Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Andrea]

Exit polls for run offs in mayoral elections in Italy

Rome: 5 Stars 64-68% PD 32-36%

Milan: PD 49-53% Right 47-51%

Turin: 5 Stars 50-54% PD 46-50%

Bologna: PD 54-58% Right 42-46%

Naples: De Magistris 61-65 Right 35-39

[Zanas]

Yeah we let that one slip through. M5S just gained Roma and Milano, with two women elected mayors ! Seems like the "center"-right just went full "everybody but Renzi" when eliminated from the runoffs. Now to see what M5S can actually do, especially in the utmostly ungovernable Rome.

[Velasco]

Yeah we let that one slip through. M5S just gained Roma and Milano, with two women elected mayors ! Seems like the "center"-right just went full "everybody but Renzi" when eliminated from the runoffs. Now to see what M5S can actually do, especially in the utmostly ungovernable Rome.

Roma and Torino. The result in the latter kinda surprised me. I guess the good news for Renzi is that the Right is in bad shape. But you know, the worst enemies are usually within your own party.

[Hash]

Not sure why Torino is surprising. Past local elections, admittedly in smaller provincial capitals and sometimes in different political configurations, have shown that the M5S can easily win runoffs even when they're way behind the centre-left in the first round since they have really strong transfers from the centre-right, far-left/left and just about everybody else.

[Velasco]

Possibly it surprised me because I have known people from there and maybe I have a romantic and somewhat misinformed idea of that city. On a second thought, it makes sense that M5S gets vote transfers from everywhere. Pure protest vote, I guess.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry I wasn't there to comment this (as always in Italy) awesomely insane election cycle! Anyway, these are actually really interesting results, and I'm pretty curious to see how Raggi and Appendino will govern their cities. They both seem a LOT better than most M5S figures we've seen so far, and change was certainly needed in a lot of ways. If I voted in Rome, I actually think I would have voted for Raggi (nothing personal against Giachetti, but the Roman PD needed to be taught a lesson). In Turin definitely not, since Fassino has been a good mayor by all accounts.

Now Renzi is in a really tough spot, and tbh this worries me because the referendum on constitutional reforms (the one eliminating the abomination that is perfect bicameralism, among other things) is coming up in October, and the right and M5S are looking forward to turning it into a referendum on #Renxit. I really hope he has a trick up his sleeve to win this, because Italy really needs those reforms.

Also, if anyone's interested, I can do graphs comparing 2016 results in big cities with the previous elections. I might end up doing them even if nobody is interested, but any interest would provide additional motivation.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Also, if anyone's interested, I can do graphs comparing 2016 results in big cities with the previous elections. I might end up doing them even if nobody is interested, but any interest would provide additional motivation.

Please do!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, if anyone's interested, I can do graphs comparing 2016 results in big cities with the previous elections. I might end up doing them even if nobody is interested, but any interest would provide additional motivation.

Please do!

Here are the compared results for the Big Four. I calculated the candidates' results as percentages of the valid votes in order to visualize the evolution of turnout, both over time and between the two round. The system is two-round FPP (runoff results for the two candidates who advanced are shown through the bars to the right, with a darker shade). The color scheme is, roughly speaking, yellow for M5S, red for PD or PD-endorsed, blue for the mainstream right, pink for candidates to the PD's left, orange for De Magistris (left-populist maverick), turquoise for the center-right, and brown for a candidate to the right of PdL/FI.


Rome



The PD municipal councilors collectively resigned earlier this year in order to trigger an early election and get rid of the controversial Marino. The campaign was marked by the massive scandal involving pervasive mafia influence in the city government. Although Marino himself is one of the few officials who hasn't been involved in this scandal, his management of the crisis was seen as weak and ineffectual.

This is the only major city where turnout actually increased compared to the previous, which is quite surprising considering the context, but might speak to the M5S' success in winning over disaffected voters. Virginia Raggi has a comparatively strong mandate, having won the support of 30% of the electorate (more than twice as much as the PD's Giachetti) in the runoff. The most striking pattern is the massive increase in support for Raggi between the two rounds, over 13 points. This clearly means that right-wing voters (especially those of the nationalist and euroskeptic Giorgia Meloni). By contrast, Giachetti picked up very little.


Milan



2011 was a triumphal year for the Italian left, and nowhere was this more obvious than in Milan, the birthplace of Berlusconism and a longtime stronghold of the right. Giuliano Pisapia, the left-wing independent who beat official PD candidates in the coalition primary, went on to win the strongest percentage of the electorate in any of these charts (in terms of valid votes, he won 55%). Pisapia remained popular throughout his term and many begged him to run again, but he honored a campaign promise and retired after one term. The left and right's candidates this year, respectively Sala and Parisi, have been described as almost identical (both have a background as technocrats and managers).

Milan was one of the few places where the traditional bipolarization held up, with the two main candidates winning over 80% of valid votes by the first round already. As a result, neither of them picked up much ground in the runoff. Sala had a slight edge in the first round, and (despite predictions that anti-Renzi mood would benefit Parisi) held on it in the runoff. It seems a majority of M5S voters still prefer the left-wing Tweedledee to the right-wing Tweedledum. Still, his mandate is weak, with barely a quarter of the Milanese electorate expressing support for him.


Naples



Luigi De Magistris is a strange case, and to describe him properly I would need several long paragraphs. In a nutshell, though, he was an insurgent left-wing candidate endorsed by the now defunct IdV (Di Pietro's anti-corruption party) who went on to edge out the establishment candidate run by the PD and subsequently trounce the right-wing candidate in the runoff. In office, he has developed a very personalistic style, with a strong anti-establishment vibe (he notably clashed with Renzi) and an image as champion of lawfulness and popular participation. I'm not familiar enough with Naples to judge how truthful his image is, but, considering this year's results, at least a few Neapolitans appear to buy it.

The between-rounds swing in 2011 was stunning, with De Magistris more than doubling his first-round showing while the right's Lettieri somehow managed to lose some of his initial voters. It's hard to tell exactly what happened, but it seems likely that many voters hadn't really considered him in the first round, and when presented with a choice between a career politician and an outsider, chose the latter by a wide margin. Turnout in 2016 dropped sharply (in the runoff, it amounted to barely a third of the electorate), which cast a shadow on De Magistris' massive victory. The two opponents in the runoff turned out to be the same as in 2011, with the official PD candidate once again failing to make it in what was seen as a personal humiliation for Renzi. And, as in 2011, Lettieri managed to lose voters in the runoff (although this time that was probably due to the fact that he was seen as a lost cause).


Turin



Poor, poor Piero Fassino. Despite having been by most accounts a good mayor, the PD bigwig went from winning an absolute majority by the first round in 2011 to a humiliating defeat in 2016. This was the first time ever since the popular election of mayors was introduced in 1993 that the left lost Turin. Along with Naples, this is the most burning defeat for Renzi's PD. While Fassino had an apparently comfortable lead in the first round, his M5S opponent Chiara Appendino, just like Raggi in Rome, made massive gains between the two rounds. She clearly took some votes from the right, which completely imploded this year and scattered between three candidates, and possibly from the left-wing dissident as well. This ability of M5S to gather broad-based support from anyone who opposes the incumbent will certainly be something to look out for in future elections.

[SPQR]

All hell's breaking loose in Rome...
The mayor's chief of staff resigned,and so did the Budget Assessor. This was apparently caused by a power struggle within the M5S, between the more "technocrat" members on one side, and Raggi and her more trusted companions (now known as the "Raggio magico",the magical ray) on the other.
The new Budget Assessor,hours after being officially announced,said in an interview that he had been contacted by a friend of his,who happens to be a very important lawyer. A lawyer who was Raggi's boss, and who worked together with Previti, Berlusconi's former lawyer,arrested for corruption.

While Raggi was trying to come to terms with it (it happened only 70 days after the elections),media reported that the Waste Disposal Assessor,Muraro,the second most important role after the Budget Assessor and who had already been talked about lengthily due to her previous work, was under investigation for...Illegal waste disposal.
Raggi,Muraro,Di Maio and all of the M5S leaders had denied for over a month that she was under investigation,even though they all knew about it.

Today Di Maio (the one who would be PM if M5S won national elections) said that he "read the email about Muraro but didn't fully understand it"...

[Senator Cris]

Raggi,Muraro,Di Maio and all of the M5S leaders had denied for over a month that she was under investigation,even though they all knew about it.

Today Di Maio (the one who would be PM if M5S won national elections) said that he "read the email about Muraro but didn't fully understand it"...

That's an hard blow for the "movement of honesty".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, basically everything M5S's detractors had warned about is coming true. Which I, as someone who was genuinely hopeful about them being a force for good at least locally, find absolutely depressing.

[DavidB.]

They were never going to be a force for the good. Maybe I'm a "conservative" in my opinions of the role that ideology should play within political parties, but I think this was always going to end badly. I prefer M5S to collapse asap rather than seeing them become even larger on the national level. The most tragic thing about this is that people's trust in Italy's democratic institutions and elected officials will be dealt another blow.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I find it pretty funny and stereotypical that Rome's second most important role is the Waste Disposal Assesor.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All hell's breaking loose in Rome...

I'm trying very hard to be surprised but am failing. What's 'told you so' in Italian?

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah, basically everything M5S's detractors had warned about is coming true. Which I, as someone who was genuinely hopeful about them being a force for good at least locally, find absolutely depressing.

Which was what (for the ignorant like me )?

[Antonio the Sixth]

All hell's breaking loose in Rome...

I'm trying very hard to be surprised but am failing. What's 'told you so' in Italian?

Te/Ve l'avevo detto.

Yeah, basically everything M5S's detractors had warned about is coming true. Which I, as someone who was genuinely hopeful about them being a force for good at least locally, find absolutely depressing.

Which was what (for the ignorant like me )?

That they'd be utterly incompetent at all the nitty gritty aspects of managing a large public administration, and devolve into constant internal squabbles with the national "directory" trying to control everything.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Te/Ve l'avevo detto.

Diolch yn fawr iawn!

[SPQR]

The new Budget Assessor,hours after being officially announced,said in an interview that he had been contacted by a friend of his,who happens to be a very important lawyer. A lawyer who was Raggi's boss, and who worked together with Previti, Berlusconi's former lawyer,arrested for corruption.

Aaaand he's gone too.
Raggi says he "did not fulfill the requirements set by M5S"...

[Senator Cris]

New polls after the Rome scandal:

SWG
PD 31 (+0.6)
M5S 25.1 (-4.4)
LN 14.1 (+1.3)
FI 13.9 (+0.3)
FDI 3.9
AP 3.4 (-0.1)
SI 3.4 (+0.9)

IPR
PD 32 (+1)
M5S 27 (-3)
LN 12.5 (-0.5)
FI 11 (+1)
FDI 5
SI 3.5
AP 3
Others 6 (+1)

Tecnè
PD 31.5 (+0.5)
M5S 27.5 (-3)
LN 13.5 (+1)
FI 13.5 (-0.5)
FDI 4.5 (+1)
SI 3.5 (+1)
AP 2.5 (-0.5)
Others 3.5 (+0.5)

[Senator Cris]

WinPoll poll: M5S loses more than 4 points in two weeks:

PD 32.8 (+1.1)
M5S 24.3 (- 4.5)
FI 12.4 (+0.4)
LN 12.2 (+1.1)
FDI 4.8 (+0.2)
SI 4.2 (+0.5)
AP 2.5

PD 33.2 (+0.9)
CD Unity List (FI + LN + FDI + Others CD) 30.8 (+2.3)
M5S 24.4 (- 5)
SI 4.1 (+0.3)
AP 2.7

They also polled the runoff. As of now, it would be a PD vs. CD runoff.

PD 55.5 (+0.5)
CD 44.5 (- 0.5)

M5S 51.5 (- 2.5)
PD 48.5 (+2.5)

M5S 54 (- 2.5)
CD 46 (+2.5)

[SPQR]

"Renzi is like Pinochet, the famous dictator from Venezuela"

Di Maio,today.
I am not sure which part is worse.

[Antonio the Sixth]

"Renzi is like Pinochet, the famous dictator from Venezuela"

Di Maio,today.
I am not sure which part is worse.

Truly amazing.

As the great Vincenzo De Luca would say, "cialtroneria pura".

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The referendum will be held on 4th December.

Polls are showing a pretty even race.

SOme stuff to consider:

- following Raggi's collapse and the spectacle of the Star Movement's national leaders making tits of themselves, Grillo has returned to full time politicking and is campaigning for NO. this could be good or bad.
-for some bizarre reason, the NO campaign has choosen as its leader Massimo D’Alema. Great idea!

.

[rob in cal]

  So, whats the likely political fallout if the "no" side prevails?

[Antonio the Sixth]

  So, whats the likely political fallout if the "no" side prevails?

Hard to say, but Renzi will be in serious trouble - possibly close to a lame duck. He said he wouldn't resign, but Renzi isn't exactly known for keeping his word.

That said, without a voting system that guarantees a clear winner, I doubt many will want to go to the polls.