Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

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So all 4 go to the convention and primary?

No,Pittella won't go to the primary.

Anyhow a close result was expected in this vote;+8 Renzi is actually a great result.

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Icing on the cake would be Civati pulling ahead of Cuperlo, though the gap seems a bit too wide to be bridged.

Oh would I have loved that! (I am a Renzi supporter)

Anyway,sweet day.
Until yesterday,we all thought that even 2 millions was an unrealistic threshold,given the fall in funding and in the number of voting spots.

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I wasn't under the impression that Renzi was at all a left-winger within the context of PD.

Left-wingers voted for him (his best results were in Emilia Romagna and Tuscany!) because they were sick of the old guard which has ruined the Italian left in the last 20 years or so.

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Horrible decision by Renzi...

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Antonio, what if anything do you know about these people as individuals?

Not much, tbh. Moretti and Bonafè are mid-level political figures who are sometimes mentioned in the news, but I can't remember which currents they hail from. The other three I hadn't heard about before.

Bonafè is a long-standing Renzi supporter.
Moretti was one of the three "youngsters" chosen by Bersani to accompany him during the '13 political elections,but since then she has distanced herself from the PD minority.
Chinnici is the daughter of a judge killed by the mafia in the 80's.

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Yesterday Renzi presented his final plan for the 1000€ income tax cut.

There are a few disappointments. The measure is covered only for the year 2014 (though he promised to make it permanent), and more importantly, it doesn't cover the lowest incomes (those who didn't even pay taxes). Still, it's better than nothing. And Renzi found different ways to cut spending without really hurting the social safety net, which is a welcome change from previous governments.

He promised a measure within the next weeks for the even-lower incomes.

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Berlusconi says for Germans, "concentration camps never existed."

"A Berlusconi stalwart, former education minister Mariastella Gelmini, dismissed the flap as campaign propaganda."

Lol, ok.

The weirdest part is that it seems like there was absolutely 0 reason to even approach that topic in the first place.

Forza Italia's campaign is purely anti-german.
Their motto is "more Italy and less Germany in the EU"...

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Why am I not surprised that Berlusconi has Cosa Nostra links?

It's been known for decades.

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This more than compensates for that horrendous afternoon in February '13...

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When do they start counting for the regionals? Piemonte is shaping up to be a huge landslide too!

Yes,even though the no-TAV in the Val di Susa will help Grillo.
Abruzzo will be much,much tighter.
Anyway results should start flowing in around 3/4...

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Lega Nord attracted A LOT of former M5S voters in Northern Italy.

Overall,with respect to the 2013 elections,PD gained some 3 million votes,while Grillo's movement lost around 2.

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Let me guess, turnout in each city was much lower than in the first round?

As usual.

Overall,PD won around 65% of all cities,and 19 out of 29 "capoluoghi",so very impressive result.

The bad results in Perugia and Livorno are mostly due to local weaknesses;the centerleft has ruled there for a long time and not in a good way,so a defeat could be expected,and might even be positive in that part of the "old party" (D'Alema and Bersani's people,who dominate especially in PD strongholds) will be dismissed also at the local level.

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I'm under the impression, true or false, that Livorno is a quite left-wing city of workers tradition. Is the M5S vote there a kind of left-wing protest vote against a tired PD establishment or something else ?

Exactly.

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There is supposed to be a timetable, but it keeps being postponed for one reason or the other... Renzi now says he wants to get the Senate reform done by the end of the summer, but I have a hard time believing it, considering how tortuous the process for constitutional reform is. Also, Berlusconi is seemingly distancing himself from his former commitment (not surprising, but still), which will make its path to a majority a bit narrower - though still practicable. Basically, we really have to wait and see.

Pretty much.
Senate,electoral law,justice and PA reform are next in line.
The first two are the priorities,after which Napolitano could possibly resign. Not that it would facilitate anything,tbh.

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Today Renzi met with M5S leaders, who finally agreed to have a discussion/negotiation on electoral reform (for which they unveiled their own proposal). The meeting was broadcast on live stream. So, in short, there's still a long way to go, but both sides showed some good will and further meetings should follow. If they're serious about this, it's actually a great occasion to significantly improve the law.

This is because most of the right has flaked out of their commitment to this, isn't it?

Interestingly, Berlusconi had actually re-endorsed the compromise a few days before M5S led their availability be known (of course Berlusconi's word is never worth much, but still at least in theory the plan was back on track). What's really surprising is the M5S' sudden openness to discussion and compromise with other parties, something that was thought impossible mere weeks ago. The results of the last elections may have something to do with it though.

I can imagine some more rabid 5-star activists are none too happy, no?

Not as far as I know. The most rabid wing of the M5S base basically consist of Grillo cultists who'll support anything he supports and despise anything he despises - so I guess as long as Grillo gives his blessing to these efforts (he might very well disown them at some point) things will go on.

The whole Grillo cult is really weird, its hard to see the appeal of the guy. Who are the Grillo cultists?

He speaks loud and (at least somewhat rightfully) thrashes the Italian political class for its evil deeds. He's basically your standard 21st century demagogue, just without the xenophobic undertones that accompanies it elsewhere and instead with a weird fascination for Teh Internetz instead. I don't have details about the demographics of the M5S hardcore, but the common stereotype holds that it's mostly made of youth with little economic capital but at least some cultural capital. The typical postmaterialist internet activist who's probably fond of Anonymous, hates politicians, believes the internet alone will usher in freedom and prosperity throughout the world, and is very pissed off because he's unemployed while greedy banksters get their pockets filled. Don't know if that's a faithful depiction, though.

Indeed.
Plus all of the conspiracy guys.


As for the Perot comparison,I would disagree. M5S tends to be much more violent,speech-wise.

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On the bright side, Senate reform is about to pass! Final vote probably tonight or tomorrow.

Ok I think I finally found a source that explained the process.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/renzi-to-test-senate-resistance-on-plans-to-remake-italian-state.html

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So that earlier vote of 194-126 (60.6%) basically guarantees there will be a referendum because there won't be a two-thirds supermajority on the floor vote, right?

Renzi said he was in favour of the referendum anyway,so that leftist politicians can realize that Italians are in favour of the reform. No 50% quorum anyway.

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M5S went from 25% to 2,5%...hilarious.

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Tomorrow morning we'll have President Mattarella.
Nice.
Amazing work by Renzi,as usual.

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Renzi is a BEAST.

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Renzi is a BEAST.

I didn't say it before because I didn't want to jinx it, but yeah, Renzi just proved that he is really a masterful politician. He managed to milk Berlusconi and FI for all its worth on the vote for institutional reforms, then managed to reunify the increasingly divided PD with the Presidential election. Renzi is the only left-wing politician who understands the need to take a gamble, to risk a little to gain a lot. Any other PD leader would have spent weeks to cautiously craft an agreement with Berlusconi, thus losing credibility in public opinion and opening himself for defections inside his party. Renzi chose to think about the bigger picture, and made to both his party and the right an offer they couldn't refuse. He used all the tools he could (including blackmailing Alfano with threats of a government crisis) to ensure it would work, and it paid off. Now Berlusconi is marginalized even within his own party, the PD  is speaking with the same voice, and for the next 7 years Italy will have a President who won't bow down to anybody's whims.

In short, Renzi isn't the leader the left deserves, but he's the leader the left needs.

Couldn't agree more.

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Republican Party was also a bit of a bourgeois party,for those who didn't like the DC but wouldn't quite go as far as voting for PCI or PSI.

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Polls give Zaia a 10% lead,and in Veneto the left tends to overpoll...safe CD.

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The school reform has been summarized pretty well by you guys.
IMHO,it's a perfectly legitimate reform, going a loooong way towards solving the issue of the part-time teachers, also because it changes the situation structurally (ensuring there won't be hundreds of thousands of new part-time ones a few years from now).

Except for hardcore Renzi haters, the reform is liked also in the public opinion. As usual, it's the unions which are making a big fuss, especially the teachers. Since they are a relevant part of PD's electorate,Renzi has had to make some concessions.






As for the regional elections: yeah,2 semi-pure tossups (Liguria and Campania) and one race which might be a surprise,Umbria.
PD lost in Perugia last year,because much like in Livorno it had governed it for decades and lost touch with the citizens. Now polls show a 3-5 points advantage for PD's candidate, Catiuscia Marini,but I really don't feel comfortable about it. I have friends there who are long-time PD supporters but will just stay at home,since they are tired of the regional party and leadership.

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Good technical explanation. I myself learnt some new things
Anyway yes,I obviously meant fixed-term workers rather than part-time ones.

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De Luca is probably toast at this point. Berlusconi must be rejoicing, as FI will at least keep one region.

To be honest,I am not sure Campania's voters will care all that much.