Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Antonio the Sixth]

Alright, here's the new Italy fad! Discuss Berlusconi's antics, the PD's uselessness and Grillo's trolling here.

If you want a comment from me on the past few sequences, I'll just say this: things could be about to get better, but this is Italy, so let's stay cautious.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cuperlo is D'Alema's handpicked candidate. He's probably not a bad guy himself, but he has zero charisma and would probably be completely useless.

Civati is by far the best choice: young and energetic like Renzi, but actually left-wing. But he seems to have no chance.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When is the final Berlusconi expulsion vote scheduled for?

November 27th.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's official: PdL is gonna split.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The only thing that matters is that they will keep propping up the government no matter what (that's the whole reason behind the split), thus defusing any incentive PD had to avoid expelling Berlusconi from the Parliament.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Renzi will win big. Sad to see Civati not doing any better, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Massive floods in Sardinia yesterday night and today. Already 18 deaths confirmed. As usual Italian disaster relief sucked big time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Coalition including former Premier Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and new center right group formed by deputy premier Alfano at 37% vs 34.6% last week, according to poll by SWG of voting intentions.

Center-left including Premier Letta’s PD party at 32.9% vs 33.3% last week: SWG
Grillo’s Five-Star Movement at 19.8% vs 20.8%: SWG
Undecideds and abstentions 40% vs 41.5% last week: SWG

NOTE: Poll conducted Nov. 19-20 on 1,000 interviews

Why three significant figures?

For some reason, Italian pollsters seem to believe decimals are valuable information.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Coalition including former Premier Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and new center right group formed by deputy premier Alfano at 37% vs 34.6% last week, according to poll by SWG of voting intentions.

Center-left including Premier Letta’s PD party at 32.9% vs 33.3% last week: SWG
Grillo’s Five-Star Movement at 19.8% vs 20.8%: SWG
Undecideds and abstentions 40% vs 41.5% last week: SWG

NOTE: Poll conducted Nov. 19-20 on 1,000 interviews

Why three significant figures?

For some reason, Italian pollsters seem to believe decimals are valuable information.

2006 and 2013 were quite close...

Yes, but, as both these elections showed, the pollsters' margin of error goes well beyond the single percentage point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

[Antonio the Sixth]

I so wish Civati had a chance... The only one who had the guts to say that the Letta government is sh*t.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At 17:00 PM (Italy Time) the vote for decay of Berlusconi.

Decay?

That's how they call an expulsion from the parliament in Italy (decadenza).

[Antonio the Sixth]

At 17:00 PM (Italy Time) the vote for decay of Berlusconi.

Decay?

That's how they call an expulsion from the parliament in Italy (decadenza).

How appropriate

You can't imagine how many jokes about this we have cracked in my family in the past couple months.

(hint: my display name is one of them )

[Antonio the Sixth]

What the CC did is effectively take us back to full-scale PR (with a small threshold, but still). Not exactly the kind of system Italy needs right now.

It's time to see if Renzi can actually force the government/parliament to do something serious about electoral reform, because otherwise we're screwed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just registered to vote in the primaries.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=183537.0

Vote!

[Antonio the Sixth]

In Lega news, Matteo Salvini (slimy, racist, populist, anti-euro hack) won the party's leadership election with 82%, crushing the Old Leader Bossi. If someone had predicted this just two years ago...

[Antonio the Sixth]

What's the LN polling right now ?

Around 3-4%.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not sure, I'll look it up when I've time.

Turnout at 12.00: 980.000 voters (great result)

The turnout at 12.00 should be of 1.100.000 voters.

Awesome! What do you think will be the final turnout?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Threshold for Euro elections is 4%

I went to vote to PD primary this afternoon and backed Civiti. I hope he can go above 15%

*hughughug*

He will get 3 more votes from here, since I convinced all my family to vote for him.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout at 12.00: 980.000 voters (great result)

The turnout at 12.00 should be of 1.100.000 voters.

Awesome! What do you think will be the final turnout?

2,5 mln - 2,9 mln

Wonderful! It's good to see so many people still haven't lost hope and are eager to make politics better.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where's he getting these numbers from?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where's he getting these numbers from?

From Renzi's website, but the Pd's website said:

30,2% reporting

Renzi 344.565 (68,4%)
Cuperlo 91.039 (18,1%)
Civati 67.833 (13,5%)

Dominating.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Icing on the cake would be Civati pulling ahead of Cuperlo, though the gap seems a bit too wide to be bridged.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No idea why it takes so long to count those 1000 precincts... But regardless, it's a wonderful victory, well beyond the wildest expectations. After waiting way too long, left-wingers finally woke up and told the old guard to go f**k themselves. Now it's time to try something new.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I wasn't under the impression that Renzi was at all a left-winger within the context of PD.

The hope for a left-wing turn for the PD is nonexistent at this point and probably will be so for at least a decade. In this context, I couldn't really care less where its members position themselves ideologically (since even the "real leftists" like Bersani and D'Alema were centrists in practice). Renzi is left-wing in the sense that he's actually trying to make things marginally better, something on which most of the PD has effectively given up.