Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some elements are that sure. But mostly it's just the harnessing of a howl of despair by an egomaniac with an axe to grind.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Some elements are that sure. But mostly it's just the harnessing of a howl of despair by an egomaniac with an axe to grind.

With a creepy tech/marketing executive as its guru, yes.

[Diouf]

Very interesting development. Quite a significant symbolic shift, at least. The M5S have always been at odds with the UKIP members in that the Italians have actually tried to make real parliamentary work. Also they rarely vote the same, so it has been more of a marriage of convenience to get funds etc. Curious whether ALDE will accept them, but it would make them the third-largest group again, which Verhofstadt would love.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-m5s-ukip-idUSKBN14S0HN

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

This amuses me:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qE205Mlrwtk

[DavidB.]

Very interesting development. Quite a significant symbolic shift, at least. The M5S have always been at odds with the UKIP members in that the Italians have actually tried to make real parliamentary work. Also they rarely vote the same, so it has been more of a marriage of convenience to get funds etc. Curious whether ALDE will accept them, but it would make them the third-largest group again, which Verhofstadt would love.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-m5s-ukip-idUSKBN14S0HN

In addition to that, EFD would lose its status as a parliamentary group as far as I know.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The history of the Italian left from 2012 to this day provides more than enough material to make a corny, fast-paced anime out of it. And I would LOVE to watch that anime.

[SPQR]

Very interesting development. Quite a significant symbolic shift, at least. The M5S have always been at odds with the UKIP members in that the Italians have actually tried to make real parliamentary work. Also they rarely vote the same, so it has been more of a marriage of convenience to get funds etc. Curious whether ALDE will accept them, but it would make them the third-largest group again, which Verhofstadt would love.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-m5s-ukip-idUSKBN14S0HN

I don't know what's more absurd - that M5S would join ALDE, or that ALDE would accept them, when just 2 years ago they vehemently rejected the idea of an alliance...

[Diouf]

In addition to that, EFD would lose its status as a parliamentary group as far as I know.

The limit is 25 MEPs from 7 countries. Without M5S, they will have 27 MEPs from seven countries, so they will just maintain its status if no others leave. But it is hanging on by a thread, four of the countries are only represented by one MEP. And the Sweden Democrats and Order and Justice (Lithuania) might begin to prepare for the next term, where the EFDD group will certainly not exist. It is perhaps most likely that they will go towards ECR, who looks certain to exist in the next term as well, although it will be severely weakened without the Tories. The ENF is a more uncertain possibility, and I would think that at least the Sweden Democrats would like to look a bit more, not less, mainstream.

[DavidB.]

In addition to that, EFD would lose its status as a parliamentary group as far as I know.

The limit is 25 MEPs from 7 countries. Without M5S, they will have 27 MEPs from seven countries, so they will just maintain its status if no others leave. But it is hanging on by a thread, four of the countries are only represented by one MEP. And the Sweden Democrats and Order and Justice (Lithuania) might begin to prepare for the next term, where the EFDD group will certainly not exist. It is perhaps most likely that they will go towards ECR, who looks certain to exist in the next term as well, although it will be severely weakened without the Tories. The ENF is a more uncertain possibility, and I would think that at least the Sweden Democrats would like to look a bit more, not less, mainstream.

Oh, you're right, thought the 25 MEPs had to come from 8 countries. As for SD, ENF would obviously fit their profile much better than EFD, let alone any other group. They don't want to be associated with FN/FPÖ because it hurts them nationally in the process of "mainstreaming", but ECR (which will be done anyway if the UK leave and the Tories are gone) is really not going to happen for SD. I could see them join ENF anyway.

[windjammer]

Lol Beppe Grillo and lol the Liberals.
Anyway this group will be gone after the next elections considering Brexit.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The history of the Italian left from 2012 to this day provides more than enough material to make a corny, fast-paced anime out of it. And I would LOVE to watch that anime.

I admit I spent about five repeats trying to rewatch and figure out who all the people were. All I got were the easy ones like Bersani, Prodi and Letta though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The history of the Italian left from 2012 to this day provides more than enough material to make a corny, fast-paced anime out of it. And I would LOVE to watch that anime.

I admit I spent about five repeats trying to rewatch and figure out who all the people were. All I got were the easy ones like Bersani, Prodi and Letta though.

In order of apparition: Bersani, Renzi, Prodi, Letta, Napolitano, Giovanardi, Berlusconi, Travaglio, Fini, Bossi, his son (?), Alfano, Boldrini, Monti, Vendola, Razzi, Grillo, and some guy I don't recognize.

[SPQR]

ALDE just rejected the deal.

LOL

[windjammer]

Beppe Grillo is a so big idiot

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Ayy.

Remember when Grillo claimed he was stepping back from the party?

[FredLindq]

What a joke by the clown Grillo!
However remember that Lega Nord was a member off the ELDR in the nineties...

[RodPresident]

For Grillo, joining Greens would be more more coherent and not so harming than joining leftists or liberals.

[jaichind]

Latest Ipsos Poll has M5S retaking the lead from PD 30.9% to 30.1%

[SPQR]

Big day tomorrow: the Italian "Supreme Court" will decide whether the Italicum electoral law is constitutionally valid or not.
It probably will change a few parts (such as the second round and the majority premium); what is really important is which parts will be affected and whether whatever remains afterwards could easily be used as a new electoral law or not.

Renzi has already said that PD favours a return to Mattarellum (75% of seats assigned according to single-member costituencies, 25% according to the national vote share). Same for Lega Nord.
All other parties instead want to return to a proportional electoral law (except for M5S, which changes its mind on a monthly basis), which could be pretty much what remains of the Italicum after the Court's decision.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, the next couple months are gonna be interesting.

[DavidB.]

Renzi has already said that PD favours a return to Mattarellum (75% of seats assigned according to single-member costituencies, 25% according to the national vote share). Same for Lega Nord.

Wouldn't this be really bad for the Lega?

[SPQR]

Renzi has already said that PD favours a return to Mattarellum (75% of seats assigned according to single-member costituencies, 25% according to the national vote share). Same for Lega Nord.

Wouldn't this be really bad for the Lega?

With Mattarellum, Berlusconi would be forced to ally with both Lega and Fratelli d'Italia, and in doing so, would have to give lots of seats in Northern Italy to the Lega, which is very strong there.

[rob in cal]

  Any news yet on the court decision?

[Antonio the Sixth]

  Any news yet on the court decision?

They say it should come on Wednesday.

[SPQR]

The second round has been declared unconstitutional, while the majority premium has survived.
Also, the electoral law which has come out has been declared as being immediately appliable.

In practice, there is now a proportional law with a majority premium awarded to any party getting 40% (which, at the moment, seems impossible), and with different entry thresholds between Senate and House.