Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Senator Cris]

[Max Stirner]

the only real opponents of renzi are in his party...

[Boston Bread]

How is PD getting all these victories? They must be the only party in Europe that has become more popular (at least election-wise) after they got into power.

[EPG]

It is rather strange. The fundamentals are bad. There is still a recession and unemployment is rising. On the other hand, Italy has repudiated austerity; its debt/GDP is above 130% and rising. Italy has made no meaningful impact in European debates and much of this year's national debate has been on the fallow subject of electoral reform.

How, in spite of all these? First, the PD replaced Letta with Renzi as PM before the European Parliament elections. They were the biggest election so far, and it was effectively during a political honeymoon. Renzi's budget policy so far has been tax cuts. Cut taxes and you get praised by both anti-austerity believers and the Wall Street Journal. The economy may be doing badly, but at least the government is on your side. What's not to like? This game eventually ended Berlusconi's career, but global yields have dropped since then.

Second, Renzi has adopting many elements of Berlusconi's strategy: not just tax cuts but also the criticism of Europe and mixing a rhetoric of radicalism and liberalism with an absence of actual threats to vested interests. Renzi refrains from the PD's usual outright personal anathema against Berlusconi, who in turn publicly supports Renzi on many topics. This has undermined Forza Italia.

Third, Renzi embodies generational change within both the PD and Italian politics generally. This might appeal to young supporters of M5S and voters who didn't want to be governed by former communists who chose Forza Italia instead. But don't underestimate the value of tax cuts in creating these positive feelings.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Salvini is verging on overtaking FI in opinion polls.

Renzi must be the luckiest politician in the world - I mean he gets to face three joke parties and seemingly nobody else despite rapidly worsening fundamentals. If I were him, I'd call snap elections now just to get some kind of "mandate".

Oh and some Movement Five Star nobodies decided to disobey His Holiness Grilo, and appear on TV. Grillo had an e-sulk and promptly excommunicated them in a "popular vote".

[EPG]

He simply realised the popular low-tax aspects of Berlusconi's manifesto, sidelined the unpopular parts of his own party, and added his own shiny new young face to it, while the Keynesian stimulus seems completely ineffective and lets Renzi wait for some future successor to pay the bill.

The so-called joke parties collectively outpoll the PD, which could matter in a future Senate election if there is an anti-European majority among M5S, FI and LN. Renzi's majority is built on not just PD but also one party which didn't run last time and two parties which have withered since then.

[Keystone Phil]

Why the hell is Lega Nord doing so well again? This Salvini guy is worse than Bossi. He's more dangerous: a cool, nice face behind an evil party.

How did Silvio's "No Tax Day" stuff go? I'm just seeing some clips on Ballaró and it seems like yesterday's news (I mean that figuratively).

[EPG]

The story of Lega Nord in Emilia-Romagna is that they held onto their 2010 vote when Forza Italia, and to a lesser extent PD, suffered massively from abstentions. Nationally, the Lega's current polling performance is not unprecedented at mid-term.

Also consider that the other centre-right and right-wing parties are now polling less than 20% combined; and that, furthermore, Lega Nord is the closest approximation to Generic Anti-Foreigner Party, albeit in a country where lots of other parties are now, also, leery of the EU.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hey, so lots of stuff has been happening in the past month! Apart the election news that have been mentioned in this thread, you should know that:
- Napolitano announced he will be resigning early next year, so speculations on who the next President will be are running loose.
- Renzi's "Jobs Act" passed, after some slight watering-down as a compromise with the PD's left-wing. Still, most of the law's actual content will be shaped by the government's decrees, so stay tuned to see what this law actually means.
- There was a HUGE (and I mean, by Italian standards ) Mafia scandal in Rome recently. Basically a clique of criminals close to former far-right terrorists was effectively running the city's immigrant-welcoming services and various other activities, with the city council's support. Fortunately, the mayor Ignazio Marino is one of the few guys who genuinely had nothing to do with all this mess, so he still has a mandate to try and clean it up.
- Renzi's popularity is finally starting to falter, now his approvals and disapprovals are about even in most polls. Still he remains most popular party leader.
- Grillo effectively stepped down from the M5S leadership (right after expelling two more "dissidents"). He appointed a "board" of five people, chosen among his most vehement supporters, to take care of everything. M5S's collapse might be close...

[Keystone Phil]

Renzi 4 Prez...so we can have new government elections by the end of 2015.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Renzi 4 Prez...so we can have new government elections by the end of 2015.

Tbf, it would be quite hilarious if we went from a 90-year-old President to a 40-year-old one overnight.

[Barnes]

I'm going to be in Florence this May, so hopefully I'll see Emperor...President...PM...Renzi around!

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm going to be in Florence this May, so hopefully I'll see Emperor...President...PM...Renzi around!

Well, he's probably staying in Rome these days... Though I (with Hash and Zanas) went to Florence back when he was Mayor.

[Barnes]

I'm going to be in Florence this May, so hopefully I'll see Emperor...President...PM...Renzi around!

Well, he's probably staying in Rome these days... Though I (with Hash and Zanas) went to Florence back when he was Mayor.

Oh yeah, but I thought it was kind of amusing to share!

It'll be my goal to find someone politically important to meet - when I was in Berlin a while ago, I drove past the CDU headquarters, but alas no chance to stop.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, I stopped in the PdL Tuscany HQs (yes, they exist there!) in 2012 because the father of two of my friends was an MP at the time.   You can obviously find regional party offices in Florence.

[Barnes]

Well, I stopped in the PdL Tuscany HQs (yes, they exist there!) in 2012 because the father of two of my friends was an MP at the time.   You can obviously find regional party offices in Florence.

That a very doable idea - thanks for the advice. And I suppose PdL has to make an appearance at least!

[Senator Cris]

New Demos poll:



Approval:



Distribution of Lega Nord and We with Salvini's vote.



**************************

Salvini launched a new party, "We With Salvini" (Noi Con Salvini) that is a kind of Lega of the Centre-South.

Napolitano will probably announce his resignation in the year-end speech.

[Senator Cris]

Logo of "Noi con Salvini".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh Jesus Christ, Salvini is going to create a FPÖ equivalent in Italy...

The worst thing is, had Grillo been less of a moron, he could have prevented that and helped channel protest votes toward a credible left-wing alternative. Instead M5S will probably collapse within the next few months...

[Senator Cris]

Veneto Poll:

Luca Zaia (incumbent, CD) 50%
Alessandra Moretti (CS) 30%
M5S Candidate 15%
Others 5%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For the time being at least things look weirdly like how they were 'supposed' to be after Mani pulite, before Forza Italia turned up.

[Antonio the Sixth]

For the time being at least things look weirdly like how they were 'supposed' to be after Mani pulite, before Forza Italia turned up.

Well, if you consider the PD to be the PCI/PDS' heir in any meaningful sense, then yeah.

[Keystone Phil]

Great to see Meloni with such a positive rating. Speaking of those ratings, I thought Vendola had stepped aside...

This Salvini guy is very dangerous. If Lega Nord seriously surpasses FI in the polls, Berlusconi surely has to realize it's time for him to go.

[politicus]

For the time being at least things look weirdly like how they were 'supposed' to be after Mani pulite, before Forza Italia turned up.

Well, if you consider the PD to be the PCI/PDS' heir in any meaningful sense, then yeah.

This is probably a naive question, but is there any chance of PD purging itself of the non-SD elements to become a bit more ideologically coherent?

[Antonio the Sixth]

For the time being at least things look weirdly like how they were 'supposed' to be after Mani pulite, before Forza Italia turned up.

Well, if you consider the PD to be the PCI/PDS' heir in any meaningful sense, then yeah.

This is probably a naive question, but is there any chance of PD purging itself of the non-SD elements to become a bit more ideologically coherent?

That's not really the direction it's going for right now. Actually, Renzi has completely blurred the ideological picture inside the PD: the main divide is between the Renzi camp, the "old guard" (mostly old PDS stalwarts, but also many ex-DC like Bindi), and the "new left" faction led by Civati (but it's rumored that he's about to leave and found a new party).