Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide
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  Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide
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Author Topic: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide  (Read 291595 times)
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Hashemite
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« Reply #350 on: July 08, 2014, 10:50:00 AM »

(Shameless plug)

If anybody's curious, I've published my analysis of the EP election in Italy and I have included a lot of stats about vote flows and voter demographics which may be of interest to some people here.

http://welections.wordpress.com/2014/07/08/eu-2014-italy/
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SPQR
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« Reply #351 on: July 12, 2014, 02:58:22 AM »

Today Renzi met with M5S leaders, who finally agreed to have a discussion/negotiation on electoral reform (for which they unveiled their own proposal). The meeting was broadcast on live stream. So, in short, there's still a long way to go, but both sides showed some good will and further meetings should follow. If they're serious about this, it's actually a great occasion to significantly improve the law.

This is because most of the right has flaked out of their commitment to this, isn't it?

Interestingly, Berlusconi had actually re-endorsed the compromise a few days before M5S led their availability be known (of course Berlusconi's word is never worth much, but still at least in theory the plan was back on track). What's really surprising is the M5S' sudden openness to discussion and compromise with other parties, something that was thought impossible mere weeks ago. The results of the last elections may have something to do with it though.

I can imagine some more rabid 5-star activists are none too happy, no?

Not as far as I know. The most rabid wing of the M5S base basically consist of Grillo cultists who'll support anything he supports and despise anything he despises - so I guess as long as Grillo gives his blessing to these efforts (he might very well disown them at some point) things will go on.

The whole Grillo cult is really weird, its hard to see the appeal of the guy. Who are the Grillo cultists?

He speaks loud and (at least somewhat rightfully) thrashes the Italian political class for its evil deeds. He's basically your standard 21st century demagogue, just without the xenophobic undertones that accompanies it elsewhere and instead with a weird fascination for Teh Internetz instead. I don't have details about the demographics of the M5S hardcore, but the common stereotype holds that it's mostly made of youth with little economic capital but at least some cultural capital. The typical postmaterialist internet activist who's probably fond of Anonymous, hates politicians, believes the internet alone will usher in freedom and prosperity throughout the world, and is very pissed off because he's unemployed while greedy banksters get their pockets filled. Don't know if that's a faithful depiction, though.
Indeed.
Plus all of the conspiracy guys.


As for the Perot comparison,I would disagree. M5S tends to be much more violent,speech-wise.
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« Reply #352 on: July 12, 2014, 05:48:19 PM »

They seem like fleshed out and angrier Pirates to me.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #353 on: July 15, 2014, 09:35:41 AM »

Salvini comes out in support of a flat tax. A nice reminder for the morons who think the European far-right is "economically leftist".
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EPG
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« Reply #354 on: July 15, 2014, 12:47:07 PM »

Salvini comes out in support of a flat tax. A nice reminder for the morons who think the European far-right is "economically leftist".

You shouldn't call people morons because they disagree with you; it's an offensive term. One human data point does not disprove a general claim about parties as diverse as FN, PVV, DF, Finns, etc.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #355 on: July 18, 2014, 07:36:44 AM »

Berlusconi has been acquitted in the Ruby the Heart Stealer/underage sex case. The ban on serving in elected office is now lifted.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #356 on: July 18, 2014, 08:05:22 AM »

Shocked Really no idea what happened. I can't help but wonder if Napolitano had some influence in this.


The ban on serving in elected office is now lifted.

No. The sentence under which he is banned from holding office for 6 years had nothing to do with this case.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #357 on: July 18, 2014, 12:38:41 PM »

Berlusconi needs to keel over already.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #358 on: July 18, 2014, 04:17:20 PM »

Shocked Really no idea what happened. I can't help but wonder if Napolitano had some influence in this.


The ban on serving in elected office is now lifted.

No. The sentence under which he is banned from holding office for 6 years had nothing to do with this case.

Just reporting what I saw from several media sources (none of which were Il Giornale Wink ). 
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #359 on: July 18, 2014, 04:28:59 PM »

Shocked Really no idea what happened. I can't help but wonder if Napolitano had some influence in this.


The ban on serving in elected office is now lifted.

No. The sentence under which he is banned from holding office for 6 years had nothing to do with this case.

Just reporting what I saw from several media sources (none of which were Il Giornale Wink ). 

Foreign media are prone to getting things wrong (especially when the picture is THAT complicated).
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #360 on: July 18, 2014, 06:32:13 PM »

Shocked Really no idea what happened. I can't help but wonder if Napolitano had some influence in this.


The ban on serving in elected office is now lifted.

No. The sentence under which he is banned from holding office for 6 years had nothing to do with this case.

Just reporting what I saw from several media sources (none of which were Il Giornale Wink ). 

Foreign media are prone to getting things wrong (especially when the picture is THAT complicated).

So I was also told that the "two year ban" (I assume the individual meant six year) wasn't struck down but the lifetime ban was. That isn't true either?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #361 on: July 18, 2014, 06:38:23 PM »

Shocked Really no idea what happened. I can't help but wonder if Napolitano had some influence in this.


The ban on serving in elected office is now lifted.

No. The sentence under which he is banned from holding office for 6 years had nothing to do with this case.

Just reporting what I saw from several media sources (none of which were Il Giornale Wink ). 

Foreign media are prone to getting things wrong (especially when the picture is THAT complicated).

So I was also told that the "two year ban" (I assume the individual meant six year) wasn't struck down but the lifetime ban was. That isn't true either?

The lifetime ban was from the appealed sentence, so yes obviously it won't take effect (it never had, anyway).
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swl
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« Reply #362 on: July 29, 2014, 09:57:31 AM »
« Edited: July 29, 2014, 11:23:17 AM by swl »

The Senate started discussing the constitutional bill proposed by Renzi, which would drastically reduce its power. Of course, many Senators are opposed to the bill. They filled 7800 amendments, and started discussing them at the average speed of 3 per day... It looks like a defining moment for Renzi.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #363 on: July 29, 2014, 11:43:20 AM »

The Senate started discussing the constitutional bill proposed by Renzi, which would drastically reduce its power. Of course, many Senators are opposed to the bill. They filled 7800 amendments, and started discussing them at the average speed of 3 per day... It looks like a defining moment for Renzi.

Indeed... If he doesn't manage to get it through by September, things will probably go downhill from there.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #364 on: August 02, 2014, 02:31:59 AM »

The Senate started discussing the constitutional bill proposed by Renzi, which would drastically reduce its power. Of course, many Senators are opposed to the bill. They filled 7800 amendments, and started discussing them at the average speed of 3 per day... It looks like a defining moment for Renzi.

Indeed... If he doesn't manage to get it through by September, things will probably go downhill from there.

Does this mean it passed? I thought the vote was next week?

Also, what's with SEL's opposition to weakening the Senate? I thought left-wing parties are generally more opposed to upper chambers.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #365 on: August 02, 2014, 03:52:09 AM »

The Senate started discussing the constitutional bill proposed by Renzi, which would drastically reduce its power. Of course, many Senators are opposed to the bill. They filled 7800 amendments, and started discussing them at the average speed of 3 per day... It looks like a defining moment for Renzi.

Indeed... If he doesn't manage to get it through by September, things will probably go downhill from there.

Does this mean it passed? I thought the vote was next week?

Also, what's with SEL's opposition to weakening the Senate? I thought left-wing parties are generally more opposed to upper chambers.

The Italian hard-left is, for some reason, obsessed with the fear of an "authoritarian drift" of Italian politics. They think that if the "checks and balances" of the Italian constitution are weakened, democracy will be in danger and the PM will become some kind of quasi-dictator. Instinctive anti-Renzism may also play a big role.

Anyway, this is fantastic news. It wasn't the final vote, but the bill's key provision was passed with 194 ayes (of ~320), a solid majority. Now they say the final vote might come next week.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #366 on: August 04, 2014, 12:39:02 PM »

Bills can be passed article by article in Italian parliamentary procedure? Or was the reform package introduced as multiple separate pieces of legislation?

I think that votes on specific articles (which serve to summarily dismiss flocks of amendments and do not preclude the need for a final vote on the entire bill) are a fairly common procedure in Italian and French legislative processes. Doesn't that exist in the US?
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« Reply #367 on: August 04, 2014, 12:55:38 PM »

Bills can be passed article by article in Italian parliamentary procedure? Or was the reform package introduced as multiple separate pieces of legislation?

I think that votes on specific articles (which serve to summarily dismiss flocks of amendments and do not preclude the need for a final vote on the entire bill) are a fairly common procedure in Italian and French legislative processes. Doesn't that exist in the US?

Yes, which is why I deleted the post I made asking the question. I realized I'd misread the article.
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« Reply #368 on: August 07, 2014, 01:23:58 PM »

So it looks like Italy's back in recession again Sad Again.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/07/business/international/italy-falls-back-into-recession-raising-concern-for-eurozone-economy.html?_r=0
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #369 on: August 07, 2014, 04:35:01 PM »


I don't know what to say. I guess it will take time to get the country back on track. We can get there... but only if the Italian voters don't screw up.

On the bright side, Senate reform is about to pass! Smiley Final vote probably tonight or tomorrow.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #370 on: August 07, 2014, 07:26:06 PM »


On the bright side, Senate reform is about to pass! Smiley Final vote probably tonight or tomorrow.

Ok I think I finally found a source that explained the process.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/renzi-to-test-senate-resistance-on-plans-to-remake-italian-state.html

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So that earlier vote of 194-126 (60.6%) basically guarantees there will be a referendum because there won't be a two-thirds supermajority on the floor vote, right?
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swl
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« Reply #371 on: August 08, 2014, 06:57:07 AM »
« Edited: August 08, 2014, 07:11:20 AM by swl »

So that earlier vote of 194-126 (60.6%) basically guarantees there will be a referendum because there won't be a two-thirds supermajority on the floor vote, right?
Today's vote gives a hint of what may happen: the opponents decided to abstain and the reform just passed in the Senate with 100% of the votes.

But there is still a long way to go according to your article.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #372 on: August 08, 2014, 11:06:39 AM »

Yes, it's likely that we will have a referendum as well, but I wouldn't worry too much about it, as Italians will be all too happy to get rid of the hated Senate. Tongue Yes, the path is still very long (it might be a year or two before the reform is written in stone), but the hardest part - getting the Senate to pass the reform - has been done.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #373 on: August 08, 2014, 11:43:24 PM »

So does Renzi really do the no necktie thing regularly?
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #374 on: August 22, 2014, 07:27:08 AM »

Apulia poll for the Regional Election of 2015. The SWG poll is a PD internal.

CS Primary

Voters that with great probability will go to vote:

Former Bari Mayor Michele Emiliano (PD) 65%
Senator and Apulia Assessor Dario Stefano (SEL) 25%
Assessor Guglielmo Minervini (PD) 10%
Undecided 24%

With leaners:

Former Bari Mayor Michele Emiliano (PD) 59%
Senator and Apulia Assessor Dario Stefano (SEL) 23%
Assessor Guglielmo Minervini (PD) 18%
Undecided 21%

CD Primary

With MEP and Former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto (FI)

Voters that with great probability will go to vote:

MEP and Former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto (FI) 50%
Bari Province President Francesco Schittulli (Schittulli Movement) 34%
Lecce Mayor Paolo Perrone (FI) 13%
Former MEP Sergio Silvestris (FI) 3%

With leaners:

MEP and Former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto (FI) 54%
Bari Province President Francesco Schittulli (Schittulli Movement) 27%
Lecce Mayor Paolo Perrone (FI) 16%
Former MEP Sergio Silvestris (FI) 3%

Without MEP and Former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto (FI)

Voters that with great probability will go to vote:

Bari Province President Francesco Schittulli (Schittulli Movement) 69%
Lecce Mayor Paolo Perrone (FI) 24%
Former MEP Sergio Silvestris (FI) 7%

With leaners:

Bari Province President Francesco Schittulli (Schittulli Movement) 60%
Lecce Mayor Paolo Perrone (FI) 30%
Former MEP Sergio Silvestris (FI) 10%

General Election Match-Ups:

Former Bari Mayor Michele Emiliano (CS) 43%
Bari Province President Francesco Schittulli (CD) 31%
A M5S candidate (M5S) 21%
Others 5%
Undecided 17%

Bari Province President Francesco Schittulli (CD) 36%
Assessor Guglielmo Minervini (CS) 32%
A M5S candidate (M5S) 24%
Others 8%
Undecided 20%

Senator and Apulia Assessor Dario Stefano (CS) 35%
Bari Province President Francesco Schittulli (CD) 33%
A M5S candidate (M5S) 25%
Others 7%
Undecided 20%

Former Bari Mayor Michele Emiliano (CS) 43%
MEP and Former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto (CD) 35%
A M5S candidate (M5S) 19%
Others 3%
Undecided 14%

MEP and Former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto (CD) 40%
Assessor Guglielmo Minervini (CS) 30%
A M5S candidate (M5S) 24%
Others 6%
Undecided 18%

Senator and Apulia Assessor Dario Stefano (CS) 33%
MEP and Former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto (CD) 39%
A M5S candidate (M5S) 22%
Others 6%
Undecided 19%

Former Bari Mayor Michele Emiliano (CS) 45%
Lecce Mayor Paolo Perrone (CD) 30%
A M5S candidate (M5S) 19%
Others 6%
Undecided 16%

Former Bari Mayor Michele Emiliano (CS) 51%
Former MEP Sergio Silvestris (CD) 24%
A M5S candidate (M5S) 19%
Others 6%
Undecided 16%

http://bari.repubblica.it/cronaca/2014/08/21/news/sondaggio-94192648/#gallery-slider=94201953

My Opinion:
Given the weakness of M5S at Regional Elections and their recent comments on ISIS ("elevate terrorists at interlocutors") those percentages are too high.

@AntonioV. I think that it's time to renamed the thread in "Italy 2014: The road to Regionals Elections"
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