Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Antonio the Sixth]

Voting has ended, counting has begun

You can follow it online here: http://www.la7.it/dirette-tv

[Antonio the Sixth]

With around half the votes counted, Mattarella already has 337 votes. This is looking like a landslide.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mattarella at 450 (with around 700 counted).

[Senator Cris]

Mattarella elected.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's done.

[Antonio the Sixth]

665, almost two thirds.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Official results:

665 Mattarella
127 Imposimato
46 Feltri
17 Rodotà
22 others
105 blank
13 null

[SPQR]

Renzi is a BEAST.

[Senator Cris]

The winner is Matteo Renzi.
The losers are the centre-right parties, expecially FI (except Fitto) and Berlusconi.
M5S insignificant.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Renzi is a BEAST.

I didn't say it before because I didn't want to jinx it, but yeah, Renzi just proved that he is really a masterful politician. He managed to milk Berlusconi and FI for all its worth on the vote for institutional reforms, then managed to reunify the increasingly divided PD with the Presidential election. Renzi is the only left-wing politician who understands the need to take a gamble, to risk a little to gain a lot. Any other PD leader would have spent weeks to cautiously craft an agreement with Berlusconi, thus losing credibility in public opinion and opening himself for defections inside his party. Renzi chose to think about the bigger picture, and made to both his party and the right an offer they couldn't refuse. He used all the tools he could (including blackmailing Alfano with threats of a government crisis) to ensure it would work, and it paid off. Now Berlusconi is marginalized even within his own party, the PD  is speaking with the same voice, and for the next 7 years Italy will have a President who won't bow down to anybody's whims.

In short, Renzi isn't the leader the left deserves, but he's the leader the left needs.

[SPQR]

Renzi is a BEAST.

I didn't say it before because I didn't want to jinx it, but yeah, Renzi just proved that he is really a masterful politician. He managed to milk Berlusconi and FI for all its worth on the vote for institutional reforms, then managed to reunify the increasingly divided PD with the Presidential election. Renzi is the only left-wing politician who understands the need to take a gamble, to risk a little to gain a lot. Any other PD leader would have spent weeks to cautiously craft an agreement with Berlusconi, thus losing credibility in public opinion and opening himself for defections inside his party. Renzi chose to think about the bigger picture, and made to both his party and the right an offer they couldn't refuse. He used all the tools he could (including blackmailing Alfano with threats of a government crisis) to ensure it would work, and it paid off. Now Berlusconi is marginalized even within his own party, the PD  is speaking with the same voice, and for the next 7 years Italy will have a President who won't bow down to anybody's whims.

In short, Renzi isn't the leader the left deserves, but he's the leader the left needs.

Couldn't agree more.

[Keystone Phil]

The first Sicilian to be President, right?

[Lurker]

Renzi is a BEAST.

Obviously Renzi is great at politics, but what does the left think about him as far as policy is concerned? (I haven't followed Italian politics at all since the 2013 election or so).

[Antonio the Sixth]

The first Sicilian to be President, right?

Yup. And that's another proof that Renzi carefully planned his game: he knew that Alfano, as a fellow Sicilian (along with other NCD politicians like Schifani), would never have had the guts to block Mattarella.

Renzi is a BEAST.

Obviously Renzi is great at politics, but what does the left think about him as far as policy is concerned? (I haven't followed Italian politics at all since the 2013 election or so).

Speaking for myself, I'm certainly not a fan of his economic policies so far, which have tended to go toward greater deregulation and flexibility. But I don't share the outrage that the PD's left has vented either (especially considering what previous left-wing PMs have done).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mattarella will be sworn in on Tuesday morning, and take office early in the afternoon.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I actually have high hopes for Italy now. It's been a long time since I've been able to say that.

Having said that...any chance at all of getting the Statute of Workers back?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's now clear that Renzi supremely sneaky bastard, very much in the style of the political tradition that he comes from. Which - given that he is evidently good at that kind of thing - may well be exactly what the Left needs at the moment.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I actually have high hopes for Italy now. It's been a long time since I've been able to say that.

Having said that...any chance at all of getting the Statute of Workers back?

I have a hard time seeing that. Even if his relationships with the PD's left-wing have improved a lot with this election, Renzi isn't the kind of person who backtrack easily. Maybe the decrees that will give a precise content to the Jobs Act will be a bit "softer" than expected. I guess he can bargain that with his party in exchange for a swift approval of the electoral reform.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I actually have high hopes for Italy now. It's been a long time since I've been able to say that.

Having said that...any chance at all of getting the Statute of Workers back?

I have a hard time seeing that. Even if his relationships with the PD's left-wing have improved a lot with this election, Renzi isn't the kind of person who backtrack easily. Maybe the decrees that will give a precise content to the Jobs Act will be a bit "softer" than expected. I guess he can bargain that with his party in exchange for a swift approval of the electoral reform.

I think that would be best for everyone both politically and as public policy, so let's hope something like that is what happens.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This reconstruction by Renzi of the days that led to Mattarella's election is really enlightening. Obviously it should be taken with a grain of salt, but from what he says it appears that the clash with Berlusconi had begun days before it was made official by Renzi. Berlusconi was pushing hard for Amato, and - here's the real news - he had made contacts with several leaders of the PD's old guard (chief of them D'Alema), who also had good relationships to Amato. That probably explains why Renzi felt the urge to publicly endorse Mattarella, in order to make an offer his party couldn't refuse. So not only did he win big with this result, but he also dodged many bullets, considering how bad the election of Amato would have been perceived by the public opinion.

In some way, all this really reminds of late First Republic alignments. You have on one side the old CAF (Craxi-Andreotti-Forlani) axis, an alliance of the PSI and of the DC's right, of which Berlusconi is the direct political heir. On the other side the "popular" wing of the DC (of which Mattarella was one of the key figures, under the lead of the old boss Ciriaco De Mita). Interestingly, the "postcommunist" left has often played the tip of the balance between these two factions throughout the Second Republic (D'Alema always had cordial relations with Berlusconi, for example, and he screwed over the "popular" Prodi more than once). Of course these alignment aren't relevant in everyday politics anymore, but it seems they can resurface on occasions like these. Fascinating.

[Antonio the Sixth]

An unofficial "list" based on the time spent in the voting booth indicates that there are as many as 43 (out of 145) Forza Italia electors who disobeyed Berlusconi's order and voted for Mattarella. They seem to be led by Denis Verdini, one of Berlusconi's most influential advisors and and the architect of the alliance with Renzi. The crisis inside FI really runs deep, and it seems like some people's allegiances are where you'd expect them least.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like Renzi's success is lifting him up in the public opinion too. In the weekly EMG poll, his approval rating is up by 3 points and PD voting intentions are up by 1.5 points. FI and M5S lose almost one point each.

[palandio]

Well I understand why Berlusconi "likes" the ex-commies: They have difficulties to win general elections, particularly when the South is involved. Bersani 2013 is the best example.

I don't understand why some leading ex-commies like D'Alema are cordial with Berlusconi. Does it have to do with trying to establish bipolarism which gave them the chance to get into government regularly? Don't they understand that one anomaly (non-commie majority vs. commie minority) has been replaced by another anomaly (Berlusconi, followers, allies and occassional allies vs. the rest)?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't understand why some leading ex-commies like D'Alema are cordial with Berlusconi. Does it have to do with trying to establish bipolarism which gave them the chance to get into government regularly? Don't they understand that one anomaly (non-commie majority vs. commie minority) has been replaced by another anomaly (Berlusconi, followers, allies and occassional allies vs. the rest)?

D'Alema does this because he's a vile, sneaky, despicable schemer who is more interested in eliminating his rivals within the party than in helping his party thrive. He screwed over the left with glee more than once - the last of which occurred during the previous presidential election just two years ago. Thank God he has become largely irrelevant since Renzi took over.

[DL]

I'd like someone to explain how it is that the old Italian Socialist Party seems to have joined Berlusconi and that crook Craxi was good friends with Berlusconi. I realise the PSI was anti-Communist - but they were still supposedly a "socialist" party that was a member of the Socialist International and was supposedly social democratic etc... and Berlusconi is alwsays shrieking about his enemies being "leftists" - so what would make an Italian socialist see anyone good about Berlusconi??