Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[politicus]

Prodi would make a fine president, but the idea of him being the candidate of the left feels a bit odd. Italian politics makes for some strange bedfellows.

[Keystone Phil]

Antonio!

Another question: are the personal preferences counted at the constituency level or at the national level and then members are assigned to random constituencies (like how Berlusconi technically represented a constituency in Molise, I think, after 2006)?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Antonio!

Another question: are the personal preferences counted at the constituency level or at the national level and then members are assigned to random constituencies (like how Berlusconi technically represented a constituency in Molise, I think, after 2006)?

I have no idea, but I would assume the former.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Antonio!

Another question: are the personal preferences counted at the constituency level or at the national level and then members are assigned to random constituencies (like how Berlusconi technically represented a constituency in Molise, I think, after 2006)?

I have no idea, but I would assume the former.

Good. The other way is [Inks]ing horrible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A few names have been floated around, such as Giuliano Amato (useless establishment stooge who basically held every imaginable political position except for that one and who's been pretty friendly to Berlusconi in the past)...

Craxi as well!

[Antonio the Sixth]

A few names have been floated around, such as Giuliano Amato (useless establishment stooge who basically held every imaginable political position except for that one and who's been pretty friendly to Berlusconi in the past)...

Craxi as well!

Yes, actually he started his career in the PSI as one of Craxi's lieutenants. And when he was PM in 1992-1993 he tried a few tricks to save his friends' ass.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Is there any chance of Pietro Grasso getting the gig full-time, and would anybody want him to?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there any chance of Pietro Grasso getting the gig full-time, and would anybody want him to?

Yeah, he's one of the second-tier candidates that I forgot to mention. He has good relationships both with Renzi and with the PD's left-wing, and Berlusconi surprisingly doesn't hate him either, so he might very well have a shot. But he's not talked about that much compared to the others.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Is there any chance of Pietro Grasso getting the gig full-time, and would anybody want him to?

Yeah, he's one of the second-tier candidates that I forgot to mention. He has good relationships both with Renzi and with the PD's left-wing, and Berlusconi surprisingly doesn't hate him either, so he might very well have a shot. But he's not talked about that much compared to the others.

He seems pretty good from what I've read about him. I'd certainly rather him than Prodi or, God forbid, Amato.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there any chance of Pietro Grasso getting the gig full-time, and would anybody want him to?

Yeah, he's one of the second-tier candidates that I forgot to mention. He has good relationships both with Renzi and with the PD's left-wing, and Berlusconi surprisingly doesn't hate him either, so he might very well have a shot. But he's not talked about that much compared to the others.

He seems pretty good from what I've read about him. I'd certainly rather him than Prodi or, God forbid, Amato.

Prodi would actually make an excellent President IMO. He has the stature, the international prestige, and is one of the most upstanding and honest recent political leaders I can think of. But Berlusconi hates his guts, Renzi might fear that he would be too "activist" a President, and he himself genuinely doesn't want it (who could blame him, after the backstabbing he got in 2013?). So his chances are slim. Grasso is definitely among the better candidates as well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Italicum passed in the Senate: 184 Aye, 66 Nay, 2 abstaining, 63 absent.

And 9 new M5S parliamentarians left the group.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Italicum passed in the Senate: 184 Aye, 66 Nay, 2 abstaining, 63 absent.

Good, I guess.

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Good, I guess.

What's going on with Senate reform? Is that part of Italicum or is it being put through separately?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What's going on with Senate reform? Is that part of Italicum or is it being put through separately?

It is separate because it's a constitutional reform, which requires a much longer procedure. I doubt it will can realistically be completed before 2016. The electoral reform should be the law of the land by March or April.

[Zanas]

For a bit of fun, they should make Grillo President.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

How about days of gridlock before Napolitano is re-elected yet again.

[Keystone Phil]

Fini burn too many center-right bridges to be viable for President?

What exactly is he up to these days anyway?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fini burn too many center-right bridges to be viable for President?

What exactly is he up to these days anyway?

Oh don't be silly. Fini is politically dead and buried.

[Senator Cris]

Tomorrow the first ballot, at 3 PM (Italy time).

1st ballot. 2/3 of assembly needed.
2nd ballot. 2/3.
3rd ballot. 2/3.
4th ballot. 1/2 + 1 of assembly needed.
5th ballot (6th, 7th, etc...). 1/2 + 1.


Apparently, Renzi wants to elect the President at 4th ballot, in order to be safe of the election.
In the first ballots, Lega and FdI will vote Vittorio Feltri.
Apparently, M5S is considering voting Romano Prodi (with ex-M5S, Sel and the PD's left), in order to embarass Renzi.
In these minutes, looks like that Renzi proposed at Berlusconi the name of Sergio Mattarella, but Berlusconi refused to support Mattarella.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That new system is weird but could be a lot worse I guess.

Greece's bonus isn't something I'm a huge fan of either but without it they'd never get any real results. I don't think most countries need a bonus, Germany and Netherlands do OK. Greece and Italy probably do. The worst example of pure PR with no attempts to rectify it though is clearly Israel.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Renzi met with Berlusconi today. Reportedly, Renzi proposed Mattarella and Berlusconi said no; then Berlusconi proposed Amato and Renzi said no. So we still have no real candidate today and most parties will be casting blank ballots tomorrow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

...and it turns out the PD has just officially endorsed Mattarella. Go figure.

[Diouf]

...and it turns out the PD has just officially endorsed Mattarella. Go figure.

Mattarella is backed by many of the M5S defectors as well:

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http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2015/01/28/renzi-meets-with-delegation-of-m5s-defectors_f257075a-ba6c-4a49-9993-f756373fbbbe.html

[Antonio the Sixth]

First ballot on 3PM CEST. Renzi seems determined to push for Mattarella, though the right isn't pleased.

[Keystone Phil]

How many votes will be cast for (the corpse of) Andreotti this time?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like nobody will actually be voting for Mattarella on the first ballot. The showdown will only come on the 4th, when a simple majority is sufficient. Theoretically, Mattarella already has the unanimous support of the left coalition (which has nearly 50% of the seats) and could get additional support from former M5Sers and centrists.