Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[palandio]

At least one of the pollsters is a joke pollster of epic dimensions.

[Antonio the Sixth]

EMG projections give a large lead to De Luca as well (42-37). So at least that seems to be getting clearer.

La7 also reported a rumor that Umbria is very close, but without giving any number.

[SPQR]

It's an utter mess in Liguria and Umbria.

[Andrea]

Rai projection confirm PD trailing in Umbria. 41 to 40%

[SPQR]

Rai projection confirm PD trailing in Umbria. 41 to 40%

Still waiting for La7 though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rai projection confirm PD trailing in Umbria. 41 to 40%

Still waiting for La7 though.

Masia is still holding back...

[SPQR]

Rai projection confirm PD trailing in Umbria. 41 to 40%

Still waiting for La7 though.

Masia is still holding back...

He's obviously afraid of Mentana

And he might well be,it seems that he got Liguria hilariously wrong.
According to Rai,32% Toti - 30% Paita.

[SPQR]

40% Marini
38% Ricci

According to EMG/La 7

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rai projection confirm PD trailing in Umbria. 41 to 40%

Still waiting for La7 though.

Masia is still holding back...

He's obviously afraid of Mentana

And he might well be,it seems that he got Liguria hilariously wrong.
According to Rai,32% Toti - 30% Paita.

Yeah, Mentana doesn't seem to have much trust in polls and projections. Still, an unreliable estimate is better than nothing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Marini leading 40-38.

Beat me to it.

[SPQR]

As for the regional elections: yeah,2 semi-pure tossups (Liguria and Campania) and one race which might be a surprise,Umbria.
PD lost in Perugia last year,because much like in Livorno it had governed it for decades and lost touch with the citizens. Now polls show a 3-5 points advantage for PD's candidate, Catiuscia Marini,but I really don't feel comfortable about it. I have friends there who are long-time PD supporters but will just stay at home,since they are tired of the regional party and leadership.

Ah,all those political journalists talking about a "complete surprise in Umbria"

[Andrea]

Ricci extending lead over Marini in Umbria according to Rai. 41.5% to 39.8% with 21% of their sample covered.

[Antonio the Sixth]

EMG projects Liguria for Toti 33-29 over Paita.

[SPQR]

EMG projects Liguria for Toti 33-29 over Paita.

And that leftist joke Pastorino (supported by Civati and bitter loser Cofferati) at 7%.

[Andrea]

Umbria projections

La7: Marini 40.5 Ricci 40.4

Rai : Ricci 40.5 Marini 39.7

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why, exactly, are things going so (relatively) badly for PD? What if anything has Renzi done to make himself unpopular?

[SPQR]

Why, exactly, are things going so (relatively) badly for PD? What if anything has Renzi done to make himself unpopular?

They're not that bad.
With respect to last year,he has governed for a full more year,with relatively unpopular reforms.
In Liguria,there was post-primary chaos,with a split on the left-wing side.
In Umbria,as I said in an earlier post,the local party has been doing badly for quite a bit. They're only now paying for it electorally.

[SPQR]

More in general,anyway,the PD is also paying general controversies arising at the local level,where often Renzi's "demolishing" of the old politicans hasn't quite worked yet.

[Senator Cris]

Marini won in Umbria.
Toti won in Liguria.

[windjammer]

Campania is a democrat pick up?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So Liguria's replaced Campania as the only region with an FI president?

[SPQR]

Turnout at 7PM was 39.2%. Voting continues until 11, so there might be a chance of reaching 50%.

http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/articoli/Regionali-crolla-affluenza-al-voto-un-elettore-su-due-In-Liguria-Umbria-e-Campania-meno-10-657a5efe-4517-4db5-89d3-35e01c4a024b.html?refresh_ce

If I'm translating this article right, it says that turnout is down 10 percentage points (!) overall, with the average being 52% turnout, from a high of 57% in Veneto, 55% in Umbria, Campagnia at 52%, 50% in Puglia, and less than 50% in Tuscana (48.2%) and Le Marche (49.8%).


Sono io giusto?

Yeah.
(But you say "ho ragione?")

[Andrea]

Disastrous result for Moretti. Maybe we won't see her anymore now....not that many will miss her

As for the "all political career ends in tears"...Spacca basically left PD to run again in Marche to finish 4th.

More in general,anyway,the PD is also paying general controversies arising at the local level,where often Renzi's "demolishing" of the old politicans hasn't quite worked yet.

Possibly because they haven't yet enough quality potential candidates on the ground to effectively replace the old guard at local level in some areas.

[SPQR]

Very poor result for Moretti. Maybe we won't see her anymore now....not that many will cry...

As for the "all political career ends in tears"...Spacca basically left PD to run again in Marche to finish 4th.

More in general,anyway,the PD is also paying general controversies arising at the local level,where often Renzi's "demolishing" of the old politicans hasn't quite worked yet.

Possibly because they haven't yet enough quality potential candidates on the ground to effectively replace the old guard at local level in some areas.

That's part of the story. The other part being that the "old guard" is VERY entrenched locally.

[Andrea]

Council chamber in Liguria will be fun...

Lega 5
Forza Italia 3
Fratelli d'Italia 1
Bonus for the winning candidate 6

PD 7 (plus Paita)

5 Stelle 6

Rete a Sinistra (Pastorino's fans) 1