Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

How'd the first ballot go?

[Antonio the Sixth]

How'd the first ballot go?

Provisional count says 536 blank votes, 120 for Imposimato (a judge who won the M5S' online primary), 49 for Feltri (right-wing journalist who was the Lega and FdI's candidate), 37 for Castellina (SEL candidate), 23 for Rodotà, and 174 others.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Why is the right so against Mattarella? I was under the impression that he was strongly Catholic and more or less down-the-middle, and originally came from the center-left faction of DC. That seems like the profile of a basically conciliatory choice to me. Is the Berlusconist right simply not as friendly with the Catholic Church and Catholic politics as the Italian right traditionally has been? Because especially after the defection of NCD--which as I understand it includes the more Christian-democratic and social-conservative elements of the former PdL; is that accurate?--that wouldn't particularly surprise me. Does it have anything to do with the Vatican endorsing Monti in 2013? Or is it specific to Mattarella as a person?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is the right so against Mattarella? I was under the impression that he was strongly Catholic and more or less down-the-middle, and originally came from the center-left faction of DC. Is the Berlusconist right simply not as friendly with the Catholic Church and Catholic politics as the Italian right traditionally has been? Because especially after the defection of NCD--which as I understand it includes the more Christian-democratic and social-conservative elements of the former PdL; is that accurate?--that wouldn't particularly surprise me. Does it have anything to do with the Vatican endorsing Monti in 2013?

Mattarella actually has a bit of an history of clashes with Berlusconi. He resigned from the Andreotti government in 1990 when a law was passed which legalized the situation of Berlusconi's TV networks. He was also a big fan of Oscar Luigi Scalfaro, who regularly clashed with Berlusconi during his presidency. More secondarily, he drafted the famous "Mattarellum" electoral law, in place from 1994 to 2006, which Berlusconi's government repealed when it came to power.

The interesting aspect is that, historically, the left-wing of the DC where Mattarella comes from was probably one of the most anti-Berlusconi factions of the old First Republic (after the PCI/PDS wing). Berlusconi essentially aggregated the Craxi wing of the PSI (hence why he has good relationships with someone like Amato) and the DC's right. He's always seen the Catholic Left as a significant threat, as his hatred of someone like Prodi shows.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looks like nobody will actually be voting for Mattarella on the first ballot. The showdown will only come on the 4th, when a simple majority is sufficient. Theoretically, Mattarella already has the unanimous support of the left coalition (which has nearly 50% of the seats) and could get additional support from former M5Sers and centrists.

LOL that old trick.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Why is the right so against Mattarella? I was under the impression that he was strongly Catholic and more or less down-the-middle, and originally came from the center-left faction of DC. Is the Berlusconist right simply not as friendly with the Catholic Church and Catholic politics as the Italian right traditionally has been? Because especially after the defection of NCD--which as I understand it includes the more Christian-democratic and social-conservative elements of the former PdL; is that accurate?--that wouldn't particularly surprise me. Does it have anything to do with the Vatican endorsing Monti in 2013?

Mattarella actually has a bit of an history of clashes with Berlusconi. He resigned from the Andreotti government in 1990 when a law was passed which legalized the situation of Berlusconi's TV networks. He was also a big fan of Oscar Luigi Scalfaro, who regularly clashed with Berlusconi during his presidency. More secondarily, he drafted the famous "Mattarellum" electoral law, in place from 1994 to 2006, which Berlusconi's government repealed when it came to power.

The interesting aspect is that, historically, the left-wing of the DC where Mattarella comes from was probably one of the most anti-Berlusconi factions of the old First Republic (after the PCI/PDS wing). Berlusconi essentially aggregated the Craxi wing of the PSI (hence why he has good relationships with someone like Amato) and the DC's right. He's always seen the Catholic Left as a significant threat, as his hatred of someone like Prodi shows.

That's...completely unsurprising, really.

I'm still curious about my question regarding NCD.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NCD opposes Mattarella just as much as Berlusconi, actually. Alfano was reportedly quite pissed off by this choice. So I don't think that was really at play. It's not like NCD is an especially Catholic party as compared to FI, the fault lines have become very different over the last few years. Although it is allied with Casini's very-Catholic UDC, and Casini himself was rumored as a potential candidate, so he might have felt "if it's a Catholic, it has to be me".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's a more detailed tally.

Ferdinando Imposimato   120
Vittorio Feltri   49
Luciana Castellina   37
Emma Bonino   25
Stefano Rodotà   23
Gabriele Albertini   14
Claudio Sabelli Fioretti   11
Romano Prodi   9
Mauro Morelli   9
Massimo Caleo   8
Marcello Gualdani   6
Pier Luigi Bersani   5
Sergio Mattarella   5
Others  83
Blank  538
Invalid  33

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obligatory

[Antonio the Sixth]

Obligatory

Ironically, Mattarella's profile is as similar to Scalfaro's as it could get.

[Keystone Phil]

Francesco Totti received five votes. They're invalid because he's 38 years old. The President must be at least 50 years old.

[Zanas]

50 years old ? Wow, is that the most senile age floor for a political function out there ? I can't say I know of a later one.

[Keystone Phil]

50 years old ? Wow, is that the most senile age floor for a political function out there ? I can't say I know of a later one.

Yeah, I was thinking earlier today how Italian Presidents are usually very old but didn't know of that threshold until I read about the Totti votes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Second ballot is basically the same as the first: 531 blank, 123 Imposimato, 51 Feltri, 34 Castellina, 23 Bonino, 22 Rodotà, 14 Sabelli Fioretti, 10 Gualdani, and various others.

[Хahar 🤔]

It's impressive how committed to gerontocracy Italy is.

[Famous Mortimer]

Can someone please give a rundown of all the candidates and who is backing them?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can someone please give a rundown of all the candidates and who is backing them?

There are only two real candidates: Mattarella, who is Renzi's candidate and has the support of SEL, the centrists, and possibly NCD and even the M5S dissidents; and Imposimato, the M5S candidate. Everything else is purely symbolic.

[SPQR]

Tomorrow morning we'll have President Mattarella.
Nice.
Amazing work by Renzi,as usual.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Third ballot (and last of the joke ballots): 513 blank, 126 Imposimato, 56 Feltri, 33 Castellina, 23 Bonino, 22 Rodotà, loads and loads of small candidates.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you don't love Italy there's something fundamentally wrong with you.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NCD will support Mattarella, so it's almost a done deal.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If you don't love Italy there's something fundamentally wrong with you.

I realize Libya, Somalia, and Eritrea all have major problems, but there's no fundamental wrong in the people from there not loving Italy.

[politicus]

If you don't love Italy there's something fundamentally wrong with you.

I realize Libya, Somalia, and Eritrea all have major problems, but there's no fundamental wrong in the people from there not loving Italy.

Is that actually the case anymore? I have never met a Somali that had a grudge against Italy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Voting is now ongoing for the 4th ballot. Theoretically, Mattarella should get at least 643 votes (government majority+SEL). There will certainly be a few losses, but they could be compensated by additional votes coming from M5S dissidents and FI renegades. 505 votes are needed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Some NCD parliamentarians broke out with the party and said they weren't voting Mattarella. So I'm gonna hazard a prediction and say he'll probably finish with around 600 votes.