Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Tender Branson]

In a 7-6 vote, a Senate panel voted that the vote to throw out Berlusconi from the Senate must be held openly, and not by secret ballot.

Excellent.

[Tender Branson]

In Lega news, Matteo Salvini (slimy, racist, populist, anti-euro hack) won the party's leadership election with 82%, crushing the Old Leader Bossi. If someone had predicted this just two years ago...

That should be excellent news ... for establishing the far-right EAF (European Alliance for Freedom) group next year.

Salvini has a good relationship with Strache and his FPÖ and invited Strache to the Lega Nord party convention in 1 week.

[Tender Branson]

Question:

What's the LN polling right now ?

And what again is the threshold in the EU elections in Italy ?

[Tender Branson]

Italy now one step closer to a new electoral law:

ROME (Reuters) - Italy's Senate approved an amendment to a new electoral law on Wednesday, paving the way to passage of a cornerstone of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's reform programme in the upper house next week.

Renzi and centre-right opposition leader Silvio Berlusconi agreed last year to jointly back electoral changes and constitutional reforms to foster more stability and efficiency in long-dysfunctional Italian politics, but the right-left pact has encountered increasing opposition from within both parties.

With votes from both Renzi's centre-left Democratic Party (PD) and Berlusconi's Forza Italia, the amendment containing major elements of the electoral law passed 175 to 110.

(...)

A final vote on the electoral law in the Senate is expected next week. It will then need to be approved by the Chamber of Deputies before becoming law.

If passed, the electoral reform foresees a premium to the party that wins the most votes as long as that group gets more than 40 percent of the total. If no party wins 40 percent in the first round, a second round would be held pitting the top two performers against each other. The threshold for any party to get into parliament would be 3 percent.

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/World/2015/01/21/Italian-Senate-vote-gives-boost-to-Renzi-electoral-law-deal

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

59.7% No
40.3% Yes

Turnout: 53.3%

[Tender Branson]

If we had the same opening times as Italy, we'd probably have 80% turnout today ...

For pete's sake, many towns around here already close at noon or 1pm !

I really wish Austria had universal opening and closing times (8am to 6pm).

[Tender Branson]

Results map:

% voting "No"

[Tender Branson]

Didn't hear much about Italy recently.

What's the status of electoral reform ?

[Tender Branson]

Italian parliament passes 2018 budget, clearing way for elections

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-budget-election/italian-parliament-passes-2018-budget-clearing-way-for-elections-idUSKBN1EH0D1

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Questions for Italian posters:

* How likely is it that the Right Bloc will form a government with M5S after the election, if they fail to win a majority of seats on their own ? What are the other most likely coalitions then ?

* What are the positions of the major Italian parties (or what did their representatives say in recent days) about ÖVP/FPÖ's proposal to offer Austrian citizenship to South Tyrolians ? I know that the right-wing Fratelli d'Italia spoke out against it, but what about the Democratic Party, the M5S, Lega etc. ?

Thx.

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know ?

Questions for Italian posters:

* How likely is it that the Right Bloc will form a government with M5S after the election, if they fail to win a majority of seats on their own ? What are the other most likely coalitions then ?

* What are the positions of the major Italian parties (or what did their representatives say in recent days) about ÖVP/FPÖ's proposal to offer Austrian citizenship to South Tyrolians ? I know that the right-wing Fratelli d'Italia spoke out against it, but what about the Democratic Party, the M5S, Lega etc. ?

Thx.

[Tender Branson]

Questions for Italian posters:

* How likely is it that the Right Bloc will form a government with M5S after the election, if they fail to win a majority of seats on their own ? What are the other most likely coalitions then ?

* What are the positions of the major Italian parties (or what did their representatives say in recent days) about ÖVP/FPÖ's proposal to offer Austrian citizenship to South Tyrolians ? I know that the right-wing Fratelli d'Italia spoke out against it, but what about the Democratic Party, the M5S, Lega etc. ?

Thx.

Forza Italia is against the policies of M5S, as of now a coalition seems unlikely. The most likely coalition is rumored to be FI+PD+minor opportunistic parties.

Giving that the illegal immigrants crisis has brought the relations between Italy and Austria to a minimum point I am surprised that most parties did not seem to care about this issue when it broke out. Anyways most Italians are fed up with the privileges enjoyed by Alto Adige, even in off-topic matters like the shaping of new electoral constituencies, and would even gladly get rid of it.

Thanks.

Didn't know that Italians are fed up with South Tyrolian autonomy ...

They should actually be happy about it, because South Tyrol is the wealthiest and most advanced region in Italy because of that autonomy statute and they (together with Trient) are shoveling billions of €s in surplus money to Rome every year to prop up the weaker Center of Italy and especially the South.

[Tender Branson]

Thanks.

Didn't know that Italians are fed up with South Tyrolian autonomy ...

They should actually be happy about it, because South Tyrol is the wealthiest and most advanced region in Italy because of that autonomy statute and they (together with Trient) are shoveling billions of €s in surplus money to Rome every year to prop up the weaker Center of Italy and especially the South.

The case you mentioned is a bit of a false myth really. These autonomous provinces manage to keep 90% of the taxes for themselves, and hostility comes a lot from Lombardy and Veneto, wealthy regions who have to contribute for a larger margin. Veneto especially has experienced the detachment of some municipalities that have joined the autonomous region of Friuli to get a better fiscal regime. The center of Italy is not that weak as well.

The fiscal reasons for hostility are mixed with historical reasons, as you probably know some South Tyroleans are hostile towards Italians for the forced annexation of their land after the Austrian defeat in WWI, the fascist prosecutions under Mussolini and some restrictions on cultural identity even in the after-war period. Some Italians are hostile towards South Tyroleans for the racist contempt they experience from them, the terrorist attacks that prompted the Democrazia Cristiana to grant an unprecedented autonomy to this province in order to make violence cease, and the fact that many terrorists are celebrated in local TVs and streets names as freedom fighters. I wonder what would happen if Italians celebrated fascist thugs in such ways. Some terrorists have escaped justice for the victims they made and are now living in Austria or Germany and are still involved in anti-Italian activities.

Having experienced this hostility on myself as a tourist there, but also having met lovely people from South Tyrol, I have to say the fiscal autonomy is partly put to very good use to provide excellent services, but also partly wasted in a very "Italian" way. Some separatist South Tyrolean politicians are even more Italian than they will ever admit . Examples of those "Italian political customs" are: the outrageous retributions of local politicians - the President of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen has a salary that matches the head of state's; the scandalous amount of local politicians' annuities despite recent cuts; the defense of those annuities, with a national debate sparkled when a South Tyrolean politician often contemptuous towards Italy, Eva Klotz - daughter of one of the aforementioned "freedom fighters" - defended her retribution funded not only by local but also national taxes; the practice of rigged public contracts to favor some local enterprises; the creation of useless administrative substructures for political reasons.

With a nationalist government in Austria I expect these local politicians to use the situation to get even more favorable deals, probably adding fuel to the fire.

A lot of what you say is true of course, but the Italian discontent seems to be based on historic developments that are pretty meaningless right now (such as the - understandable* - terrorist/FF actions by South Tyrolians) and also some kind of envy economically and financially. While you are right that - in theory - 90% of taxes remain in the autnomous regions, in practice this is often not the case as Rome takes some 50 years to repay the taxes they are collecting from these wealthy regions. Besides, South Tyrol and Co. have much larger regional budgets than other Italian regions and therefore pay a lot more taxes to Rome per capita. Previous Italian governments often sought to milk the richer regions, because Rome is extremely incompetent and wasteful itself when it comes to money.

*understandable, that in a sense the Allied Forces were extremely stupid to award South Tyrol to Italy after WW1. A region that was 95% Tyrolian and part of Tyrol and a different culture and language in general. Just another example how stupid politicians can be, as they do not understand the situation on the ground and like to look at maps and tear peoples apart. Besides, Italy used to brutally colonize and Italianize South Tyrol after 1918, committing many human rights abuses in the population. Which of course led to resistance and "terrorism" (I'm leaning more towards FFs). Still, this is a thing of the past and the autonomy statutes today are an example for other regions in the World such as Catalonia. If you allow them to have greater autonomy, the chances are higher that the money is spent wisely on the regional level rather than being wasted in an inefficient and corrupt way - like in Rome. Rome could learn a thing or two from South Tyrol, especially on the economy, school system, public transport, the environment and unemployment.

[Tender Branson]

A lot of what you say is true of course, but the Italian discontent seems to be based on historic developments that are pretty meaningless right now (such as the - understandable* - terrorist/FF actions by South Tyrolians) and also some kind of envy economically and financially. While you are right that - in theory - 90% of taxes remain in the autnomous regions, in practice this is often not the case as Rome takes some 50 years to repay the taxes they are collecting from these wealthy regions. Besides, South Tyrol and Co. have much larger regional budgets than other Italian regions and therefore pay a lot more taxes to Rome per capita. Previous Italian governments often sought to milk the richer regions, because Rome is extremely incompetent and wasteful itself when it comes to money.

*understandable, that in a sense the Allied Forces were extremely stupid to award South Tyrol to Italy after WW1. A region that was 95% Tyrolian and part of Tyrol and a different culture and language in general. Just another example how stupid politicians can be, as they do not understand the situation on the ground and like to look at maps and tear peoples apart. Besides, Italy used to brutally colonize and Italianize South Tyrol after 1918, committing many human rights abuses in the population. Which of course led to resistance and "terrorism" (I'm leaning more towards FFs). Still, this is a thing of the past and the autonomy statutes today are an example for other regions in the World such as Catalonia. If you allow them to have greater autonomy, the chances are higher that the money is spent wisely on the regional level rather than being wasted in an inefficient and corrupt way - like in Rome. Rome could learn a thing or two from South Tyrol, especially on the economy, school system, public transport, the environment and unemployment.

As for autonomy, if I remember correctly, South Tyrol enjoys a larger power by being an autonomous province within Italy and would probably have a reduced status as an Austrian Land. But as I said previously, reading the comments here and there - mostly on social media or newspapers - about this issue, some Italians are inclined to say goodbye to Alto Adige/South Tyrol just to avoid listening to any further polemics about taxation, oppression, racial differences, superiority vs inefficiency and so on.

That's exactly what I have argued all the time ... that autonomy within Italy is the best thing for them and I assume that South Tyrolians would even uphold that status-quo in a referendum.

That's why I also favour the status-quo.

See my thread here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=278485.0

[Tender Branson]

Gunman targets African migrants in Italy's Macerata

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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42930749

[Tender Branson]

Here is more background on the 18-year old Italian girl that was killed and dismembered by that Nigerian immigrant:

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http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2018/02/01/nigerian-charged-with-murdering-dismembered-teen-4_2a33e0f2-0052-4c4c-b1c3-63ff948c0ad3.html

[Tender Branson]

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/05/silvio-berlusconi-says-illegal-migrants-social-time-bomb-race/

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/05/berlusconi-pledges-to-deport-600000-illegal-immigrants-italy-election

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is expected to be very low this time:

Only between 60-68%, which would be down from 75% in 2013 and 80% in 2008.

[Tender Branson]

If polls only close at the IMO ridiculous time of 23:00 (11pm), then you guys have all the time to follow the Carinthia state election, where polls already close at the more reasonable time of 17:00 (5pm) ...

[Tender Branson]

Italy has the latest poll closing anywhere in the world I think

Not quite sure why it has to be so late when France/Spain are 8pm, Germany 6pm (and Austria 5pm!)

Does anyone have links for Italian TV stations which won't be geoblocked? (ideally Italian TV not an English-language channel)

Thanks!

DC

Yeah, a poll closing time of 23:00 is absurd. Even 9pm or 10pm is too late.

The ideal opening times IMO are 8am to 5-6pm, so that the counting is done by 8-9pm and everyone can go to bed.

It's extremely idiotic to keep the polls open that long so that people have to count votes the whole night ...

[Tender Branson]

Question for Italian posters:

Where can you find the latest polls - masked as horse races - again ?

All regular polling sites have stopped publishing new polls because of the polling ban ...

[Tender Branson]

My FINAL prediction for Italy tomorrow:

38.5% Right (18.5% Forza Italia, 14.5% Lega, 4.0% FdI, 1.5% NcI)
30.5% M5S
22.5% Center-Left (18.5% PD, 3.0% E+, 1.0% Others)
  4.5% F&E
  1.0% PaP
  1.0% CPI
  2.0% Others

Result: No coalition wins a majority of seats in the parliament.

Turnout: 69.8% (-5.4%)

M5S will easily become the largest party and will likely beat the polls again. I expect Forza Italia and the PD to battle it out for 2nd place (list vote for the Chamber of Deputies only, impossible to say who will come out ahead in terms of seats). Lega Nord will get a good result (especially in the North and Center of Italy, while also getting a respectable result in the South), but will not beat Forza Italia after all. I looked up historical results and it seems very unlikely that they will beat them in all of Italy. It would need a huge result for them in the North, but that probably won't happen.

In general, I think that the Left (PD & Co. + F&E) will underperform tomorrow, because Italians are sick and tired of the recent massive migrant inflows from Africa and the crime that came with it and they will therefore send some signal to them.

The Right should do well and profit from the migrant wave, while M5S will profit from the economic mess that Italy has still not recovered from over the past 5 years, with constant high unemployment/underemployment, low wages and still favourable conditions for populism.

[Tender Branson]

Anyhow, a journalist friend of mine gave me the average of the unpublished polls from the last 14 days.
Not much has changed with respect to before. M5S slightly up, LeU slightly down, +Europa ending very strongly.
What remains to be seen is how undecideds will break (reminder: many of them voted for PD in 2013 and/or 2014), and whether there were any structural errors in the polls.

I think if turnout is higher than projected (and it is projected to be really low this time for Italian standards: 65-70%), so maybe in the 72-78% range, it would be better for the PD. They would likely not drop below 20% in such a scenario.

[Tender Branson]

Anyhow, a journalist friend of mine gave me the average of the unpublished polls from the last 14 days.
Not much has changed with respect to before. M5S slightly up, LeU slightly down, +Europa ending very strongly.
What remains to be seen is how undecideds will break (reminder: many of them voted for PD in 2013 and/or 2014), and whether there were any structural errors in the polls.

I think if turnout is higher than projected (and it is projected to be really low this time for Italian standards: 65-70%), so maybe in the 72-78% range, it would be better for the PD. They would likely not drop below 20% in such a scenario.

Not one poll has shown PD below 20%, so that would be the surprise, not the opposite.

True. But the polls have shown a significant downward trend for them in the past weeks and the even more left-wing parties saw some gains instead. And M5S is cutting deeply into their electorate as well.

So, it could be likely that the PD is heading the way of the SPD tomorrow ... but higher-than-projected turnout could prevent them from a total disaster, like it did for the SPÖ last year.

[Tender Branson]

I should have sticked with my original prediction which had the Lega 4 points ahead of Berlusconi.



It was only when I looked up historical election results on Wikipedia that I decided to put Berlusconi ahead ...

[Tender Branson]

Italians' mood right now: