Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

According to Reuters, 176 of the 315 Senators have said they favour maintaining a system of direct election (i.e. oppose Renzi's Senate reform).

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/14/italy-economy-renzi-idUSL5N10P31N20150814


So how can Renzi work around this? How does one go about convincing 18 more Senators to vote themselves out of a job?

[Antonio the Sixth]

According to Reuters, 176 of the 315 Senators have said they favour maintaining a system of direct election (i.e. oppose Renzi's Senate reform).

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/14/italy-economy-renzi-idUSL5N10P31N20150814


So how can Renzi work around this? How does one go about convincing 18 more Senators to vote themselves out of a job?

There are talks of new attempts to woo Berlusconi, but I don't know what Renzi would have to offer for him.

Otherwise, Renzi can give in and allow Senators to be elected, in exchange for the most important aspect, that is stripping away its confidence and part of its legislative powers.

[Barnes]

Personally, I would say that any deal that removes the Senate's power on confidence is a good deal - including retaining direct elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Personally, I would say that any deal that removes the Senate's power on confidence is a good deal - including retaining direct elections.

That's my opinion as well. I'm not sure what are Renzi's specific goals, though.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I would actively support retaining direct election of senators. I think it's in general better than not to elect upper houses, provided they function as a revising chamber and have an at least slightly different electoral system than the lower house.

[Senator Cris]

Salvini is now supporting an alliance with Forza Italia in the next general election. "It's the only way to beat Renzi" he said.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

Would Berlusconi agree to a coalition headed by Salvini?

[Senator Cris]

Would Berlusconi agree to a coalition headed by Salvini?

I think that there would be a centre-right primary. Salvini as the North League candidate, Governor Toti of Liguria as Forza Italia candidate, Giorgia Meloni as Brothers of Italy candidate, Former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto as candidate of the Conservatives and maybe Verona Mayor Flavio Tosi as candidate of the moderate wing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Salvini is now supporting an alliance with Forza Italia in the next general election. "It's the only way to beat Renzi" he said.

Fair enough, you were right and I stand corrected.

Though it's still far from a done deal.

[Senator Cris]

Salvini is now supporting an alliance with Forza Italia in the next general election. "It's the only way to beat Renzi" he said.

Fair enough, you were right and I stand corrected.

Though it's still far from a done deal.

It's not a done deal, but both Salvini and Berlusconi know that without an alliance (that means an unity list), the runoff will be Democratic Party vs. Five Stars Movement. If they want to push Five Stars Movement out of the runoff, an alliance is the only way.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

http://scenaripolitici.com/2015/09/sondaggio-euromedia-3-settembre-2015-csx-382-42-cdx-34-m5s-251.html

Okay, so if I'm reading this correctly (per favore, correggetemi se non ho ragione):

Euromedia's poll from 3 September shows that all the center-left parties take 38,2% to the all center-right party's  collective 34% to M5S's 25,1%.

However, since not all those parties get along very well, and the Italicum law ends the electoral favoritism for coalitions (si?), the individual parties go like this:

PD 30,6% (5,5% lead)
M5S 25,1%
LN 16,5%
FI 11,9%
SEL 3,1%
FdL 3,1%
NCD 2,5%
Altri 7,2%

Also, why are polls all over the place regarding Italy? Some show only a 3% lead for the PD, others show 11% leads. What is this?

Also, is it accurate to say that Lega Nord is gaining at the expense of Forza Italia, while M5S is gaining from PD?

[Simfan34]

How would a Lega-led coalition work?

[Zanas]

Also, why are polls all over the place regarding Italy? Some show only a 3% lead for the PD, others show 11% leads. What is this?

3 to 4-pt margins of error will do that to ya.

[Senator Cris]

North League and Forza Italia will run togheter. It's the only way to get the runoff.
Without that alliance, it will be Democratic Party vs. Five Stars Movement. Both Forza Italia, Salvini and the other centre-right parties don't want that.

[Senator Cris]

Renzi wants to start the final process for the Senate reform this week.
The left-wing of the Democratic Party is against the reform (no surprise, they are more conservative than the right) and some of them doesn't want even a deal with the big majority of the party. They want to do as they want. Hilarious.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is the mother of all battles for Renzi. His Senate majority has never been more precarious (aside from the PD left, several NCD bigwigs are also threatening not to support the reform). If he somehow manages to pull this off, his position will be considerably strengthened and it will be much harder for anyone to stop his other reforms (and after June 2016 he can go to elections and win a majority of his own). If he fails, this might be the end of his government, and only God knows what lies ahead for Italy.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Can he call a referendum to push his senate bills through?

Why are dissidents blocking the senate bill anyway? Pigheadedness? Seems like a strange hill for the left to die on, is what I'm saying.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why are dissidents blocking the senate bill anyway? Pigheadedness? Seems like a strange hill for the left to die on, is what I'm saying.

Yeah, as someone whose politics are generally in line with them (certainly more so than with Renzi), most Italian leftists are morons. Their arguments are mostly whining and concern trolling about muh democracy being in dangers because we won't be able to elect Senators anymore. These sorts of shenanigans are part of the reason why I'm much more supportive of Renzi than what my ideology would normally entail.

Anyway, there will be a referendum if the reform passes in both houses. The procedure to amend the Italian constitution is pretty hard.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

In other news from the world's most hilarious political system, Beppe Grillo got sentenced to a year in prison for slandering a scientists who supported nuclear energy: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34256761

Though he is unlikely to actually serve it, he also faces damages of €50,000.

He compared his situation to Nelson Mandela and Sandro Pertini: "If Pertini and Mandela ended up in prison, I can go there too for a cause I think is just and that has been supported by the overwhelming majority of Italians"

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, pretty insane that you can go to jail for defamation in Italy. That law needs to be changed.

Grillo is still a joke though.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If Five Star Movement won the next election, could Grillo serve as PM with criminal charges?

Also what are the StarPeople's opinion on the senate changes?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Five Star Movement won the next election, could Grillo serve as PM with criminal charges?

Also what are the StarPeople's opinion on the senate changes?

Grillo officially can't be a candidate or hold any office under the M5S banner, because he already has a criminal record (he was involved in a car crash long ago). M5S politics are hilarious, aren't they?

[rob in cal]

   Would five star win against either the left or the right if it reached the runoff?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Most polls show the Star-Eyed People narrowly beating the right, and the left narrowly beating the Stars.

Does Grillo have a "prime ministerial candidate" to act as his puppet in the next election Tony?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Most polls show the Star-Eyed People narrowly beating the right, and the left narrowly beating the Stars.

Does Grillo have a "prime ministerial candidate" to act as his puppet in the next election Tony?

Until now, they have indicated Grillo as their "coalition leader" (the law doesn't actually mandate parties to select a PM candidate). If M5S won the election, my guess would be that their PM would be Luigi Di Maio. He's one of their most media savvy figures and since Grillo took a step back he's become the movement's main unofficial spokesman.