Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Famous Mortimer]

This situation reminds me of the 1984 Democratic primaries between Mondale and Hart.

[Keystone Phil]

Though I had hoped for a close competitive battle, it's a great victory for right leaning Italians.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I wasn't under the impression that Renzi was at all a left-winger within the context of PD.

The hope for a left-wing turn for the PD is nonexistent at this point and probably will be so for at least a decade. In this context, I couldn't really care less where its members position themselves ideologically (since even the "real leftists" like Bersani and D'Alema were centrists in practice). Renzi is left-wing in the sense that he's actually trying to make things marginally better, something on which most of the PD has effectively given up.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The new Renzi-appointed PD executive board is majority female and has an average age of 36.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

The new Renzi-appointed PD executive board is majority female

Good.

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In principle neutral, but in the context of Italian political culture probably also good.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm turning into a Renzi hack. He gave a really excellent interview today at Ballaro'. Of course we'll still waiting for the deeds, but he's too smart not to deliver on what he so forcefully promised.

[Andrea]

Final PD results finally released

Renzi 1,895,252
Cuperlo 510,970
Civati 399,473

Total voters: 2,814,801

[Antonio the Sixth]

Final PD results finally released

Renzi 1,895,252
Cuperlo 510,970
Civati 399,473

Total voters: 2,814,801

These numbers don't add up.

[Andrea]

Final PD results finally released

Renzi 1,895,252
Cuperlo 510,970
Civati 399,473

Total voters: 2,814,801

These numbers don't add up.

9.106 spoilt ballots

[Antonio the Sixth]

Final PD results finally released

Renzi 1,895,252
Cuperlo 510,970
Civati 399,473

Total voters: 2,814,801

These numbers don't add up.

9.106 spoilt ballots

Ah, I see. So Renzi won 67.55%. Sad to see his margin over Cuperlo shrink below 50 points, but at least he's still over 2/3rds.

[FredLindq]

I read that FDiI will use the old AN logo in the EP-elections. La Destra seems angry over this and it might be hard for the to have an alliance and thereby getting less than the 4 % nedled for seats in the EP. An alliance between FDI, La Destra and for example the Pensiones party could get som seats and give the EDD or ECR some extra seats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So it's been quiet guys. Anything new?

So, let's see:

Fassina (undersecretary of the economy, PD of the pseudo-leftist kind) resigned after Renzi poked fun at him in an interview.

Alfano officially said he agrees with Renzi on electoral reform, though I'll believe him after I see him. Hopefully things start moving fast now.

Berlusconi once again thinking about running his daughter Marina in the last election.

Bersani recently made an aneurysm and has been hospitalized. Not sure how he's doing.

So yeah, not much by Italian standards.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So it's been quiet guys. Anything new?

So, let's see:

Fassina (undersecretary of the economy, PD of the pseudo-leftist kind) resigned after Renzi poked fun at him in an interview.

Could you explain to me the European obssession with resigning? Like Latvia's government "falling" over a supermarket collapse, and this?

Italy is not Europe - it's a very special place. Fassina had already threatened to resign a while back, over the squabbles that accompanied the last budget. He probably was waiting for a reason to leave this government, in which he's pretty uncomfortable for obvious reasons. Besides, like all the PD pseudo-leftists, he hates Renzi's guts and probably wanted it to be known.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

What kind of electoral reform is being considered?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What kind of electoral reform is being considered?

Renzi made 3 proposals:
- The "mayor of Italy" system (yes that's how it's being called), which, if I understand correctly, basically means a direct election of the PM in a two-round system and a majority bonus to the winner's party.
- A Spanish system, with PR in very small constituencies so as to favor larger parties.
- A return to the 1993-2005 electoral law, the so-called "mattarellum", with some tweaks once again to ensure a stable majority.

I think Alfano expressed a preference for the former. It's also to see what Berlusconi will do, since Renzi indicated he's available for a broader agreement.

[Senator Cris]

Berlusconi, probably, is for the Spanish system

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

What kind of electoral reform is being considered?

Renzi made 3 proposals:
- The "mayor of Italy" system (yes that's how it's being called), which, if I understand correctly, basically means a direct election of the PM in a two-round system and a majority bonus to the winner's party.
- A Spanish system, with PR in very small constituencies so as to favor larger parties.
- A return to the 1993-2005 electoral law, the so-called "mattarellum", with some tweaks once again to ensure a stable majority.

I think Alfano expressed a preference for the former. It's also to see what Berlusconi will do, since Renzi indicated he's available for a broader agreement.

Oh my God, that first one is awful.

But that's just my own distaste for directly-elected PMs and majority bonuses talking. Which if any do you support?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They tried that in Israel. It did not work.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

They tried that in Israel.

I know.

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I know.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Berlusconi, probably, is for the Spanish system

Berlusconi, just this once, would be right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Which if any do you support?

To be honest, I'd be fine with any of them, as long as it works and ensures that never again we'll have to stand a situation like this one.

I understand your distaste for directly elected PMs, it's obviously very un-parliamentarian, and probably particularly unfit for a country like Italy where "strong personalities" have rarely done any good. That said, a national runoff system could be very beneficial in tactical terms. PD is only one of the 3 parties with an appeal broad enough to reach 50% (both Berlusconi and Grillo are divisive personalities loved by their own fans but hated/feared by everybody else, while the PD is just... uninspiring). Indeed, that's why PD has won nearly every local election since 2011, even when their national standing was awful, like in May-June 2013. So the runoff+majority bonus system might maximize our chances to end up with a strong, stable, PD government - which is the necessary, if obviously not sufficient, condition to stop the current disaster.

[Niemeyerite]

You won't like the Spanish system. It sucks.

[Vosem]

They tried that in Israel. It did not work.

Eh; in Israel, winning the PM election didn't give you a 'majority bonus'; it just meant you became PM.  I don't think a system where whoever comes in first place is actually guaranteed a legislative majority has been tried.

[Gary J]

I really do not understand why Italians want a deliberately disproportional electoral system, designed to manufacture an unjustified Parliamentary majority. It almost guarantees that parties supported by the majority of the electorate will be in opposition and the government would have more power than any truly proportional system would give it. I question if such a system can even be defined as democratic.

It is true that majoritarian systems can also produce disproportionate results. However that is not an automatic result of the systems themselves, just a consequence of a particular vote distribution.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really do not understand why Italians want a deliberately disproportional electoral system, designed to manufacture an unjustified Parliamentary majority.

One might agree or disagree, but the reason why creating parliamentary majorities is a primary concern of Italian political debate should be obvious to anyone vaguely familiar with recent developments...