Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Berlusconi needs to keel over already.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So it looks like Italy's back in recession again Again.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/07/business/international/italy-falls-back-into-recession-raising-concern-for-eurozone-economy.html?_r=0

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I still haven't been making much progress in my goal of actually learning about Italian politics

Could this lead to a reduction in the number of parties? Like voters would abandon smaller parties for bigger ones, and make the Big 3 more "big tent"?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Well I doubt that the PD can get any more 'big tent' without becoming a marquee. At this stage the Democrats are the main centre-left, centre and centre-right party in Italy simultaneously. Italy's politics in the Second Republic were so strongly defined by your relations with Don Berlusconi, the modern PD basically encompasses everybody that disliked Silvio.

Likewise, Berlusconi and Grillo's outfits can't expand, because they are not ideological beasts; but purely wrapped up in their leaders machinations and indiosyncracies. All the 'sensible' centre-right in The Silvio Machine are now in the increasingly pathetic NCD or were swallowed up by PD, while the more ideologically coherent (non-Grillo drone) members of 5SM have long gone.

Perhaps the Northern League have room to expand, mainly due to the sensible strategy to at least partially disguise the fact they think half of Italians are inbred trash. But they are a populist right parties, and such groups have a natural ceiling that prevents them from ever being a 'big tent'.

Of the smaller parties, SEL basically have their own niche and I would be highly surprised if they were swallowed by the PD and the centrist groupings are perfectly happy to have imploded on their own and certainly don't need electoral reform to help killing them off. Brothers of Italy seems a bit more curious in what purpose it exactly serves, but they'll probably chug along.

The main consequence I feel is that it will really solidify Renzi's chance of being reelected. IN a non-runoff system Renzi will be in an impossible situation - forced to ally with one of three equally unpalatable individuals. With a straight runoff however, Renzi can quite easily cakewalk over any of them.

So could we see a slight fracturing of the PD as the right-wing factions break off? Centrists too, maybe?

What's the prognosis for the future, exactly? Is PD basically going to have a long period of time in power until Berlusconi kicks the bucket and FI has to figure out what to do? Could Brothers of Italy and NCD pick off support from PD?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Another question about Italy's new run-off law: how do smaller parties fit into this? I'm not terribly familiar with parliamentary systems. If there is a run-off election, what happens to the smaller parties who recieved votes and seats according to the first election?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Another question about Italy's new run-off law: how do smaller parties fit into this? I'm not terribly familiar with parliamentary systems. If there is a run-off election, what happens to the smaller parties who recieved votes and seats according to the first election?

The representation threshold is 3%. Any party getting more than that will have seats in Parliament.

Ah, okay, I see. So then what exactly does the run-off do? Is it just to provide one of the two biggest parties with the bonus seats they should've gotten if they broke 40% to form a working majority? How exactly does that work then?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Some more bad news for Renzi and PD: the migrant crisis and corruption scandal has damaged perceptions of his party. Support for the PD in polls show only 32% support, down from 41% last May (but still leading everyone else by significant margins).

And although 41% of Italians now believe no political party can be completely free of corruption, support for M5S rose to a new all-time high of 26%. The Northern League and Forza Italia tie at 14% each.

Renzi's personal approvals have fallen to 41% (down 8 percentage points), narrowly leading Matteo Salvini by 4 points (who rose from 32% to 37% approval now).

51% of Italians say the migrants should be returned to countries of origin.

http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/migration-crisis-and-corruption-takes-toll-on-italys-matteo-renzi-773587
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Additionally, 2 Senators defected from his majority on June 4th, narrowing Renzi's majority. Mario Mauro and Tito di Maggio, left to join smaller centrist parties. PD Deputy Chief Whip Giorgio Tonini brushed it off as "non-news", saying they had been voting with the opposition for weeks.

http://www.politico.eu/article/senate-defections-complicate-life-for-renzi/
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In other news, the Senate is looking at a bill that would legalize same-sex civil unions, which Renzi would like to see debated and voted on and enacted by the end of July.

There was a big protest today in Rome against the bill and the teachings of gender theories in schools, numbering 300,000 strong.

Polling indicates that 51% of Italians support same-sex civil unions. Italy is currently the only country in Western Europe without and recognition of same sex marriage or even LGBT rights. Since Ireland voted overwhelmingly to legalize it in May, LGBT groups are confident that Italy will be next.

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1824567/thousands-protest-rome-over-italys-same-sex-marriage-proposals

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So M5S is really capitalizing on the corruption scandal in the PD, huh?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

According to Reuters, 176 of the 315 Senators have said they favour maintaining a system of direct election (i.e. oppose Renzi's Senate reform).

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/14/italy-economy-renzi-idUSL5N10P31N20150814


So how can Renzi work around this? How does one go about convincing 18 more Senators to vote themselves out of a job?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

http://scenaripolitici.com/2015/09/sondaggio-euromedia-3-settembre-2015-csx-382-42-cdx-34-m5s-251.html

Okay, so if I'm reading this correctly (per favore, correggetemi se non ho ragione):

Euromedia's poll from 3 September shows that all the center-left parties take 38,2% to the all center-right party's  collective 34% to M5S's 25,1%.

However, since not all those parties get along very well, and the Italicum law ends the electoral favoritism for coalitions (si?), the individual parties go like this:

PD 30,6% (5,5% lead)
M5S 25,1%
LN 16,5%
FI 11,9%
SEL 3,1%
FdL 3,1%
NCD 2,5%
Altri 7,2%

Also, why are polls all over the place regarding Italy? Some show only a 3% lead for the PD, others show 11% leads. What is this?

Also, is it accurate to say that Lega Nord is gaining at the expense of Forza Italia, while M5S is gaining from PD?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

In other news from the world's most hilarious political system, Beppe Grillo got sentenced to a year in prison for slandering a scientists who supported nuclear energy: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34256761

Though he is unlikely to actually serve it, he also faces damages of €50,000.

He compared his situation to Nelson Mandela and Sandro Pertini: "If Pertini and Mandela ended up in prison, I can go there too for a cause I think is just and that has been supported by the overwhelming majority of Italians"

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Rome mayor Ignazio Marino resigns, accused of spending taxpayer cash on dinner parties.

PD, che sorpresa

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

PD continues to get sucked deeper into corruption scandals


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/13/us-italy-scandal-idUSKCN0T220Q20151113#e3gmvSu8yPXmj3Tk.97


Renzi himself said today that De Luca must go.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Random question but why are the provinces of Naples and Salerno so politically conservative? Is it the general conservatism of the south? Working class + small farmer + small town thing going on?

And what caused Campania to suddenly swing so hard to the PD last year?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So there's a blow up about the civil union bill in Parliament at the moment.

NCD, UdC, FI, and a number of PD members have expressed concern about or the intention to vote against the bill because they say the stepchild adoption passage (allowing same-sex couples to adopt children from previous relationships) would allow surrogacy, which is currently outlawed in Italy (wtf??).

The bill is scheduled to hit the Senate sometime this month.

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2016/01/07/row-over-civil-unions-continues_5fa95f09-5d42-4084-aa87-8fc0c079635c.html

Renzi predicts the vote on constitutional reforms will occur on schedule in October after a final vote in April

A poll shows that 67% of Italians support the abolishment of perfectly equal bicameralism (i.e. reduce Senate power), with only 18% opposing and 15% unsure.

HOWEVER, only 33% claim to actually understand the bill in Parliament, 47% partially, and 20% claim to understand none of the proposed changes. 92% support reducing the number of Senators from 315 to 100, only 8% oppose. Only 20% support the Senators being chosen by the provinces, 36% would prefer direct election of Senators, and 45% want the Senate abolished completely.

If the referendum were held today, turnout is estimated to be only 45%, with 60% voting in favor, 21% against, and the rest undecided.

Article is in Italian, with cool slideshow pie-graphs: http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/media/Sondaggio-Istituto-Demopolis-riforma-costituzionale-secondo-italiani-c2fbdbf2-ecdf-4215-afd4-35a184899ae5.html


Additionally, Italy's central bank predicts the economy will grow 1.5% in 2016, which would be the best showing since 2010 and roughly match pre-recession growth in 2004, 2006, and 2007.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Senate passes the Senate reform in a 2nd reading. 180 for, 112 against, 1 abstention. 22 votes came from the center-right. It will go to the House again for final approval before a referendum held later this year.

http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/articoli/Senato-approva-in-seconda-lettura-le-riforme-costituzionali-parola-alla-camera-f2c8ea20-972d-4d40-89fd-937990d3df4e.html

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They also passed a whistleblower protection law. 281 yes, 71 no and 18 abstentions. However, the text was weaker than originally presented. M5S and PD teamed up to pass it, over the objections of FdI and Forza Italia.

http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/articoli/Ok-dalla-Camera-al-ddl-whistleblowing-contro-la-corruzione-f25211ff-1d9d-46a3-a5ee-e95c4c94ca7c.html

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Regarding civil unions, Lega Nord, Forza Italia, and AP presented 5,385 amendment to the bill in an attempt to derail it.

http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/articoli/Unioni-civili-valanda-di-emendamenti-al-ddl-cirinna-circa-6000-45d27002-0eaa-4067-bf8c-a1abaab88fe9.html?refresh_ce

2016 will be a wild year! Amazing how quickly some of this stuff is coming

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Who would lead the right coalition? Berlusconi, Salvini or some more palatable face?

Salvini, probably. Berlusconi is old news and desperately trying to stay relevant and not to be overshadowed by Salvini (too late, by this poll). Salvini's leadership is noted for expanding its support outside of the north and mellowing on the anti-South rhetoric of the Bossi era. They want to win and they see Salvini as their PM candidate

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So M5S is facing a lot of social media and supporter backlash for its tactics in the Senate regarding the civil unions bill yesterday.

Quick summary:

- M5S is noted for being militantly pro-LGBT rights (a product of its youth support), even having its MPs stage a kiss-in last year during a debate on same-sex civil unions in Parliament.

- M5S and PD originally teamed up to try and pass this bill. The bill originally made civil unions equal to civil marriage and contained a stepchild adoption clause.

- Two weeks ago, PD proposed a measure that would speed the passage of the bill. I'm not sure of the details, but most Italian language articles mention a "kangaroo vote" and "secret vote". I don't know what that's about; hopefully one of our Italian posters can key us in. M5S pulled support, saying they could not support the changes in parliamentary procedure "in good conscience".

- PD scrambled and had to deal with NCD and ALA (centre-right groups), who demanded that the stepchild adoption be scrapped, as they argue it would lead to surrogacy, which is illegal in Italy. They also demanded that the language of the bill make civil unions inferior to civil marriage by removing an faithfulness oath married couples must sign on their marriage licenses.

- The vote on the watered-down bill passed with overwhelming PD, M5S, and centre-right support. Renzi had staked this vote to a confidence vote and survived with 173 votes in favor when 161 are needed.

While many are very happy that something finally got done (same-sex couples can now make medical decisions for each other and claim each others partial pension benefits in the event of one partner passing away, etc.), there is a lot of anger and rage in the base of M5S against its parliamentarians for "sabotaging" the original bill.

Don't think this will negatively impact M5S in polling, elections, or among the base but it sure is embarrassing and will probably force M5S' MPs to change tactics going forward.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

- The vote on the watered-down bill passed with overwhelming PD, M5S, and centre-right support. Renzi had staked this vote to a confidence vote and survived with 173 votes in favor when 161 are needed.

Huh? If everyone voted for it overwhelmingly, why did it pass so narrowly?

I meant like it passed with the support of the overwhelming numbers of MPs from those parties, narrowly overall.


Does that make sense now?

- Two weeks ago, PD proposed a measure that would speed the passage of the bill. I'm not sure of the details, but most Italian language articles mention a "kangaroo vote" and "secret vote". I don't know what that's about; hopefully one of our Italian posters can key us in. M5S pulled support, saying they could not support the changes in parliamentary procedure "in good conscience". .

I'm not completely sure about this, and would be glad if someone could check this, but from what I have read, this would have been a way to get it passed in the Senate without having to vote on every single amendment that the right (a.k.a the usual horribles) had introduced (or planned to introduce?). I'm afraid I can't find the article I read that right now, but I will try to search for it to post here for reference.

I'm also very glad that the SVP and the Trentinese regionalists voted for this, didn't entirely expect that.

Yeah, from what I'm getting is that M5S wanted to be principled about "not ramming things through" in an "un-democratic manner", and not lead to a slippery-slope situation since M5S butts heads with PD on a lot of issues.

M5S regularly hurls the "you're acting like a dictator" charge at Renzi for regularly trying to railroad legislation through Parliament. IIRC they didn't support the Italicum law for various reasons.

Didn't Berlusocni come out in favour of gay marriage last year?

Yes, but i think he flip-flopped. Again. I still can't find votes by parties!

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

- The vote on the watered-down bill passed with overwhelming PD, M5S, and centre-right support. Renzi had staked this vote to a confidence vote and survived with 173 votes in favor when 161 are needed.

Huh? If everyone voted for it overwhelmingly, why did it pass so narrowly?

I meant like it passed with the support of the overwhelming numbers of MPs from those parties, narrowly overall.

But who's in parliament besides PD, M5S and the center-right?

The Italian Wikipedia page doesn't go into as much detail about the various parties as the English one (which hasn't been updated since February 2013 elections), but they have the updated major parties:

Government
Democratic Party: 112 seats
Popular Area (NCD-UDC): 32 *centre-right
For Autonomy (regional parties + Socialist + Foreign): 20
"Others": 7

Opposition
Forza Italia: 40 *Berlusconi
M5S: 35
Lega Nord: 12
Conservatives & Reformers: 10
Popular Alliance: 19
"Others": 34

From this breakdown, I am going to guess that most of PD supported with only some breaking away, For Autonomy mostly said yes, M5S all voted yes, Popular Alliance I know had 18 in favor, so I'm guessing that most of NCD said no and so did the others.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So what's Berlusconi really doing nowadays?

Attention-whoring.
Being a pain in Renzi's ass.
Trying to stop FI from being consumed by Lega Nord or shattering completely.
Enjoying all the cash he has from his business ventures.
Managing AC Milan (he offered to buy out Balotelli).
Trying to avoid any more convictions or community service.

Usual things for a 79 year old ex-Italian Prime Minister

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Constitutional reforms to Parliament pass final and definitive vote with 361 in favor and 7 against, rest abstaining. The referendum will be held some time in October.

The 100 member Senate will be comprised of 74 councilors (i.e. those chosen by regional councils), 21 mayors, and 5 members nominated by the President of the Republic (who will serve 7 year terms, and only are allowed one term)