Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[politicus]

Given that it is such a broad tent party, do the people elected mostly come from the leftist/SD part of it or the centrist/moderate part?

[politicus]

Today Renzi met with M5S leaders, who finally agreed to have a discussion/negotiation on electoral reform (for which they unveiled their own proposal). The meeting was broadcast on live stream. So, in short, there's still a long way to go, but both sides showed some good will and further meetings should follow. If they're serious about this, it's actually a great occasion to significantly improve the law.

This is because most of the right has flaked out of their commitment to this, isn't it?

Interestingly, Berlusconi had actually re-endorsed the compromise a few days before M5S led their availability be known (of course Berlusconi's word is never worth much, but still at least in theory the plan was back on track). What's really surprising is the M5S' sudden openness to discussion and compromise with other parties, something that was thought impossible mere weeks ago. The results of the last elections may have something to do with it though.

I can imagine some more rabid 5-star activists are none too happy, no?

Not as far as I know. The most rabid wing of the M5S base basically consist of Grillo cultists who'll support anything he supports and despise anything he despises - so I guess as long as Grillo gives his blessing to these efforts (he might very well disown them at some point) things will go on.

The whole Grillo cult is really weird, its hard to see the appeal of the guy. Who are the Grillo cultists?

[politicus]

I have understood it mainly people who are physically unable to vote for socialist party but do not want to vote Berlusconi again (at least in Sicily).

I can understand people not being psychologically able to vote for socialists, but physically? Do they get red commie spasms when they are in the voting booth every time the pencil gets near a left wing candidate?

[politicus]

For the time being at least things look weirdly like how they were 'supposed' to be after Mani pulite, before Forza Italia turned up.

Well, if you consider the PD to be the PCI/PDS' heir in any meaningful sense, then yeah.

This is probably a naive question, but is there any chance of PD purging itself of the non-SD elements to become a bit more ideologically coherent?

[politicus]

I think it's because they're sort of a Frankenstein of at least two different concepts for what an election should produce--'an election should produce an accurate representation of the votes cast' and 'an election should produce a stable governing majority for one political pole'. They just feel 'off' to people even though there's not really much objective reason to have a serious problem with them.

To a lot of us Europeans 'an election should produce an accurate representation of the votes cast' is the only real democratic principle. I don't think a bonus is worse than FPTP. I just find both methods abominable.

[politicus]

Still a run-off provides a bit of comfort - people won't be forced to choose a party they dislike for fear of their least favourite party being allowed the bonus.

(see: Greece)

Yes, the Greek system would be significantly better if 250 seats were divided in the first round and the bonus was then decided in a run-off between the top two. It would cost more, but would be worth it.

I would agree with Antonio that FPTP and bonus can be necessary in immature democracies, but the election system also influences the political culture. 

[politicus]

Although I agree with Politicus that the fair representation principle is more important in the abstract, such principle can only fully prevail in "civilized" countries like the Scandinavians, where a hung parliament doesn't result in utter chaos.

You haven't been paying attention to Sweden much this past autumn I hear.

LOL, if this is your idea of chaos, you really need to come to Italy.

Even their chaos is organized and orderly in Sweden.

[politicus]

Prodi would make a fine president, but the idea of him being the candidate of the left feels a bit odd. Italian politics makes for some strange bedfellows.

[politicus]

If you don't love Italy there's something fundamentally wrong with you.

I realize Libya, Somalia, and Eritrea all have major problems, but there's no fundamental wrong in the people from there not loving Italy.

Is that actually the case anymore? I have never met a Somali that had a grudge against Italy.

[politicus]

The standoff on electoral reform is coming to a close. Debate of the bill is about to start in the House, and Renzi has made it clear he won't accept any further amendment (which would force the bill to go back to the Senate, where the government's majority is very shaky). However, the anti-Renzi wing of the PD is up in arms against it, to an extent never seen before. Even the more moderate ones (like Bersani) seemingly seriously threaten to vote down the bill if changes aren't made. But Renzi has not flinched, and is even considering tying up the bill to a vote of confidence (effectively meaning "if the Italicum doesn't pass, this parliament goes down"). Today the PD has kicked out all the anti-Italicum PD members from the relevant parliamentary committee. Whatever happens, this will be a key test for both Renzi and the PD minority. The stakes are almost as high as they were for the Presidential election.

Are the anti-Renzi people ideologically coherent or are they fom different groups?

[politicus]

Dennis Verdini, the leader of the pro-compromise faction of Forza Italia, is leaving the party with his supporters after Berlusconi made clear he's in full opposition mode against Renzi. This ensures that, even withoutthe PD's left, Renzi will probably have a majority to pass the Senate reform.

Is Verdini going to form a new party?