Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide
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  Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide
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Author Topic: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide  (Read 291648 times)
Senator Cris
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« Reply #425 on: January 07, 2015, 05:44:59 AM »

President Napolitano is going to resign in the next days.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #426 on: January 07, 2015, 05:52:50 AM »

Edited the thread to reflect that.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #427 on: January 12, 2015, 10:07:31 AM »

Liguria CS Primary Results.
Assessor Raffaella Paita has won the primary. But Sergio Cofferati (former CGIL leader and actually MEP) hasn't conceded the race because of "alleged irregularities in the vote".

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Boston Bread
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« Reply #428 on: January 12, 2015, 10:22:54 AM »

If M5S is so dependent on Grillo, how is it still holding up in the polls with 19% when Grillo has a horrible approval rating?
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andrew_c
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« Reply #429 on: January 12, 2015, 07:46:26 PM »

M5S support is mainly a protest vote.  There's nowhere else for those votes to go.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #430 on: January 13, 2015, 12:38:45 PM »

Napolitano will probably resign tomorrow.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #431 on: January 14, 2015, 04:45:38 AM »

Napolitano resigned.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #432 on: January 14, 2015, 06:57:05 AM »

As I am too lazy to check the Italian constitution: What will happen now? (A presidential election, I guess, but what are the rules of nomination and election?)
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #433 on: January 14, 2015, 07:19:51 AM »

As I am too lazy to check the Italian constitution: What will happen now? (A presidential election, I guess, but what are the rules of nomination and election?)

The President is elected by an electoral college made of all the members of the Parliament (House and Senate) along with a handful delegates from the regions. A 2/3 majority is required onthe first 3 ballots, then a simple majority is sufficient.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #434 on: January 14, 2015, 07:25:38 AM »

What are the potential candidates for new president?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #435 on: January 14, 2015, 08:32:11 AM »

What are the potential candidates for new president?

Everyone and no one. At this point, there is not much besides speculations.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #436 on: January 21, 2015, 12:49:27 PM »

Italy now one step closer to a new electoral law:

ROME (Reuters) - Italy's Senate approved an amendment to a new electoral law on Wednesday, paving the way to passage of a cornerstone of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's reform programme in the upper house next week.

Renzi and centre-right opposition leader Silvio Berlusconi agreed last year to jointly back electoral changes and constitutional reforms to foster more stability and efficiency in long-dysfunctional Italian politics, but the right-left pact has encountered increasing opposition from within both parties.

With votes from both Renzi's centre-left Democratic Party (PD) and Berlusconi's Forza Italia, the amendment containing major elements of the electoral law passed 175 to 110.

(...)

A final vote on the electoral law in the Senate is expected next week. It will then need to be approved by the Chamber of Deputies before becoming law.

If passed, the electoral reform foresees a premium to the party that wins the most votes as long as that group gets more than 40 percent of the total. If no party wins 40 percent in the first round, a second round would be held pitting the top two performers against each other. The threshold for any party to get into parliament would be 3 percent.

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/World/2015/01/21/Italian-Senate-vote-gives-boost-to-Renzi-electoral-law-deal
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« Reply #437 on: January 21, 2015, 01:04:54 PM »

ugh I hate majority bonuses.

Anyway something rather unsettling is happening in Italian polling. An increasing number of polls are showing Berlusconi's outfit slip below or pegging the League of Evil. I mean don't get me wrong, it is funny to see the Don being shredded in the polls. But the League?? ugh

Does the new threshold mean the end of the South Tyrol party by the way?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #438 on: January 21, 2015, 01:20:50 PM »

I actually like the new draft of the electoral system. They did away with the insane 8% threshold, introduced a share of preferential voting and gender parity, and increased the immediate majority threshold to 40%, which is respectable. I've never got why people hate majority bonuses (even the Greek system is pretty OK to me - and it's basically the Italian system without a runoff), they're still fairer than FPP or their variants.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #439 on: January 21, 2015, 01:23:59 PM »

Anyway something rather unsettling is happening in Italian polling. An increasing number of polls are showing Berlusconi's outfit slip below or pegging the League of Evil. I mean don't get me wrong, it is funny to see the Don being shredded in the polls. But the League?? ugh

Yeah, Salvini's new-look Lega (which is basically a FN clone) has been on the rise for months now, and it's attracting a lot of disgruntled xenophobic/Europhobic populist voters. I guess it was bound to happen, especially considering the drop in M5S support. Still extremely worrisome, of course.


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I think there's still a special clause for regional parties.
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Zanas
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« Reply #440 on: January 21, 2015, 06:51:53 PM »

What I'm not getting is for what exactly the two main blocs going to a runoff are running ? Will they be running for all seats, thus excluding every first round party from Parliament ? Or are the first seats given to every one who gets 3% in the first round, except the rest for which the two main blocs will be fighting in the runoff ? And will there be a majority bonus in the runoff as well ?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #441 on: January 22, 2015, 05:14:40 AM »

What I'm not getting is for what exactly the two main blocs going to a runoff are running ? Will they be running for all seats, thus excluding every first round party from Parliament ? Or are the first seats given to every one who gets 3% in the first round, except the rest for which the two main blocs will be fighting in the runoff ? And will there be a majority bonus in the runoff as well ?

Yeah, the runoff is all about the majority bonus. Apart from that, the first round still determines the allocation of seats.
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« Reply #442 on: January 22, 2015, 03:36:24 PM »

I actually like the new draft of the electoral system. They did away with the insane 8% threshold, introduced a share of preferential voting and gender parity, and increased the immediate majority threshold to 40%, which is respectable.

Could you or somebody else please explain the new proposal in some detail?

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I think it's because they're sort of a Frankenstein of at least two different concepts for what an election should produce--'an election should produce an accurate representation of the votes cast' and 'an election should produce a stable governing majority for one political pole'. They just feel 'off' to people even though there's not really much objective reason to have a serious problem with them.
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politicus
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« Reply #443 on: January 22, 2015, 03:42:30 PM »

I think it's because they're sort of a Frankenstein of at least two different concepts for what an election should produce--'an election should produce an accurate representation of the votes cast' and 'an election should produce a stable governing majority for one political pole'. They just feel 'off' to people even though there's not really much objective reason to have a serious problem with them.

To a lot of us Europeans 'an election should produce an accurate representation of the votes cast' is the only real democratic principle. I don't think a bonus is worse than FPTP. I just find both methods abominable.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #444 on: January 22, 2015, 03:44:11 PM »

I think it's because they're sort of a Frankenstein of at least two different concepts for what an election should produce--'an election should produce an accurate representation of the votes cast' and 'an election should produce a stable governing majority for one political pole'. They just feel 'off' to people even though there's not really much objective reason to have a serious problem with them.

To a lot of us Europeans 'an election should produce an accurate representation of the votes cast' is the only real democratic principle. I don't think a bonus is worse than FPTP. I just find both methods abominable.

At least FPTP is about representation, majority bonuses just are about benefiting large parties.
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« Reply #445 on: January 22, 2015, 03:57:12 PM »

Still a run-off provides a bit of comfort - people won't be forced to choose a party they dislike for fear of their least favourite party being allowed the bonus.

(see: Greece)
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #446 on: January 22, 2015, 04:00:30 PM »

I actually like the new draft of the electoral system. They did away with the insane 8% threshold, introduced a share of preferential voting and gender parity, and increased the immediate majority threshold to 40%, which is respectable.

Could you or somebody else please explain the new proposal in some detail?

The voters cast their vote for a party list in a 5 or 6-member constituency. However, the votes are tallied at the national level. If the party that comes ahead has received more than 40% of the vote, this party gets 52% of the seats. The remaining 48% of seats is assigned proportionally to all the parties that have received more than 3% of the vote. If no party has cleared the 40% threshold, a runoff is held between the top two parties - and the winner takes the 52% seats bloc. Then among each parties seats are distributed between constituencies. Voters may express two individual preferences on the party list they have voted for (one for a man and one for a woman). The list leader selected by the party remains ahead no matter what, but the other candidates are ordered by the number of their preferences. Also, lists must alternated between genders, so that if the list leader is a man, the second must be a woman, and reciprocally.


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I think it's because they're sort of a Frankenstein of at least two different concepts for what an election should produce--'an election should produce an accurate representation of the votes cast' and 'an election should produce a stable governing majority for one political pole'. They just feel 'off' to people even though there's not really much objective reason to have a serious problem with them.[/quote]

But isn't trying to concurrently maximize two desirable goals the very essence of politics? Although I agree with Politicus that the fair representation principle is more important in the abstract, such principle can only fully prevail in "civilized" countries like the Scandinavians, where a hung parliament doesn't result in utter chaos. In Italy, full proportionality would have a catastrophic impact, and some correction is needed. But that doesn't mean we need to completely renounce to some degree of fair representation. I think that the current bill, though far from perfect, is a decent compromise in that regard.
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EPG
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« Reply #447 on: January 22, 2015, 04:33:30 PM »

Unlike (say) the Greek or British electoral systems, the Italicum will grant the top party an automatic majority.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #448 on: January 22, 2015, 04:34:57 PM »


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I think it's because they're sort of a Frankenstein of at least two different concepts for what an election should produce--'an election should produce an accurate representation of the votes cast' and 'an election should produce a stable governing majority for one political pole'. They just feel 'off' to people even though there's not really much objective reason to have a serious problem with them.

But isn't trying to concurrently maximize two desirable goals the very essence of politics? Although I agree with Politicus that the fair representation principle is more important in the abstract, such principle can only fully prevail in "civilized" countries like the Scandinavians, where a hung parliament doesn't result in utter chaos. In Italy, full proportionality would have a catastrophic impact, and some correction is needed. But that doesn't mean we need to completely renounce to some degree of fair representation. I think that the current bill, though far from perfect, is a decent compromise in that regard.
[/quote]

Hannah Arendt wept.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #449 on: January 22, 2015, 06:10:17 PM »

I actually like the new draft of the electoral system. They did away with the insane 8% threshold, introduced a share of preferential voting and gender parity, and increased the immediate majority threshold to 40%, which is respectable.

Could you or somebody else please explain the new proposal in some detail?

The voters cast their vote for a party list in a 5 or 6-member constituency. However, the votes are tallied at the national level. If the party that comes ahead has received more than 40% of the vote, this party gets 52% of the seats. The remaining 48% of seats is assigned proportionally to all the parties that have received more than 3% of the vote. If no party has cleared the 40% threshold, a runoff is held between the top two parties - and the winner takes the 52% seats bloc. Then among each parties seats are distributed between constituencies. Voters may express two individual preferences on the party list they have voted for (one for a man and one for a woman). The list leader selected by the party remains ahead no matter what, but the other candidates are ordered by the number of their preferences. Also, lists must alternated between genders, so that if the list leader is a man, the second must be a woman, and reciprocally.

That's...amazingly contorted and difficult to explain but I think I understand the reasoning behind it, and I'd say it's preferable to the other ideas that were being thrown around a while back. Thanks.
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