Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I assume there will be a caretaker government

It's still His Turn

[FrancoAgo]

So, my knowledge of Italian politics is very low, but is there likely to be an early GE now?

Almost certainly imo. Renzi will still control the PD, anf there is not even the remotest chance you could make a stable government without PD. I assume there will be a caretaker government and elextions in 2017, which I wouldn't be surprised if Renzi is favoured to come back in.

But if the runoff between PD and M5S for the bonus seats is in favor of M5S which is what the current polling shows would not M5S then capture a lower house majority and the PM position.  Not clear which election law the Senate race will be using though.

w/o senate majority it can't take PM position. The senate election law is clear, at moment, is a proportianal law with 8% threshold for parties (on regional level) and a 20% threshold for coalition ( 3% threshold for parties within coalition)

[Vosem]

The suggestion that a plurality of the popular vote should be sufficient to totally command the government is the same undemocratic lunacy that gave us Trump and it's terrific to see Italian voters rejecting it.

Uh, what?

That was phrased a little dramatically, but the point is that I am very opposed to abolishing perfect bicameralism -- in the current Italian system, the Senate can override the decisions of the lower chamber, and functions as an important check on the legislative process, while part of the suggested reform is to abolish this. Under the present system, a majority of the lower-house was elected with 29.5% of the vote in 2013; while the electoral system was changed in 2015 to make this more difficult, it is still possible to win an absolute majority as long as you exceed a 40% threshold, so you can still win an absolute majority even with most of the electorate voting against you (or, in a runoff between the top-two scoring parties, with most of the electorate simply considering you a lesser of two evils).

So, yeah, allowing a minority of the electorate to elect an absolute majority of the lower chamber of parliament and then removing a check on the power of that lower chamber seems very reckless and antidemocratic to me, and I would've voted against this referendum if I lived in Italy. I'm not thrilled about triggering a general election that M5S have a decent chance to win, but at least this way when they do win (since it seems to be a question of when, not if, at this point) they won't be able to singlehandedly enact a bunch of new legislation.

[FrancoAgo]

That was phrased a little dramatically, but the point is that I am very opposed to abolishing perfect bicameralism -- in the current Italian system, the Senate can override the decisions of the lower chamber, and functions as an important check on the legislative process, while part of the suggested reform is to abolish this. Under the present system, a majority of the lower-house was elected with 29.5% of the vote in 2013; while the electoral system was changed in 2015 to make this more difficult, it is still possible to win an absolute majority as long as you exceed a 40% threshold, so you can still win an absolute majority even with most of the electorate voting against you (or, in a runoff between the top-two scoring parties, with most of the electorate simply considering you a lesser of two evils).

So, yeah, allowing a minority of the electorate to elect an absolute majority of the lower chamber of parliament and then removing a check on the power of that lower chamber seems very reckless and antidemocratic to me, and I would've voted against this referendum if I lived in Italy. I'm not thrilled about triggering a general election that M5S have a decent chance to win, but at least this way when they do win (since it seems to be a question of when, not if, at this point) they won't be able to singlehandedly enact a bunch of new legislation.

In the Italian system the Senate is not a check on the legislative process is a half of the legislative process, every laws need the approve of both the chambers and approval of the same text a modification in a chamber need to back the law in the other.  
The possibility that both the chambers have same majority, from the elections, is rare so we are condamned a post elections coalition in the best hypotesis.

100% results 40,89% Yes, 59,11 No

for official resultds need many time only the courts can release official result

[jaichind]

There are rumors that due to the scale of defeat Renzi will be forced out of the leadership of PD.

[SPQR]

i think this was the brave and right thing to do.

renzi did "occupy" the title or prime minister to achieve things.

if the people don't want to make italy more competetive and able to survive, it's their own decision.

Wasn't one of Renzi's more recent moves to increase pensions and lower the retirement age? Sounds like the guy was a real reformer...

No.
He increased only the lowest pensions, and didn't lower the retirement age, but rather allowed those 1 or 2 years away from retirement to retire early but with a "monetary penalty". It was mostly a policy aimed at increasing job turnovers.

Anyway, yet another bitter defeat in this sh**tty year.
Getting 40% in a one-against-all is not something which should be undervalued, so Renzi is not finished politically. We'll see what happens now...with the current institutional setup, it's difficult to see how you can end up with a stable government.

Regardless of the result, it was a battle worth fighting.

[jaichind]

EMG poll that came out Sunday showed M5S 53 PD 47 for runoff.

[Diouf]

EMG poll that came out Sunday showed M5S 53 PD 47 for runoff.

But this whole runoff thingy becomes much less interesting now that the Senate still matters and has a regional based electoral system in which it will be very hard for a party to win a majority without a big lead.

[jaichind]

EMG poll that came out Sunday showed M5S 53 PD 47 for runoff.

But this whole runoff thingy becomes much less interesting now that the Senate still matters and has a regional based electoral system in which it will be very hard for a party to win a majority without a big lead.

Sure, but since a government requires that a majority for Lower House and Senate be assembled I rather be a party that wins the Lower House runoff for bonus seats since that guarantees that my party gets the PM position.  The Senate election will decided which other parties I have to rope in for power sharing. So all in all I rather win the Lower House runoff than not.

[DL]

There are rumors that due to the scale of defeat Renzi will be forced out of the leadership of PD.

Who could replace him as head of the PD that would have any appeal?

[SPQR]

There are rumors that due to the scale of defeat Renzi will be forced out of the leadership of PD.

Who could replace him as head of the PD that would have any appeal?

If he resigns it's only to force an early congress, with respect to the set date (which would be next November).
Renzi would enter the congress with 13 million people having voted for the reform, while other possible candidates would be Enrico Rossi (Tuscany's governor, left-wing but not really known nationwide) and Maurizio Martina (Agriculture Minister, also left-wing, liked by some in the party but again unknown nationwide).

[Diouf]

EMG poll that came out Sunday showed M5S 53 PD 47 for runoff.

But this whole runoff thingy becomes much less interesting now that the Senate still matters and has a regional based electoral system in which it will be very hard for a party to win a majority without a big lead.

Sure, but since a government requires that a majority for Lower House and Senate be assembled I rather be a party that wins the Lower House runoff for bonus seats since that guarantees that my party gets the PM position.  The Senate election will decided which other parties I have to rope in for power sharing. So all in all I rather win the Lower House runoff than not.

It's just that the M5S has insisted on not working with any of the other parties, and the third pole being a right-wing coalition dominated by the Lega, it is hard to see any viable compromise. It is very hard to see any PM post for the M5S even if they should win the Lower House. But yeah rather win than not, and M5S could block the PD from the PM post, but if the PD performs poorly and loses the House, then it would anyway be in such a difficult position in the Senate that it would be difficult to get majority support even for them. 

[ApatheticAustrian]

5 stars is a crazy coalition....first it seemed somewhat-anarchistic-anti-system-left, now some left-right-cross-over-pro-russia-anarchy-anti-eu-thing.

[rob in cal]

   Another irony about the 5 star movement is that now with the runoff system for the lower house is that if it can reach the runoff it looks to be in the best position to defeat either the left or the right.

[SPQR]

   Another irony about the 5 star movement is that now with the runoff system for the lower house is that if it can reach the runoff it looks to be in the best position to defeat either the left or the right.

The more ironic thing is that, had the constitutional reform passed, that would have implied an overall majority.
But, as it is, there is no electoral law which can also ensure a majority in the Senate (since seats have to be given according to the vote share in each region).

[windjammer]

Can a constitutional reform pass without a referendum?

[jaichind]

Can a constitutional reform pass without a referendum?

I think you need 2/3 majority in both houses to avoid referendum. 

[FrancoAgo]

I think you need 2/3 majority in both houses to avoid referendum.  

Yes if in the 2nd pass you get 2/3 majority in both houses the referendum is avoid

p.s. 2/3 of members not of presents

[rob in cal]

    Lost in all the excitement of Sunday's double vote (Austria and Italy), is the fact that we have yet another big polling failure.  Polls showed nowhere near a 20 point margin of victory for no, but maybe something happened in the last week when there were no more polls.

[SPQR]

    Lost in all the excitement of Sunday's double vote (Austria and Italy), is the fact that we have yet another big polling failure.  Polls showed nowhere near a 20 point margin of victory for no, but maybe something happened in the last week when there were no more polls.

To be fair, all polls showed at least 20% of undecideds...
If you consider 2/3 of them going for the No, it adds up.
And with a high turnout, this was considered to be highly possible.

I had lost all hope when I saw the huge turnout during the day.

[Tender Branson]

Results map:

% voting "No"

[rob in cal]

  Does anything stand out as surprising with this map?

[ApatheticAustrian]

alto-adige is still my politically fav part of italy.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

alto-adige is still my politically fav part of italy.

>is Austrian
>uses name Alto-Adige

what

[ApatheticAustrian]

what

südtirol-trentino which is ofc part of the REICH!

(thought that name would be better-known. like any good austrian i have family in south tyrol and the czech republic.)