Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Andrea]

Trento provincial elections


Rossi (PD-PATT-UPT-Landis-Greens-Socialists) 58.12%
Masna (local lists) 19.28%
Fugatti (Lega) 6.59%
De Gasperi (5 Stars) 5.72%
Bezzi (Forza Trentino) 4.27%
Arisi (SEL) 1.78%
De Eccher (Brothers of Italy) 1.54%
Casagranda (Communists) 1.14%
then 3 candidates below 1%

Council

PD 22.07%, 9 seats
PATT (Autonomists) 17.55%, 7 seats
UPT (centrist of Center-Left coalition) 13.33%, 5 seats
Ladins 1.14%, 1 seat
rest of center-left coalition 0 seat

Progetto Trentino 9.03%, 4 seats
Civica Trentono 3.7%, 1 seat
Amministrare Trentino 2.1%, 1 seat
+ Masna
no seats for other lists of his coalition

Lega 6.22%, 1 seat (+ Fugatti)

5 Stars 5.84%, 1 seat (+ De Gasperi)

Forza Trentino 4.42%, 0 seat (but Bezzi elected)

no representation for other lists and candidates

[Andrea]

Basilicata count very slow in reporting. Turnout collapsed from 62.8 to 47.6%

With 259 polling stations reported out of 681, Pittella (centre-left, brother of Pittella MEP running for the leadership) is far ahead with 60.79%. PDL candidate is at 21.43%, M5S at 10.85%, SEL at 4.69%.

PD provisional results among party members released by the party today

Renzi 46.7%
Cuperlo 38.4%
Civati 9.2%
Pittella 5.7%

[Andrea]

Basilicata

Pittella (PD+Socialists+Democratic Centre+Italy of Values) 59.60%
Di Maggio (PDL+Civic Choice+UDC) 19.38%
Pedicini (5 Stars) 13.19%
Murante (SEL) 5.16%
everybody else below 1%

Lists

PD 24.83% (4 seats)
Pittella President 16.01% (3)
Socialists 7.47 (1)
Realtà Italia 5.92% (1)
Democratic Center 5.04 (1)
+ 2 seats for the Pittella's Coalition
....
PDL 12.27 (2)
Civic Choice 5.08 (1)
UDC 3.8 (1)
+ 1 seat for the coalition
...
5 Stars  8.97% (2)
....
SEL 5.16% (1)

[Andrea]

Threshold for Euro elections is 4%

I went to vote to PD primary this afternoon and backed Civiti. I hope he can go above 15%

[Andrea]

Final PD results finally released

Renzi 1,895,252
Cuperlo 510,970
Civati 399,473

Total voters: 2,814,801

[Andrea]

Final PD results finally released

Renzi 1,895,252
Cuperlo 510,970
Civati 399,473

Total voters: 2,814,801

These numbers don't add up.

9.106 spoilt ballots

[Andrea]

PD candidates for EU elections

www.partitodemocratico.it/doc/267035/i-candidati-alle-elezioni-europee-2014.htm

[Andrea]

Bonafé is from Renzi's camp.

Moretti arrived on the national scene as Bersani's press spokepersone during his primary campaign

Picierno is close to Franceschini.

Mosca worked for Letta.

Caterina Chinnici is a magistrate and didn't previously take part to elective political world.

Nicolini (mayor of Lampedusa) withdrew from Sicily-Sardinia list after being placed third.
Emiliano (mayor of Bari) is also threatening withdrawal

Anyway they are open list. So voters can list preferences and elected MEPs won't depend on the list place. Obviously being at the top helps but some people in second or third position will likely beat the current head of lists.

[Andrea]

Eu elections Polls (9-11 April)....Datamaedia/Piepoli/IPSOS/EMG/IXE'
 
PD 31.3/33/33.9/33.9/32.2%
M5S 24.3/24.5/22.3/22.5/25.2%
FI 20/19/20.5/20.9/19.1%
NCD-UDC 5/6/5.3/5.1/5.2%
Lega 5/4/5.8/4.4/5.3%
Tsipras 3.9/4.5/3.1/3.1/4.2%
Brothers of Italy 3.3/3.5/3/3.4/3.6%
Civic Choice & Co 2.3/2.4/3.4/2.1/1.9%

[Andrea]

Euro poll in the Corriere this morning

PD 35% (28 seats + 1 for SVP)
M5S 21.4% ((18 seats)
Forza Italia 19.6% (17)
New Centre Right 6.4% (5)
Lega 4.9% (4)
Brothers of Italy 3.8%
European Choice 3.5%
Tsipras 2.9%

[Andrea]

The newly elected MEPs (some will join later after some resignations from Salvini, Fitto & co).

CIRCOSCRIZIONE NORD OVEST

PARTITO DEMOCRATICO (9): Alessia Mosca, Sergio Cofferati, Mercedes Bresso, Patrizia Toia, Panzeri Pierantonio, Renata Briano, Luigi Morgano, Beniferi Brando, Daniele Viotti
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE (4): Beghin Tiziana, Marco Valli, Eleonora Evi, Marco Zanni
FORZA ITALIA (3): Giovanni Toti, Lara Comi, Alberto Cirio
LEGA NORD (2): Matteo Salvini, Gianluca Buonanno
L'ALTRA EUROPA CON TSIPRAS (1): Moni Ovadia
NUOVO CENTRODESTRA - UDC (1): Maurizio Lupi

CIRCOSCRIZIONE NORD EST

PARTITO DEMOCRATICO (6): Alessandra Moretti, Flavio Zanonato, Cécile Kyenge, Paolo De Castro, Isabella De Monte, Elly Schlein
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE (3): David Borrelli, Marco Affronte, Giulia Gibertoni
FORZA ITALIA (2): Elisabetta Gardini, Remo Sernagiotto
LEGA NORD (2): Matteo Salvini, Flavio Tosi
SVP (1): Herbert Dorfmann

CIRCOSCRIZIONE CENTRO

PARTITO DEMOCRATICO (7): Simona Bonafè, David Sassoli, Enrico Gasbarra, Goffredo Bettini, Nicola Danti, Silvia Costa, Roberto Gualtieri
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE (3): Laura Agea, Fabio Massimo Castaldo, Dario Tamburrano
FORZA ITALIA (2): Antonio Tajani, Alessandra Mussolini
L'ALTRA EUROPA CON TSIPRAS (1): Barbara Spinelli
LEGA NORD (1): Matteo Salvini

CIRCOSCRIZIONE SUD

PARTITO DEMOCRATICO (6): Gianni Pittella, Pina Picierno, Elena Gentile, Massimo Paolucci, Andrea Cozzolino, Nicola Caputo
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE (5): Isabella Adinolfi, Laura Ferrara, Rosa D'Amato, Daniela aiuto, Piernicola Pedicini
FORZA ITALIA (4): Raffaele Fitto, Aldo Patriciello, Fulvio Martusciello, Barbara Matera
NOVO CENTRODESTRA - UDC (1): Lorenzo Cesa
L'ALTRA EUROPA CON TSIPRAS (1): Barbara Spinelli

CIRCOSCRIZIONE ITALIA INSULARE

PARTITO DEMOCRATICO (3): Renato Soru, Caterina Chinnici, Michela Giuffrida
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE (2): Ignazio Corrao, Giulia Moi
FORZA ITALIA (2): Salvo Pogliese, Salvatore Cicu
NUOVO CENTRODESTRA - UDC (1): Giovanni La Via

[Andrea]

They are counting the ballots of mayoral run offs right now.

PD takes Vercelli and Verbania in a landslide. Good win in Biella too.
PdL lose Pavia. Giorgio Gori gain Bergamo.
Bari is easy for PD. Same in Pescara

But

They are losing in Padova and Potenza.
They have lost Livorno to 5 Stars....and Perugia to center/right!!'

[Andrea]

Mayoral run offs:


Centre-Left hold: Modena, Terni, Bari

CL gain from CR: Biella, Vercelli, Verbania, Bergamo, Pavia, Cremona, Pescara

5Stars gain from CL: Livorno

CR gain from CL: Padova, Perugia, Foggia, Potenza

CR hold: Teramo


Perugia's first round result was luckluster but it was the same in next door Terni. Terni was held easily in the run off. In Perugia the incumbent mayor was swept away yesterday. He lost over 14,000 votes compared to 2 weeks ago

[Andrea]

Among the total indifference of everybody, the indirect  (electorate is made up by mayors and municipal councillors) election for new presidents of Provinces and for provincial councils took place today in the great majority of areas.

[Andrea]

Anything interesting happen?

Labor reform passed in the Senate in a confidence vote, Renzi is relieved, Berlusconi and Grillo make their usual antics... So no, nothing worthwhile.

Nah I meant in the indirect elections. More Renzimania?

I guess I called it with the wrong term. In Italian it's "elezioni di II livello". How is it translated?

Basically the electorate is formed by mayors and local councillors. As PD dominated latest round of local elections, they also  won in the great majority of places yesterday

In Catanzaro Forza Italia city mayor lost and ended up at the hospital after a fight against a former local cabinet memebr at the end of the count

Right won Cosenza, Lecce, Avellino. UDC in Barletta-Andria-Trani. Almost everything else to PD
Some areas had only 1 candidate. There were also some PD-Forza Italia alliances (Livorno).

[Andrea]

Centre-left easily gain Reggio Calabria mayorality in yesterday's special election.

197 counted out of 218

Centre-left candidate 61.24%
Centre-right (Forza Italia + NCD+FdI+local lists 27.21%
Local lists + spoof lists like Grillo Parlante-No Euro 3.2%
M5S 2.5%
5 other mayoral candidates not reaching 2% (2 below 1%)

[Andrea]

Bolzano mayoral election run off


Luigi Spagnoli (PD-SVP; incumbent since 2005) 57.7%
Alessandro Urzì (Forza Italia) 42.3%

turnout 40.7%

[Andrea]

I think you are reffering to teachers with fixed lenght contracts rather than part-time teachers.

and partly to hire new teachers.

the whole teachers' hiring system in Italy is quite byzantine.
I don't even know how translate some terms....I will try to explain

Right, the first thing is the difference between "organico di diritto" and "organico di fatto". It's basically the workforce needed.
Every year the ministry sets the staffing level needed. However the hirings with permanent contracts are done only on the "organico di diritto". The national total of "organico di diritto" was pre-fixed by Mrs Gelmini and the law was never changed. They can move places from primary to secondary schools, from one region to another, but they can't exceed the total pre-fixed. It is 600,839 teachers for  curricular teachings. Then there are "supporting" teachers ("posti di sostegno") for children with special needs (with a certification). The staffing levels for supporting teachers is set at 90,032 after Mrs Carrozza (under Letta's government increased them).
However, schools could need more teachers for various reasons. For ex they usually have 3 classes but there're more requests this years and therefore a 4th class is created. Then there'are the so-called "spezzoni" (number of hours lower than those needed for a full-time place) which can't be combined with hours from other schools. Teachers can ask for part-time and so there're hours to be covered by somebody else. The vice head-teacher can opt out some regular classes hours. Etc.
Hence every year, usually during the summer, the minister then grants the so-called "Organico di Fatto". It's basically the workfoce they really need for that year. Teachers hired on "organico di fatto" have contracts lasting until 30 June.

In recent years when setting up the hirings with permanent contracts they never totally covered all the available places on "organico di diritto" but only a % of them.
Teachers hired with fixed term contracts on "organico di diritto" places have contracts from September to 31 August.

One of the problems for the government is that some people have worked for more than 36 months with fixed term contracts. EU already sentenced against Italy for such practice. However you need to have worked with a fixed term contract on a vacant job place (difference between "posto disponibile" and "posto vacante e disponibile").

Then there's the whole saga on which "rankings" (graduatoria) people are hired from. There are
graduatoria di merito" (compiled after a "concorso")
graduatoria ad esaurimento, ex graduatoria permamente (divided into 3 different sections. Sections 1 & 2 have run out in the great majorities of provinces and teachings...ah, wait, for musical instruments there's also a 4th section!)
graduatorie di istituto (divided into 3 different sections). First section included teachers who in GAE. Second section included people not in GAE but with a teaching certified qualification. Section 3 is everybody else without a special qualification (just with the degree required for that teaching)

"Graduatoria di merito" (GM) is regional. Graduatorie ad Esaurimento (GAE) are provincial. Graduatoria di Istituto (GI) are compiled at school level.
Hirings with permanent contracts are made 50% from GM and 50% from GAE.

Annual fixed term contracts have given by the Ministry provincial office using GAE. If GAE is finished the places are returned to the schools and they fill them using GIs.
All short term contracts are made directly by the schools using GIs.

GAE are closed (by Fioroni). You can't join them anymore. All people in GM were entitled to join them along with people with a teaching qualification taken according various ways set up by Education ministry until 2007.

Renzi's reform wants to abolish difference between "organico di diritto" e "organico di fatto" creating a new "organico dell'autonomia". Each school should set a 3 years long plan with their educational offer and asking for the teachers they need to fullfill it. So they can ask for more teachers than those they need just to fill the curricular hours but also those to create new projects. Obviously they should ask for teachers they think they have the competences needed for the projects they have in mind. That was the original spirit of the reform

At the same time Renzi promised in the first consultation documents about the education reform to close the GAE hiring everybody in them!
 
Problem is that GAE teachers could not match schools needs. There are lots of economy and civil right teachers in them, possibly too many. Too many teachers in Southern provices and not enough in Northerhn lists. There are basically no-body left to be hired from GAE to teach SPanish but lots of people waiting to be hired for German. Too few math teachers in the North, too many primary teachers in Naples. Etc

So how they will manage to match people with school needs (without forcing schools to "ask" for a music teacher even if they really wanted a maths one!) will be critical...and it will depend on future actuative decrees.

Who is protesting?
Some people from GIs, those who teach teachings without people left in GAE (Spanish, Maths in North of Italy) who have worked pretty consistently in the last few years and they want to be hired before the bottom place of the list for music teachers in Caltanisetta.

I didn't tell you something...every 3 year GAE are opened...actually not really opened to others but just to allow people in them to switch to another province..
lots of people from Southern Italy have prefered to be in GAE in North Italy. Doing so they got a permanent contract earlier. After 3 years they can ask to be moved to another province if there're availables places there. If they now hire the whole GAE...those teachers will never manage to go back to their previous home. However govenment have changed the original plan allowing special mobility on the new "organico dell'autonomia" next year (the mobility for 2015 is already under way on the old "organico di diritto").
A mess in waiting could be how to deal with new hirings being done before mobility (it's always the opposite).

Another thing...teachers are currently assigned to schools based on their points in the ranking...hence the one at the top will decide the scholl he/she prefers and so on...the last one will take the one left.
With the new powers to head teachers....hired (at provincial level this year, but they aims to create subprovincial area to manage them) teachers can apply to the school they prefer, but it will be the head-teachers who will decide the one joining the school (choosing process taking place every 3 years). So first the ministry decide how many places province X need for teaching Y ...then they hire with permanent contracts enough teachers to cover that number....then head-teachers will pick up the one they prefer within this list of hired teachers...no-one will be left without a school in the end if you are hired.

I hope my post makes sense....it's really a quite weird system which needed to be reformed. However I am not sure if even this reform will end up creating a new messing system!

[Andrea]

Piepoli for Rai: Tuscany, Marche and Umbria comfortable for PD

De Luca marginally ahead so far.

He can't call Liguria at the moment.

[Andrea]

First projections for Rai

Toscana...Rossi   47% Borghi (Lega) 18%

Veneto...Zaia 44% Moretti 28% Tosi 13%

Campania...De Luca 43% Caldoro 35%

Marche....PD and allies 39% 5 Stars 25%

Puglia..Emiliano 44% 5Stars 20% Fitto's guy 15% Poli Bortone 15%

[Andrea]

Rai gives an head to head between Toti and Paita with 5 Stars woman behind in Liguria.
31-30-24%

[Andrea]

Rai projection confirm PD trailing in Umbria. 41 to 40%

[Andrea]

Ricci extending lead over Marini in Umbria according to Rai. 41.5% to 39.8% with 21% of their sample covered.

[Andrea]

Umbria projections

La7: Marini 40.5 Ricci 40.4

Rai : Ricci 40.5 Marini 39.7

[Andrea]

Disastrous result for Moretti. Maybe we won't see her anymore now....not that many will miss her

As for the "all political career ends in tears"...Spacca basically left PD to run again in Marche to finish 4th.

More in general,anyway,the PD is also paying general controversies arising at the local level,where often Renzi's "demolishing" of the old politicans hasn't quite worked yet.

Possibly because they haven't yet enough quality potential candidates on the ground to effectively replace the old guard at local level in some areas.