt that he did everything he thought was necessary to preserve the country. Anyway, yes, it would be high time for him to retire and finally get some rest.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Today Renzi met with M5S leaders, who finally agreed to have a discussion/negotiation on electoral reform (for which they unveiled their own proposal). The meeting was broadcast on live stream. So, in short, there's still a long way to go, but both sides showed some good will and further meetings should follow. If they're serious about this, it's actually a great occasion to significantly improve the law.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Today Renzi met with M5S leaders, who finally agreed to have a discussion/negotiation on electoral reform (for which they unveiled their own proposal). The meeting was broadcast on live stream. So, in short, there's still a long way to go, but both sides showed some good will and further meetings should follow. If they're serious about this, it's actually a great occasion to significantly improve the law.

This is because most of the right has flaked out of their commitment to this, isn't it?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Today Renzi met with M5S leaders, who finally agreed to have a discussion/negotiation on electoral reform (for which they unveiled their own proposal). The meeting was broadcast on live stream. So, in short, there's still a long way to go, but both sides showed some good will and further meetings should follow. If they're serious about this, it's actually a great occasion to significantly improve the law.

This is because most of the right has flaked out of their commitment to this, isn't it?

Interestingly, Berlusconi had actually re-endorsed the compromise a few days before M5S led their availability be known (of course Berlusconi's word is never worth much, but still at least in theory the plan was back on track). What's really surprising is the M5S' sudden openness to discussion and compromise with other parties, something that was thought impossible mere weeks ago. The results of the last elections may have something to do with it though.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Today Renzi met with M5S leaders, who finally agreed to have a discussion/negotiation on electoral reform (for which they unveiled their own proposal). The meeting was broadcast on live stream. So, in short, there's still a long way to go, but both sides showed some good will and further meetings should follow. If they're serious about this, it's actually a great occasion to significantly improve the law.

This is because most of the right has flaked out of their commitment to this, isn't it?

Interestingly, Berlusconi had actually re-endorsed the compromise a few days before M5S led their availability be known (of course Berlusconi's word is never worth much, but still at least in theory the plan was back on track). What's really surprising is the M5S' sudden openness to discussion and compromise with other parties, something that was thought impossible mere weeks ago. The results of the last elections may have something to do with it though.

I can imagine some more rabid 5-star activists are none too happy, no?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Today Renzi met with M5S leaders, who finally agreed to have a discussion/negotiation on electoral reform (for which they unveiled their own proposal). The meeting was broadcast on live stream. So, in short, there's still a long way to go, but both sides showed some good will and further meetings should follow. If they're serious about this, it's actually a great occasion to significantly improve the law.

This is because most of the right has flaked out of their commitment to this, isn't it?

Interestingly, Berlusconi had actually re-endorsed the compromise a few days before M5S led their availability be known (of course Berlusconi's word is never worth much, but still at least in theory the plan was back on track). What's really surprising is the M5S' sudden openness to discussion and compromise with other parties, something that was thought impossible mere weeks ago. The results of the last elections may have something to do with it though.

I can imagine some more rabid 5-star activists are none too happy, no?

Not as far as I know. The most rabid wing of the M5S base basically consist of Grillo cultists who'll support anything he supports and despise anything he despises - so I guess as long as Grillo gives his blessing to these efforts (he might very well disown them at some point) things will go on.

[politicus]

Today Renzi met with M5S leaders, who finally agreed to have a discussion/negotiation on electoral reform (for which they unveiled their own proposal). The meeting was broadcast on live stream. So, in short, there's still a long way to go, but both sides showed some good will and further meetings should follow. If they're serious about this, it's actually a great occasion to significantly improve the law.

This is because most of the right has flaked out of their commitment to this, isn't it?

Interestingly, Berlusconi had actually re-endorsed the compromise a few days before M5S led their availability be known (of course Berlusconi's word is never worth much, but still at least in theory the plan was back on track). What's really surprising is the M5S' sudden openness to discussion and compromise with other parties, something that was thought impossible mere weeks ago. The results of the last elections may have something to do with it though.

I can imagine some more rabid 5-star activists are none too happy, no?

Not as far as I know. The most rabid wing of the M5S base basically consist of Grillo cultists who'll support anything he supports and despise anything he despises - so I guess as long as Grillo gives his blessing to these efforts (he might very well disown them at some point) things will go on.

The whole Grillo cult is really weird, its hard to see the appeal of the guy. Who are the Grillo cultists?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Today Renzi met with M5S leaders, who finally agreed to have a discussion/negotiation on electoral reform (for which they unveiled their own proposal). The meeting was broadcast on live stream. So, in short, there's still a long way to go, but both sides showed some good will and further meetings should follow. If they're serious about this, it's actually a great occasion to significantly improve the law.

This is because most of the right has flaked out of their commitment to this, isn't it?

Interestingly, Berlusconi had actually re-endorsed the compromise a few days before M5S led their availability be known (of course Berlusconi's word is never worth much, but still at least in theory the plan was back on track). What's really surprising is the M5S' sudden openness to discussion and compromise with other parties, something that was thought impossible mere weeks ago. The results of the last elections may have something to do with it though.

I can imagine some more rabid 5-star activists are none too happy, no?

Not as far as I know. The most rabid wing of the M5S base basically consist of Grillo cultists who'll support anything he supports and despise anything he despises - so I guess as long as Grillo gives his blessing to these efforts (he might very well disown them at some point) things will go on.

The whole Grillo cult is really weird, its hard to see the appeal of the guy. Who are the Grillo cultists?

He speaks loud and (at least somewhat rightfully) thrashes the Italian political class for its evil deeds. He's basically your standard 21st century demagogue, just without the xenophobic undertones that accompanies it elsewhere and instead with a weird fascination for Teh Internetz instead. I don't have details about the demographics of the M5S hardcore, but the common stereotype holds that it's mostly made of youth with little economic capital but at least some cultural capital. The typical postmaterialist internet activist who's probably fond of Anonymous, hates politicians, believes the internet alone will usher in freedom and prosperity throughout the world, and is very pissed off because he's unemployed while greedy banksters get their pockets filled. Don't know if that's a faithful depiction, though.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So Grillo supporters are like Pirate Party supporters.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Grillo supporters are like Pirate Party supporters.

The M5S' origins stem very much from this type of environment, yes. On the other hand, the current M5S electorate is a very different beast, and it seems to resist all categorization.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I have understood it mainly people who are physically unable to vote for socialist party but do not want to vote Berlusconi again (at least in Sicily).

These people should have no issue about PD.

[politicus]

I have understood it mainly people who are physically unable to vote for socialist party but do not want to vote Berlusconi again (at least in Sicily).

I can understand people not being psychologically able to vote for socialists, but physically? Do they get red commie spasms when they are in the voting booth every time the pencil gets near a left wing candidate?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I have understood it mainly people who are physically unable to vote for socialist party but do not want to vote Berlusconi again (at least in Sicily).

Err, surely these sorts vote NCD?