Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Cassius]

The ecommunjst is q paper written n by slackjawed slopeheaded inbred public schol 20 soethings fresh out of getting spanked by thrr pervy master at Oxbridge so this Fralnkyl aijt no great surprise all thinga consisted by the standards of these stupid 'liveral bastard cints

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The ecommunjst is q paper written n by slackjawed slopeheaded inbred public schol 20 soethings fresh out of getting spanked by thrr pervy master at Oxbridge so this Fralnkyl aijt no great surprise all thinga consisted by the standards of these stupid 'liveral bastard cints

having a good evening Cass?

[FrancoAgo]

(coalition 20% within 3%)

what does that mean within this context?

Coalition threshold 20%, parties within coalition threshold 3%

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

The ecommunjst is q paper written n by slackjawed slopeheaded inbred public schol 20 soethings fresh out of getting spanked by thrr pervy master at Oxbridge so this Fralnkyl aijt no great surprise all thinga consisted by the standards of these stupid 'liveral bastard cints

jao?

[Cassius]

The ecommunjst is q paper written n by slackjawed slopeheaded inbred public schol 20 soethings fresh out of getting spanked by thrr pervy master at Oxbridge so this Fralnkyl aijt no great surprise all thinga consisted by the standards of these stupid 'liveral bastard cints

having a good evening Cass?

It was a strong evening and night I'll say that much - nonetheless that particular... screed is not really all that far away from my view of the Economist magazine, aside from the 'Ecommunist' part (although that is certainly one of the best Berlusconisms)... and I say that as someone who's read the Economist on and off since he was about 12.

[SPQR]

italy is the only western country atm in which one establishment party wants to reshape something important and the populists - left and right - are winning the fight for the status quo.

Pretty much.
Which is one of the reasons why I hope the undecideds (which pollsters estimated to be around 20% of voters, so up to 7 million people) will eventually decide to vote Yes...

[reciprocity]

What is the Beatrice Di Maio nonsense about? Yes, despite all the political implications of this ref, that is what I am interested in.

[SPQR]

What is the Beatrice Di Maio nonsense about? Yes, despite all the political implications of this ref, that is what I am interested in.

La Stampa, a Turin-based newspaper, came out with an article on a number of suspicious popular Twitter accounts. All were anti-Renzi, and each concentrated on some issue (immigrants and so on). According to some algorithm, it appeared that it was all part of some centrally-controlled system.
A few days later, Brunetta's wife (Brunetta is one of the leaders of Forza Italia) said that she was controlling one of those Twitter accounts.

All very grotesque.

BTW, yesterday BuzzFeed published an article on the Five Star Movement and the internet propaganda.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/italys-most-popular-political-party-is-leading-europe-in-fak

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

59.7% No
40.3% Yes

Turnout: 53.3%

[rob in cal]

   Wow, that big of a margin would be a huge slap in the face for Renzi, with his resignation that much more likely.
    I wonder what the regional breakdown will be.  Possible narrow yes victory in Tuscany, Emilia Romagna, losses elsewhere, but where would the biggest no victory be?

[SPQR]

I think No will win by 2-3%.

[Zinneke]

  Wow, that big of a margin would be a huge slap in the face for Renzi, with his resignation that much more likely.
    I wonder what the regional breakdown will be.  Possible narrow yes victory in Tuscany, Emilia Romagna, losses elsewhere, but where would the biggest no victory be?

Veneto

[jaichind]

I think No wins by 4%. 

Any links to results ?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

I think no wins by 8%

[ApatheticAustrian]

that "no" is about to win handily proves, that the people don't want actual change, they want to hear that other people are to blame for their troubles.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

When will the first votes come in?

[SPQR]

   Wow, that big of a margin would be a huge slap in the face for Renzi, with his resignation that much more likely.
    I wonder what the regional breakdown will be.  Possible narrow yes victory in Tuscany, Emilia Romagna, losses elsewhere, but where would the biggest no victory be?

Veneto

No is really strong in the Southern regions.
This, coupled with the fact that young voters are also more likely to vote No (...) may actually be good news for the Yes, since they're both segments of the electorate with the lowest turnout.

Anyway, polls close at 11PM, and votes should be counted pretty quickly.

[jaichind]

Italian Constitutional Referendum Turnout at 12:00 (Table)
By Giovanni Salzano
(Bloomberg) -- Following is a table showing the turnout
for Italy’s costitutional referendum. This is the third
constitutional referendum held in Italy since World War II.
===============================================================================
Region                                     12:00          19:00          23:00
===============================================================================
Italy                                      20.1%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Piedmont                                 21.6%
  Valle d’Aosta                            22.3%
  Lombardy                                 23.9%
  Trentino-Alto Adige                      21.6%
  Veneto                                   24.0%
  Friuli-Venezia Giulia                    24.4%
  Liguria                                  23.7%
  Emilia-Romagna                           26.0%
  Tuscany                                  22.2%
  Umbria                                   19.7%
===============================================================================
Region                                     12:00          19:00          23:00
===============================================================================
  Marches                                  20.2%
  Latium                                   19.5%
  Abruzzo                                  18.3%
  Molise                                   16.7%
  Campania                                 15.1%
  Apulia                                   16.4%
  Basilicata                               14.5%
  Calabria                                 13.0%
  Sicily                                   13.5%
  Sardinia                                 18.8%
===============================================================================
Note: Turnout refers to voters in Italy only.

Source: Interior Ministry

[jaichind]

It seems voting will continue until 11PM Rome time.  Wow.  I guess that means we will not see exit polls until 5PM EST.   

[SPQR]

Turnout for voters not living in Italy was 40%, up from 30ish% at the last general elections.

[bore]

[Mike88]

This map doesn't look very good for the Yes side.

[The Other Castro]

So, if NO wins, should we be seeing a possible resignation announcement tonight?

[Beezer]

What am I looking at with that map?

[ApatheticAustrian]

turnout.at noon?

isn't the south more hostile?