Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[palandio]

When FdI split from PdL in 2013 I thought it was just a tactical move prior to the elections in order to better appeal to ex-AN voters and get them to vote for the Center-right alliance. Since then FdI has pursued a slightly more independent course.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

PD continues to get sucked deeper into corruption scandals


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/13/us-italy-scandal-idUSKCN0T220Q20151113#e3gmvSu8yPXmj3Tk.97


Renzi himself said today that De Luca must go.

[Diouf]

The first poll I have seen, where PD wouldn't win.

Sondaggio Ipr/Tg3 poll:

[RodPresident]

I'd like to see Centre-Right vs. M5S in a run-off.

[rob in cal]

    I'm intrigued by how in the runoff the left does so well against 5 Star.  Wouldn't the vast majority of voters on the right support 5 Star over the left.  I guess not if the center-left is about even with 5 Star in the runoff.

[tpfkaw]

I'm intrigued by how in the runoff the left does so well against 5 Star.  Wouldn't the vast majority of voters on the right support 5 Star over the left.  I guess not if the center-left is about even with 5 Star in the runoff.

Eastern Ukrainians would vote M5S, while Western Ukrainians would vote PD.

[Stan]

Polls without real elections and without candidates are not so reliables...but anyway interesting and usefull tu understand the political situation.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Boschi in trouble:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/18/maria-elena-boschi-the-italian-mp-fighting-for-reform-and-family

And Renzi lets off steam by letting off on "Mutti":

http://www.politico.eu/article/matteo-renzi-picks-fight-with-angela-merkel-brussels-summit-eurozone-pipeline/

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Random question but why are the provinces of Naples and Salerno so politically conservative? Is it the general conservatism of the south? Working class + small farmer + small town thing going on?

And what caused Campania to suddenly swing so hard to the PD last year?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think Naples can really be categorised; it does its own weird thing in its own weird way. But the answer in Italy is always History.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So there's a blow up about the civil union bill in Parliament at the moment.

NCD, UdC, FI, and a number of PD members have expressed concern about or the intention to vote against the bill because they say the stepchild adoption passage (allowing same-sex couples to adopt children from previous relationships) would allow surrogacy, which is currently outlawed in Italy (wtf??).

The bill is scheduled to hit the Senate sometime this month.

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2016/01/07/row-over-civil-unions-continues_5fa95f09-5d42-4084-aa87-8fc0c079635c.html

Renzi predicts the vote on constitutional reforms will occur on schedule in October after a final vote in April

A poll shows that 67% of Italians support the abolishment of perfectly equal bicameralism (i.e. reduce Senate power), with only 18% opposing and 15% unsure.

HOWEVER, only 33% claim to actually understand the bill in Parliament, 47% partially, and 20% claim to understand none of the proposed changes. 92% support reducing the number of Senators from 315 to 100, only 8% oppose. Only 20% support the Senators being chosen by the provinces, 36% would prefer direct election of Senators, and 45% want the Senate abolished completely.

If the referendum were held today, turnout is estimated to be only 45%, with 60% voting in favor, 21% against, and the rest undecided.

Article is in Italian, with cool slideshow pie-graphs: http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/media/Sondaggio-Istituto-Demopolis-riforma-costituzionale-secondo-italiani-c2fbdbf2-ecdf-4215-afd4-35a184899ae5.html


Additionally, Italy's central bank predicts the economy will grow 1.5% in 2016, which would be the best showing since 2010 and roughly match pre-recession growth in 2004, 2006, and 2007.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Senate passes the Senate reform in a 2nd reading. 180 for, 112 against, 1 abstention. 22 votes came from the center-right. It will go to the House again for final approval before a referendum held later this year.

http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/articoli/Senato-approva-in-seconda-lettura-le-riforme-costituzionali-parola-alla-camera-f2c8ea20-972d-4d40-89fd-937990d3df4e.html

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They also passed a whistleblower protection law. 281 yes, 71 no and 18 abstentions. However, the text was weaker than originally presented. M5S and PD teamed up to pass it, over the objections of FdI and Forza Italia.

http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/articoli/Ok-dalla-Camera-al-ddl-whistleblowing-contro-la-corruzione-f25211ff-1d9d-46a3-a5ee-e95c4c94ca7c.html

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Regarding civil unions, Lega Nord, Forza Italia, and AP presented 5,385 amendment to the bill in an attempt to derail it.

http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/articoli/Unioni-civili-valanda-di-emendamenti-al-ddl-cirinna-circa-6000-45d27002-0eaa-4067-bf8c-a1abaab88fe9.html?refresh_ce

2016 will be a wild year! Amazing how quickly some of this stuff is coming

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Here's a poll btw:

5 Stars 26.5
Democrats 31.8
Forza Italy 11.6
Northen Leauge + Salvini's Southern Pals 15.8
Lefties 3.2
Bros of Italy 5.6
New Centre Right 2.7
Other 4.7

Second Round

5 Stars 50.8
Democrats 49.2

Which would be very interesting, lol.
 

[Diouf]

Here's a poll btw:

5 Stars 26.5
Democrats 31.8
Forza Italy 11.6
Northen Leauge + Salvini's Southern Pals 15.8
Lefties 3.2
Bros of Italy 5.6
New Centre Right 2.7
Other 4.7

Second Round

5 Stars 50.8
Democrats 49.2

Which would be very interesting, lol.
 

The same poll (Sondaggio EMG for TgLa7) includes an option with the existence of the expected centre-right coalition.

PD 31.8
Centre-right 31.3
5 stars 28.4
Lefts 3.0
New Centre-right 1.8
Others 3.7

The two other possible second round match-ups

PD 52.8
Centre-right 47.3

5 star 52.4
Centre-right 47.6

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Who would lead the right coalition? Berlusconi, Salvini or some more palatable face?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Who would lead the right coalition? Berlusconi, Salvini or some more palatable face?

Salvini, probably. Berlusconi is old news and desperately trying to stay relevant and not to be overshadowed by Salvini (too late, by this poll). Salvini's leadership is noted for expanding its support outside of the north and mellowing on the anti-South rhetoric of the Bossi era. They want to win and they see Salvini as their PM candidate

[Diouf]

Who would lead the right coalition? Berlusconi, Salvini or some more palatable face?

Salvini, probably. Berlusconi is old news and desperately trying to stay relevant and not to be overshadowed by Salvini (too late, by this poll). Salvini's leadership is noted for expanding its support outside of the north and mellowing on the anti-South rhetoric of the Bossi era. They want to win and they see Salvini as their PM candidate

However, Salvini is not very popular among the general electorate. 57 % would look negatively upon him being their prime ministerial candidate. That would probably make it even more difficult for them to win a head-to-head, where they are already behind in most polls. The best option would probably be a non-Berlusconi FI candidate. Much will depend on the method. As far as I know, no method for electing the prime ministerial candidate has been chosen yet. Berlusconi doesn't like the idea of primaries and prefers deals between the parties, while Lega and Brothers seem to prefer primaries. Salvini will probably win a primary, but a political deal could perhaps lead to a candidate with a broader appeal. The same discussion of primary or not primary seem to be ongoing in the center-right alliances before the local elections in a few months.

[aross]

Who would lead the right coalition? Berlusconi, Salvini or some more palatable face?

Salvini, probably. Berlusconi is old news and desperately trying to stay relevant and not to be overshadowed by Salvini (too late, by this poll). Salvini's leadership is noted for expanding its support outside of the north and mellowing on the anti-South rhetoric of the Bossi era. They want to win and they see Salvini as their PM candidate

Will Berlusconi ever participate in a coalition where he isn't the leader? I'd have thought his ego was too big for that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Who would lead the right coalition? Berlusconi, Salvini or some more palatable face?

Salvini, probably. Berlusconi is old news and desperately trying to stay relevant and not to be overshadowed by Salvini (too late, by this poll). Salvini's leadership is noted for expanding its support outside of the north and mellowing on the anti-South rhetoric of the Bossi era. They want to win and they see Salvini as their PM candidate

Will Berlusconi ever participate in a coalition where he isn't the leader? I'd have thought his ego was too big for that.

He's fighting for his political survival at this point, and jumping on the Salvini bandwagon is the only thing he can do.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

There's a high chance he'll die of some venereal disease by next election, I assume.

[Zanas]

There's a high chance he'll die of some venereal disease by next election, I assume.

I already have a bottle of champagne "au frais" in my fridge for when that happens.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So M5S is facing a lot of social media and supporter backlash for its tactics in the Senate regarding the civil unions bill yesterday.

Quick summary:

- M5S is noted for being militantly pro-LGBT rights (a product of its youth support), even having its MPs stage a kiss-in last year during a debate on same-sex civil unions in Parliament.

- M5S and PD originally teamed up to try and pass this bill. The bill originally made civil unions equal to civil marriage and contained a stepchild adoption clause.

- Two weeks ago, PD proposed a measure that would speed the passage of the bill. I'm not sure of the details, but most Italian language articles mention a "kangaroo vote" and "secret vote". I don't know what that's about; hopefully one of our Italian posters can key us in. M5S pulled support, saying they could not support the changes in parliamentary procedure "in good conscience".

- PD scrambled and had to deal with NCD and ALA (centre-right groups), who demanded that the stepchild adoption be scrapped, as they argue it would lead to surrogacy, which is illegal in Italy. They also demanded that the language of the bill make civil unions inferior to civil marriage by removing an faithfulness oath married couples must sign on their marriage licenses.

- The vote on the watered-down bill passed with overwhelming PD, M5S, and centre-right support. Renzi had staked this vote to a confidence vote and survived with 173 votes in favor when 161 are needed.

While many are very happy that something finally got done (same-sex couples can now make medical decisions for each other and claim each others partial pension benefits in the event of one partner passing away, etc.), there is a lot of anger and rage in the base of M5S against its parliamentarians for "sabotaging" the original bill.

Don't think this will negatively impact M5S in polling, elections, or among the base but it sure is embarrassing and will probably force M5S' MPs to change tactics going forward.

[tpfkaw]

- The vote on the watered-down bill passed with overwhelming PD, M5S, and centre-right support. Renzi had staked this vote to a confidence vote and survived with 173 votes in favor when 161 are needed.

Huh? If everyone voted for it overwhelmingly, why did it pass so narrowly?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Didn't Berlusocni come out in favour of gay marriage last year?

[Cranberry]

- Two weeks ago, PD proposed a measure that would speed the passage of the bill. I'm not sure of the details, but most Italian language articles mention a "kangaroo vote" and "secret vote". I don't know what that's about; hopefully one of our Italian posters can key us in. M5S pulled support, saying they could not support the changes in parliamentary procedure "in good conscience". .

I'm not completely sure about this, and would be glad if someone could check this, but from what I have read, this would have been a way to get it passed in the Senate without having to vote on every single amendment that the right (a.k.a the usual horribles) had introduced (or planned to introduce?). I'm afraid I can't find the article I read that right now, but I will try to search for it to post here for reference.

I'm also very glad that the SVP and the Trentinese regionalists voted for this, didn't entirely expect that.