Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide
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Author Topic: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide  (Read 291656 times)
SPQR
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« Reply #800 on: October 17, 2016, 03:24:34 AM »

  So, whats the likely political fallout if the "no" side prevails?

Hard to say, but Renzi will be in serious trouble - possibly close to a lame duck. He said he wouldn't resign, but Renzi isn't exactly known for keeping his word.

That said, without a voting system that guarantees a clear winner, I doubt many will want to go to the polls.
Well, the "Italicum" electoral law is already in place, and its fate is independent from that of the Constitutional Reform, at least formally.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #801 on: October 17, 2016, 06:31:32 PM »

  So, whats the likely political fallout if the "no" side prevails?

Hard to say, but Renzi will be in serious trouble - possibly close to a lame duck. He said he wouldn't resign, but Renzi isn't exactly known for keeping his word.

That said, without a voting system that guarantees a clear winner, I doubt many will want to go to the polls.
Well, the "Italicum" electoral law is already in place, and its fate is independent from that of the Constitutional Reform, at least formally.

The Italicum isn't worth much if the Senate, elected under the old system, still needs to give the government confidence.

Also, title edited to reflect the current campaign.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #802 on: October 26, 2016, 02:33:32 PM »

If anyone is wondering, current polls have No around 3-5 points ahead of Yes, with about a quarter of the voters still undecided.

Still hoping Renzi can turn this around.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #803 on: October 26, 2016, 03:14:38 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 03:16:20 PM by Comrade David »

On the basis of a sample of one person, I can now project that Italian Jews are safe "yes" and safe D.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #804 on: October 26, 2016, 03:26:12 PM »

On the basis of a sample of one person, I can now project that Italian Jews are safe "yes" and safe D.

Wait, you're Italian? Huh
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DavidB.
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« Reply #805 on: October 26, 2016, 09:02:47 PM »

On the basis of a sample of one person, I can now project that Italian Jews are safe "yes" and safe D.
Wait, you're Italian? Huh
No (though I'd obviously also be safe D, the only sane choice, and therefore safe yes), but a guy I hung out with on Yom Kippur was Smiley Couldn't resist the urge to discuss politics with him...
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #806 on: October 27, 2016, 07:52:48 PM »

On the basis of a sample of one person, I can now project that Italian Jews are safe "yes" and safe D.
Wait, you're Italian? Huh
No (though I'd obviously also be safe D, the only sane choice, and therefore safe yes), but a guy I hung out with on Yom Kippur was Smiley Couldn't resist the urge to discuss politics with him...

FF!

(FTR, being safe D doesn't always translate into safe Yes, depressingly Sad)
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Iannis
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« Reply #807 on: October 29, 2016, 08:24:06 AM »

I am slightly in favour of the reforms, but the indirect consequence wil be an electoral system in which one single party, even with 30%, can have the majority of seats, after a second round, so also Five Star Movement, and it would be a tragedy.
That's why I prefer that one chamber, the Senate, will remain as now, proportional, so that no crazy leader can have all the power
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #808 on: October 29, 2016, 01:19:39 PM »

I am slightly in favour of the reforms, but the indirect consequence wil be an electoral system in which one single party, even with 30%, can have the majority of seats, after a second round, so also Five Star Movement, and it would be a tragedy.
That's why I prefer that one chamber, the Senate, will remain as now, proportional, so that no crazy leader can have all the power

No. With 30%, there will be a runoff between the top 2, meaning that the winning party will have won a majority.

I don't think the Italicum is perfect, far from it, but this talking point needs to die.
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Iannis
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« Reply #809 on: October 29, 2016, 06:38:11 PM »

I am slightly in favour of the reforms, but the indirect consequence wil be an electoral system in which one single party, even with 30%, can have the majority of seats, after a second round, so also Five Star Movement, and it would be a tragedy.
That's why I prefer that one chamber, the Senate, will remain as now, proportional, so that no crazy leader can have all the power

No. With 30%, there will be a runoff between the top 2, meaning that the winning party will have won a majority.

I don't think the Italicum is perfect, far from it, but this talking point needs to die.
I know how it works.
I can't in any case tolerate that a party like M5s can have absolute majority
Keeping the Senate this nightmare is impossible
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SPQR
italian-boy
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« Reply #810 on: November 03, 2016, 10:09:56 AM »

I am slightly in favour of the reforms, but the indirect consequence wil be an electoral system in which one single party, even with 30%, can have the majority of seats, after a second round, so also Five Star Movement, and it would be a tragedy.
That's why I prefer that one chamber, the Senate, will remain as now, proportional, so that no crazy leader can have all the power

No. With 30%, there will be a runoff between the top 2, meaning that the winning party will have won a majority.

I don't think the Italicum is perfect, far from it, but this talking point needs to die.
I know how it works.
I can't in any case tolerate that a party like M5s can have absolute majority
Keeping the Senate this nightmare is impossible

You can't design electoral laws just in order to prevent a party from taking power.
If the M5S will win the next elections, it will be due to the ignorance of the electorate and the inability of the Italian political class.
That's the sad truth.

A more efficient government and Parliament, which are the main goals of the constitutional reform, are what is needed in order to fight populisms such as the M5S.
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« Reply #811 on: November 03, 2016, 10:43:18 AM »

If Renzi wins the referendum, will he call a new election to try and get a friendly senate ASAP and gain a "mandate"?
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SPQR
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« Reply #812 on: November 03, 2016, 10:57:10 AM »

If Renzi wins the referendum, will he call a new election to try and get a friendly senate ASAP and gain a "mandate"?
Elections in the spring would be a real possibility.

But that's a pretty big if, since "No" is currently leading in all polls.
The consensus is that the race is at 48% vs 52%, with 15/20% still undecided.
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« Reply #813 on: November 04, 2016, 10:48:26 AM »

http://www.politico.eu/article/silvio-berlusconi-could-help-matteo-renzi-in-referendum-italy-no/

nooooooooooo
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Zinneke
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« Reply #814 on: November 04, 2016, 10:49:53 AM »

If Renzi wins the referendum, will he call a new election to try and get a friendly senate ASAP and gain a "mandate"?
Elections in the spring would be a real possibility.

But that's a pretty big if, since "No" is currently leading in all polls.
The consensus is that the race is at 48% vs 52%, with 15/20% still undecided.

Doesn't a ''No'' trigger an election too, given Renzi's resignation.
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« Reply #815 on: November 05, 2016, 09:01:42 PM »

Is there any actual argument for 'No'? At all? Sincere question.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #816 on: November 05, 2016, 09:02:11 PM »

If Renzi wins the referendum, will he call a new election to try and get a friendly senate ASAP and gain a "mandate"?
Elections in the spring would be a real possibility.

But that's a pretty big if, since "No" is currently leading in all polls.
The consensus is that the race is at 48% vs 52%, with 15/20% still undecided.

Doesn't a ''No'' trigger an election too, given Renzi's resignation.

No is a leap in the dark. No one knows what Renzi will really do, and no one knows what happens if he resigns.
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Nathan
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« Reply #817 on: November 05, 2016, 09:03:43 PM »

If Renzi wins the referendum, will he call a new election to try and get a friendly senate ASAP and gain a "mandate"?
Elections in the spring would be a real possibility.

But that's a pretty big if, since "No" is currently leading in all polls.
The consensus is that the race is at 48% vs 52%, with 15/20% still undecided.

Doesn't a ''No'' trigger an election too, given Renzi's resignation.

No is a leap in the dark. No one knows what Renzi will really do, and no one knows what happens if he resigns.

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #818 on: November 05, 2016, 09:05:36 PM »


There certainly are. There is a legitimate worry that, not the constitutional reform itself, but the reform combined with the current electoral law, essentially means giving whichever party wins full control over policy. And considering what parties could win the next elections, it is something to be scared about.

My only counter-argument is that I'm willing to take the risk, if the alternative is to keep having these dysfunctional "grand coalition" governments forever.
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Axel Foley
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« Reply #819 on: November 14, 2016, 06:54:42 PM »
« Edited: November 14, 2016, 07:12:22 PM by Axel Foley »

As an Italian leftist without a representation in the actual political spectrum of my native country, I will vote NO. I think it's the only way to prevent in the next general election a take-over by the dangerous Five Star Movement or by the Right( whose actual leader Salvini is an alt-right way worse even than Silvio Berlusconi).
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Mike88
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« Reply #820 on: November 14, 2016, 07:11:35 PM »

I'm trying to understand this reform, but it seems to me very weird and confusing. So, the senate will be reduced, and the election for congress will have a second round between the two most voted parties in the first round, right?
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Axel Foley
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« Reply #821 on: November 14, 2016, 07:18:03 PM »

I'm trying to understand this reform, but it seems to me very weird and confusing. So, the senate will be reduced, and the election for congress will have a second round between the two most voted parties in the first round, right?

You're right. But the way to indirectly elect the new, pretty unuseful, Senate is yet to be announced and the electoral law for the Lower House is in my opionion pretty insane...and it is the only law that could bring to power the clownish Five Star Movement or the alt-Right leaded by Matteo Salvini( trust me, with Grillo or Salvini in power even Silvio Berlusconi would resemble a Winston Churchill-type leader).
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Mike88
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« Reply #822 on: November 14, 2016, 07:35:48 PM »

I'm trying to understand this reform, but it seems to me very weird and confusing. So, the senate will be reduced, and the election for congress will have a second round between the two most voted parties in the first round, right?

You're right. But the way to indirectly elect the new, pretty unuseful, Senate is yet to be announced and the electoral law for the Lower House is in my opionion pretty insane...and it is the only law that could bring to power the clownish Five Star Movement or the alt-Right leaded by Matteo Salvini( trust me, with Grillo or Salvini in power even Silvio Berlusconi would resemble a Winston Churchill-type leader).

Hmm... Yikes! Honestly, if i was Italian i wouldn't know how to vote. If the No wins, Renzi resigns and political caos is back, and if Yes wins you guys get this weird, WTF electoral system. It's a lose lose situation unfortunately. Sad
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Axel Foley
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« Reply #823 on: November 14, 2016, 08:01:18 PM »
« Edited: November 14, 2016, 08:03:15 PM by Axel Foley »

Yeah, the sad thing is that I am going to vote on 12/04 choosing for the lesser evil, as I always did.

Meanwhile, postcards from Florence, Sunday 13th of November...it remembers me about something...





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SPQR
italian-boy
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« Reply #824 on: November 15, 2016, 08:36:56 AM »

I'm trying to understand this reform, but it seems to me very weird and confusing. So, the senate will be reduced, and the election for congress will have a second round between the two most voted parties in the first round, right?
The Senate will be reduced in terms of Senators and, more importantly, of powers.
It will not be able to kick out the government anymore, and will focus exclusively on local matters, concerning the regions.

Right now, instead, the House and the Senate both discuss the exact same topics, can both give votes of confidence to the government. The only thing differentiating them is the electorate (only those 25 or older can vote for the Senate).
Oh, and also, right now any law has to be approved by both chambers. If even a comma is changed in either chamber, the other one has to approve it from scratch. This really affects the legislative process.


As for the electoral law, yes, the current law has a second round between the two top parties. But a recent agreement between Renzi and part of PD's minority included changes to that.
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