Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To answer that adequately would entail a detailed history of the entire First Republic...

But as a brief summary; the Cold War driven polarisation of Italian politics had rendered the PSI (which was memorably and accurately described by a British diplomat as a 'very silly party' in the mid 1940s) functionally irrelevant. The PCI had stolen its old working class base in the North, it had also lost support to the breakaway PSDI¹ and the PSI's unrepentant (at least for a while) Marxism meant that it could not seriously appeal for other voters. Mutual ideological mellowing allowed for PSI participation in DC governments from 1963 onwards, but this did not solve the party's electoral problems (in part because the PCI's long (unwitting) march away from Communism was well underway by this point). The party also suffered from crippling factionalism. Craxi - a nasty careerist little turd from the day he was born - took advantage of this to gain control of the party in the mid 1970s and was able to refashion the PSI in his own image. The PSI cultivated close links with business in general and business in Milan² in particular (Silvio Berlusconi is a case in point: Craxi become his political protector and, ultimately, his mentor) and with the centre parties (DC, PSDI, PRI, PLI), and aggressively sought out a new electorate; state functionaries and white collar private sector workers. It also began to develop patronage machines in order to break into the South. The PSI's past rhetoric and baggage was not entirely abandoned though; it kept it distinct (in the eyes of its electorate if not reality) from the rest of the political centre, and this had obviousl electoral benefits. As an electoral strategy Craxi's transformation of the PSI was not particularly successful (under his leadership it never polled higher than 14% nationally), but as a political strategy it was brilliant. The PSI drew closer to the centres of power (and, critically, public money), Craxi enjoyed a lengthy (for Italy) stint as Prime Minister, and all looked very rosy indeed. And then some third rate party hack called Mario Chiesa got caught taking a bribe...

<sub>1. Who eventually turned into an even bigger joke than the PSI...
2. Where the PSI had been part of city government (and had usually led it) since 1961.</sub>

[EPG]

I wouldn't over-exaggerate the PSI-Berlusconi coalescence. Even at top institutional level, most of their leaders quit politics or allied with the PDS or eventually joined The Olive Tree / The Union directly or via fringe centrist groups. Others allied sooner or later with Forza Italia, particularly those around Craxi most aggrieved about the PDS. As so often, the strange minority is more distinctive and interesting than the obvious majority, but we can easily forget the latter by focussing on the former.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The issue is that the 'majority' was not in charge during the last years of the party's life.

[EPG]

It most certainly was - it didn't die with Craxi, and ignoring all-bar-Craxi is exactly the problem.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It most certainly was - it didn't die with Craxi, and ignoring all-bar-Craxi is exactly the problem.

Most of Craxi's clique - even those who eventually joined the left coalition like Amato - very much inherited his vision of politics and his networks and was unambiguously friendly toward Berlusconi.

[EPG]

Friendly like Renzi!

[DC Al Fine]

Since we're discussing demographics of the post WW2 alignments, can someone give me a brief description of who voted for the following minor parties?

1) Italian Social Movement
2) Republican Party
3) Radical Party
4) Liberal Party

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't think I can discuss the demographics in detail, but after spending a lot of time playing around with maps, I can talk about each party's geographic bases.

1) Italian Social Movement

Very strong in Lazio, especially in the suburbs of Rome. Also pretty strong throughout the South, especially in Calabria after the 1971 Reggio uprising which, although being largely apolitical, was embraced by MSI politicians.

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Mostly strong in South-central Italy (Lazio, Umbria and Marche) and later also in the Northwest.

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Very urban, unsurprisingly.

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It seems this party saw the exact opposite evolution of the PSI. It started off as a markedly Southern party (like other non-DC right-wing parties), but, by the 1970s, its base had completely shifted to the North, especially Piemonte.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Friendly like Renzi!

If Renzi was so friendly, Amato would be the President right now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I need to do more of these some time, but results for 1963:



...and 1976:



No further need to explain the MSI, probably...

The electorates for the two old liberal parties evolved considerably during the course of the First Republic (a lot of legacy votes, for want of a better way of putting it, in rural areas in the early years), but by the mid 1960s - and then until the end of the First Republic - they were both mostly backed by non religious upper middle class (to actively rich) people. The PLI in particular was extremely close to certain business interests. The Radicals were mostly backed by their children.
Though both the PRI and PLI also retained patronage machines in a couple of random areas right up until the end; as you can see from the maps.

[EPG]

Since we're discussing demographics of the post WW2 alignments, can someone give me a brief description of who voted for the following minor parties?

1) Italian Social Movement
2) Republican Party
3) Radical Party
4) Liberal Party

With a grain of salt:
Southerners who missed the 20s
People who would have been very socially radical in the 20s, plus everyone in Ravenna
People who were very socially radical in the 70s
People who missed the six decades before the 20s

[SPQR]

Republican Party was also a bit of a bourgeois party,for those who didn't like the DC but wouldn't quite go as far as voting for PCI or PSI.

[DC Al Fine]

Thanks for the answers everyone. Very informative

[Senator Cris]

Verona Mayor Flavio Tosi was kicked out of Lega. Now he is considering a run for Veneto Governor. With Tosi running, the race between incumbent Luca Zaia (Lega, Forza Italia) and Alessandra Moretti (PD, others of centre-left) will be close.
Tosi could have the support of his list and of centrists of NCD-UDC.

[Senator Cris]

Campania poll (by IPR)

Candidates:

Caldoro (CD, incumbent) 41% (min. 39% - max. 43%)
De Luca (CS) 38% (36% - 40%)
Ciarambino (M5S) 14% (12% - 16%)
Left Candidate 4% (3% - 5%)
Others 3% (1% - 5%)

Vote by party:

FI 17% (15% - 19%)
NCD-UDC 6% (5% - 7%)
Caldoro List 6% (5% - 7%)
FDI-AN 5% (4% - 6%)
Others 6% (3.5% - 10%)
TOTAL CD 40% (38% - 42%)

PD 27% (25% - 29%)
Free Campania 5% (4% - 6%)
Others 5% (1% - 11%)
TOTAL CS 37% (35% - 39%)

M5S 15% (13% - 17%)

Left Parties 5% (4% - 6%)

Others 3% (0% - 6%)

[Senator Cris]

Apulia poll (by SWG)

Emiliano (CS + Left + UDC) 46%
Schittulli (CD) 36%
Laricchia (M5S) 14%
Others 4%

[Antonio the Sixth]

The standoff on electoral reform is coming to a close. Debate of the bill is about to start in the House, and Renzi has made it clear he won't accept any further amendment (which would force the bill to go back to the Senate, where the government's majority is very shaky). However, the anti-Renzi wing of the PD is up in arms against it, to an extent never seen before. Even the more moderate ones (like Bersani) seemingly seriously threaten to vote down the bill if changes aren't made. But Renzi has not flinched, and is even considering tying up the bill to a vote of confidence (effectively meaning "if the Italicum doesn't pass, this parliament goes down"). Today the PD has kicked out all the anti-Italicum PD members from the relevant parliamentary committee. Whatever happens, this will be a key test for both Renzi and the PD minority. The stakes are almost as high as they were for the Presidential election.

[Barnes]

Thanks for the update, Antonio!  I'll be in Italy in a few weeks, so it's good to know the political situation there!

[politicus]

The standoff on electoral reform is coming to a close. Debate of the bill is about to start in the House, and Renzi has made it clear he won't accept any further amendment (which would force the bill to go back to the Senate, where the government's majority is very shaky). However, the anti-Renzi wing of the PD is up in arms against it, to an extent never seen before. Even the more moderate ones (like Bersani) seemingly seriously threaten to vote down the bill if changes aren't made. But Renzi has not flinched, and is even considering tying up the bill to a vote of confidence (effectively meaning "if the Italicum doesn't pass, this parliament goes down"). Today the PD has kicked out all the anti-Italicum PD members from the relevant parliamentary committee. Whatever happens, this will be a key test for both Renzi and the PD minority. The stakes are almost as high as they were for the Presidential election.

Are the anti-Renzi people ideologically coherent or are they fom different groups?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The standoff on electoral reform is coming to a close. Debate of the bill is about to start in the House, and Renzi has made it clear he won't accept any further amendment (which would force the bill to go back to the Senate, where the government's majority is very shaky). However, the anti-Renzi wing of the PD is up in arms against it, to an extent never seen before. Even the more moderate ones (like Bersani) seemingly seriously threaten to vote down the bill if changes aren't made. But Renzi has not flinched, and is even considering tying up the bill to a vote of confidence (effectively meaning "if the Italicum doesn't pass, this parliament goes down"). Today the PD has kicked out all the anti-Italicum PD members from the relevant parliamentary committee. Whatever happens, this will be a key test for both Renzi and the PD minority. The stakes are almost as high as they were for the Presidential election.

Are the anti-Renzi people ideologically coherent or are they fom different groups?

They're commonly interpreted as being on the PD's left, and claim to guard the party's traditional postcommunist "identity" against Renzi's third-wayish policies and hyper-modernistic style. This claim can be taken with varying degrees of seriousness depending on the speaker. Civati, who leads the most radical wing of the opposition, has always been known for his left-wing stance (even though he was formerly allied with Renzi, based on the old v. new divide in the party). Fassina too was always on the PD's left, but he kept his mouth shut when he was part of the do-nothing Letta government. He also hold a major personal grudge against Renzi and it's pretty clear he wants to do harm more than anything. Cuperlo also has positioned himself as a left-winger, but he became a known political figure when he challenged Renzi, so it's impossible to know how much of his stance is caused by the will to differentiate himself. Rosy Bindi has also long been an avowed left-winger, despite her Christian Democratic roots. For Bersani and D'Alema, it gets a bit murkier. Bersani was never exactly much of a left-wing flamethrower, but in terms of style, there is obviously a huge clash between him and Renzi (Bersani is known for his devotion to the party as a collective and his distaste for personalism). D'Alema is just a scheming, arrogant old clan leader who's desperately trying to keep being relevant after Renzi sidelined him. There are other, more minor figures, whose opposition to Renzi can be explained as about 50% political positioning and 50% personal distaste for Renzi.

[Zanas]

The standoff on electoral reform is coming to a close. Debate of the bill is about to start in the House, and Renzi has made it clear he won't accept any further amendment (which would force the bill to go back to the Senate, where the government's majority is very shaky). However, the anti-Renzi wing of the PD is up in arms against it, to an extent never seen before. Even the more moderate ones (like Bersani) seemingly seriously threaten to vote down the bill if changes aren't made. But Renzi has not flinched, and is even considering tying up the bill to a vote of confidence (effectively meaning "if the Italicum doesn't pass, this parliament goes down"). Today the PD has kicked out all the anti-Italicum PD members from the relevant parliamentary committee. Whatever happens, this will be a key test for both Renzi and the PD minority. The stakes are almost as high as they were for the Presidential election.

Are the anti-Renzi people ideologically coherent or are they fom different groups?

They're commonly interpreted as being on the PD's left, and claim to guard the party's traditional postcommunist "identity" against Renzi's third-wayish policies and hyper-modernistic style. This claim can be taken with varying degrees of seriousness depending on the speaker. Civati, who leads the most radical wing of the opposition, has always been known for his left-wing stance (even though he was formerly allied with Renzi, based on the old v. new divide in the party). Fassina too was always on the PD's left, but he kept his mouth shut when he was part of the do-nothing Letta government. He also hold a major personal grudge against Renzi and it's pretty clear he wants to do harm more than anything. Cuperlo also has positioned himself as a left-winger, but he became a known political figure when he challenged Renzi, so it's impossible to know how much of his stance is caused by the will to differentiate himself. Rosy Bindi has also long been an avowed left-winger, despite her Christian Democratic roots. For Bersani and D'Alema, it gets a bit murkier. Bersani was never exactly much of a left-wing flamethrower, but in terms of style, there is obviously a huge clash between him and Renzi (Bersani is known for his devotion to the party as a collective and his distaste for personalism). D'Alema is just a scheming, arrogant old clan leader who's desperately trying to keep being relevant after Renzi sidelined him. There are other, more minor figures, whose opposition to Renzi can be explained as about 50% political positioning and 50% personal distaste for Renzi.

While we're at it, are there significant figures or factions to the right of Renzi inside the PD ? Or inside the centro-sinistra camp ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The standoff on electoral reform is coming to a close. Debate of the bill is about to start in the House, and Renzi has made it clear he won't accept any further amendment (which would force the bill to go back to the Senate, where the government's majority is very shaky). However, the anti-Renzi wing of the PD is up in arms against it, to an extent never seen before. Even the more moderate ones (like Bersani) seemingly seriously threaten to vote down the bill if changes aren't made. But Renzi has not flinched, and is even considering tying up the bill to a vote of confidence (effectively meaning "if the Italicum doesn't pass, this parliament goes down"). Today the PD has kicked out all the anti-Italicum PD members from the relevant parliamentary committee. Whatever happens, this will be a key test for both Renzi and the PD minority. The stakes are almost as high as they were for the Presidential election.

Are the anti-Renzi people ideologically coherent or are they fom different groups?

They're commonly interpreted as being on the PD's left, and claim to guard the party's traditional postcommunist "identity" against Renzi's third-wayish policies and hyper-modernistic style. This claim can be taken with varying degrees of seriousness depending on the speaker. Civati, who leads the most radical wing of the opposition, has always been known for his left-wing stance (even though he was formerly allied with Renzi, based on the old v. new divide in the party). Fassina too was always on the PD's left, but he kept his mouth shut when he was part of the do-nothing Letta government. He also hold a major personal grudge against Renzi and it's pretty clear he wants to do harm more than anything. Cuperlo also has positioned himself as a left-winger, but he became a known political figure when he challenged Renzi, so it's impossible to know how much of his stance is caused by the will to differentiate himself. Rosy Bindi has also long been an avowed left-winger, despite her Christian Democratic roots. For Bersani and D'Alema, it gets a bit murkier. Bersani was never exactly much of a left-wing flamethrower, but in terms of style, there is obviously a huge clash between him and Renzi (Bersani is known for his devotion to the party as a collective and his distaste for personalism). D'Alema is just a scheming, arrogant old clan leader who's desperately trying to keep being relevant after Renzi sidelined him. There are other, more minor figures, whose opposition to Renzi can be explained as about 50% political positioning and 50% personal distaste for Renzi.

While we're at it, are there significant figures or factions to the right of Renzi inside the PD ? Or inside the centro-sinistra camp ?

Well, I think you have a small wing of people who stand somewhere in between the PD mainstream and, say, the rump Scelta Civica group. People like Tabacci or Ichino who are essentially Moderate Heroes with a Christian Democratic bent. Actually a whole dozen of SC parliamentarians left the party some time ago to join the PD. I guess this group can be considered as being "to the right" of Renzi, but they are really marginal.

[Senator Cris]

Regional elections: LIGURIA

Assessor Raffaela Paita won the centre-left primary with 53% against MEP Sergio Cofferati that gained 46%. After a lot of controversy, Cofferati left the Democratic Party. In the general election, Paita will be supported by the Democratic Party and two civic lists. In the previous days, Paita was investigated for the flood that hit Liguria.

Forza Italia's spokesman Giovanni Toti will be the centre-right candidate for Governor. Initially, the Northern League was supporting Edoardo Rixi, but it done a deal with Berlusconi that provided the support of the League for Toti in exchange of the Forza Italia's support for Governor Zaia in Veneto. Toti will have the support of Forza Italia, Northern League, Brothers of Italy - National Alliance, Popular Area (New Centre Right and Union of the Centre), Liberals and New Socialist Party. The coalition is united behind Toti, but he is not a strong candidate.

Member of Parliament Luca Pastorino, a member of the left-wing of the Democratic Party, left the Democratic Party and is now running for Governor of Liguria with Left Ecology and Freedom, local Left lists and with the support of some PD's members of the Civati wing.

Five Stars Movement is running Alice Salvatore.
Former Senator Enrico Musso is running with a centre-right civic list.  
The Other Liguria (a left movement) is running Antonio Bruno. Matteo Piccardi will be the candidate of the Communist Party of Workers.

Latest Polls:

Paita 33.5% Toti 29% Salvatore 23% Pastorino 13%

In my opinion, it's LEAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY HOLD. Both Paita and Toti are not great candidates, but Paita has the advantage of being supported by the Democratic Party that, in my opinion, will lead Paita to victory. The big questions is if Paita will be able to get a majority in the Regional Council.
As of today, I think Paita wins by a margin of 3-7 points.

[Zanas]

So Lega Nord has consistently overtaken Forza Italia in the national polls, for a few months now (13-14 vs. 12-13). What does that mean exactly ? Better diffusion of the LN vote nation-wide ? Or mega-overperformance in the North like 60 % ? And how is Lega Nord going to compete in the Centre and the South ?

[Nhoj]

So Lega Nord has consistently overtaken Forza Italia in the national polls, for a few months now (13-14 vs. 12-13). What does that mean exactly ? Better diffusion of the LN vote nation-wide ? Or mega-overperformance in the North like 60 % ? And how is Lega Nord going to compete in the Centre and the South ?

They created a spinoff list for the south.