Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why, exactly, are things going so (relatively) badly for PD? What if anything has Renzi done to make himself unpopular?

Well, Renzi's approvals have been middling for a while now - though they remain much higher than they use to be for most PMs after one year in office. The clash in the PD over the electoral reform seems to have played a significant role. Almost all the PD's old leaders have voted against it, and Civati left the party (with Fassina hinting that he might soon follow suit). The split within the left is what caused the defeat in Liguria, as a dissident PD candidate endorsed by Civati and former union leader Cofferati acted as a spoiler.

Apart from that, the results are not too shabby. Veneto was a pretty humiliating defeat, but not exactly a surprise (although Renzi was hoping to win it early on, it was clear for a while that the right would hold it). Umbria was embarrassingly close, but apparently it's due to local factors more than national ones. In the two southern regions, PD did very well, though that's probably mostly due to the personal appeal of its candidates. The most "Renzi-ish" candidates (Moretti in VT and Paita in LI) have both been defeated, but I don't think this necessarily indicates a disaffection with Renzi himself.

Overall, PD is down by 10 points on average in comparison with the landslide 2014 EP elections. This means that the political spectrum has become more evenly balanced. Still, if elections were held today, PD would still have an edge.

[palandio]

The split within the left is what caused the defeat in Liguria, as a dissident PD candidate endorsed by Civati and former union leader Cofferati acted as a spoiler.

Yes and no.
On the one hand no, because Pastorino's alliance included a fair number of radical left-wingers that cannot just be added to the PD result. Taking this into account, a hypothetical United PD in support of Paita would still have fallen short by ca. 2%.
And on the other hand maybe yes, because the infighting has damaged the political image of the center-left in Liguria. I could immagine that quite a few soft PD supporters might have been driven towards abstention and some also towards Toti, Salvatore or minor candidates.
In my eyes the combined Paita+Pastorino result is still quite an underperformance.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In my eyes the combined Paita+Pastorino result is still quite an underperformance.

Definitely. A 6.5-point defeat for Paita is rather unforgivable, even with Pastorino taking 9.5%. If PD had stayed at its 2014 EP levels, Paita would have won easily. So yes, that's some trouble for Renzi, but it's still too early to tell exactly how much trouble.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think M5S could break 40%, and even possibly 45%. Many right-wingers have an "anybody but the PD candidate" mentality. That's how M5S got its first major success, winning the Parma mayoral election.

[palandio]

Parma is an excellent example of the Anybody but the PD mentality.
In my eyes another striking example is the 2013 Messina mayoral election:

1st turn
Accorinti 19,939 votes (24.02%)
Calabrò (UDC+PD+six other lists) 41,453 votes (49.94%)
Garofalo (Center-right) 15,130 votes (18.49%)
3 other candidates (New Alliance, Five Stars, Reset!) each below 3%

2nd turn
Accorinti 47,866 votes
Calabrò 43,017 votes

And now look who Accorinti is: http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Renato_Accorinti_con_la_bandiera_della_pace.jpg

As it seems almost all of the center-right votes seem to have gone to a left-wing activist like Accorinti. Grillo at least uses "neither left nor right" rhetorics.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Mario Mauto takes his tiny party (and two of his three senators) from the governing majority.

[SPQR]

Mario Mauto takes his tiny party (and two of his three senators) from the governing majority.

They had been voting against the government for a few months.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mario Mauto takes his tiny party (and two of his three senators) from the governing majority.

They had been voting against the government for a few months.

Someone's seeking attention...

[Andrea]

Run offs today...

Pd (and anti-Renzi Casson, now 2 times mayoral reject) Venice. They are losing also Fermo, Nuoro and Matera.
They gained Trani and Mantova and held Lecco. They should hold also Macerata.

Lega hold Rovigo and centre right is holding Chieti.

Head to head in Arezzo...1 polling place left and PD behind (after the dig at Casson, I should not that here they are fielding a 30something Renzi's and Boschi's fan)

5 stars ahead in Venaria Reale and somewhere near Naples.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh... That's really bad news for the PD.

[Senator Cris]

PD lost in Enna.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Some more bad news for Renzi and PD: the migrant crisis and corruption scandal has damaged perceptions of his party. Support for the PD in polls show only 32% support, down from 41% last May (but still leading everyone else by significant margins).

And although 41% of Italians now believe no political party can be completely free of corruption, support for M5S rose to a new all-time high of 26%. The Northern League and Forza Italia tie at 14% each.

Renzi's personal approvals have fallen to 41% (down 8 percentage points), narrowly leading Matteo Salvini by 4 points (who rose from 32% to 37% approval now).

51% of Italians say the migrants should be returned to countries of origin.

http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/migration-crisis-and-corruption-takes-toll-on-italys-matteo-renzi-773587
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Additionally, 2 Senators defected from his majority on June 4th, narrowing Renzi's majority. Mario Mauro and Tito di Maggio, left to join smaller centrist parties. PD Deputy Chief Whip Giorgio Tonini brushed it off as "non-news", saying they had been voting with the opposition for weeks.

http://www.politico.eu/article/senate-defections-complicate-life-for-renzi/
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In other news, the Senate is looking at a bill that would legalize same-sex civil unions, which Renzi would like to see debated and voted on and enacted by the end of July.

There was a big protest today in Rome against the bill and the teachings of gender theories in schools, numbering 300,000 strong.

Polling indicates that 51% of Italians support same-sex civil unions. Italy is currently the only country in Western Europe without and recognition of same sex marriage or even LGBT rights. Since Ireland voted overwhelmingly to legalize it in May, LGBT groups are confident that Italy will be next.

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1824567/thousands-protest-rome-over-italys-same-sex-marriage-proposals

[Senator Cris]

New Ipsos poll:

Democratic Party 31.5%
5 Stars Movement 27.5%
North League 14.7%
Forza Italia 12.4%
Left 4.4%
Popular Area (New Centre-Right + Union of the Centre) 4.3%
Brothers of Italy-NA 4.2%
Others 1%

Runoffs:

Democratic Party 51.2%
Five Stars Movement 48.8%C

Democratic Party 61.5%
North League 38.5%

United Centre-Right 53.5%
Democratic Party 46.5%



Link of graphic (extra-large) --> http://www.corriere.it/politica/15_giugno_21/incognita-ballottaggi-sull-italicum-pd-batterebbe-di-poco-5-stelle-27589286-17dc-11e5-b9f9-a25699cf5023_foto_zoom_big.shtml

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So M5S is really capitalizing on the corruption scandal in the PD, huh?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Meh, I guess it could be worse. At least it's M5S that's on the rise, rather than Lega.

[FredLindq]

So United Centre-Right would get 53.5% in the second round against PD.

I do not get it. How would it be possible? A combined list off LN+FI+FDI? Is this even legal wit the new election law?

In the first round:
North League 14.7%
Forza Italia 12.4%
Popular Area (New Centre-Right + Union of the Centre) 4.3%
Brothers of Italy-NA 4.2%
Total 35.6%.

[palandio]

Yes, these Scenario C numbers just don't add up:
Even if we would assume that 100% of FI, LN and FdI voters go to the united center-right, this is 31.3%, slightly less than the PD's 31.5%. If you then take into account that the transfer to PD exceeds the transfer to the united Center-Right for all other parties (according to the poll), there is no way the Center-Right candidate beats the PD candidate.

Either this poll has inconsistent numbers or some guy from the journal screwed the numbers up before printing.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I mean obviously I don't want it to happen, but a Grillo administration would be such a hilarious trainwreck.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, Berlusconi was found guilty of corruption today, for bribing an opposition Senator into joining his party and toppling the Prodi government in 2008. He was sentenced to 3 years in jail.

Of course, none of this actually matters. He appealed the decision, and since the statute of limitation kicks in this November, there's no chance he will get to a definitive verdict.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And Renzi's school reform just passed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dennis Verdini, the leader of the pro-compromise faction of Forza Italia, is leaving the party with his supporters after Berlusconi made clear he's in full opposition mode against Renzi. This ensures that, even withoutthe PD's left, Renzi will probably have a majority to pass the Senate reform.

[politicus]

Dennis Verdini, the leader of the pro-compromise faction of Forza Italia, is leaving the party with his supporters after Berlusconi made clear he's in full opposition mode against Renzi. This ensures that, even withoutthe PD's left, Renzi will probably have a majority to pass the Senate reform.

Is Verdini going to form a new party?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dennis Verdini, the leader of the pro-compromise faction of Forza Italia, is leaving the party with his supporters after Berlusconi made clear he's in full opposition mode against Renzi. This ensures that, even withoutthe PD's left, Renzi will probably have a majority to pass the Senate reform.

Is Verdini going to form a new party?

Yes, though I'm willing to bet that it will be one of those parliamentary "parties" that, come the next elections, will either disappear or ally with one of the big fishes to survive.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Very "Italian Politics" news: Northern League senator Roberto Calderoli (previously best known for comparing a black cabinet minister to a non-human primate and then earnestly worrying that he had been cursed with African witchcraft) makes headlines for bringing the wrecking of legislation into the 20th century. I read this from The Times at the doctor's this morning and nobody is else is reporting in English, but basically: he is using some kind of software to spam half a million randomly-generated amendments to the Senate reform bill. As by senate rules, the whole set has to be printed for each senator, in total causing eighty tons of paper to be printed; which the article noted would be enough to collapse the senate floor. Lol.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Calderoli is a master troll, of the most vicious-yet-enjoyable kind. Obviously Italian parties in general have nothing to envy to US ones when it comes to finding tactics to filibuster legislation. The main difference is that Renzi has no qualm about "going nuclear".