WMUR/UNH: NH-01 is safe D, NH-02 is a tossup

[Tender Branson]

NH-01:

Shea-Porter (D) 48, Guinta (R) 32
Shea-Porter (D) 43, Innis (R) 32

NH-02:

Lambert (R) 34, Kuster (D) 33

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2013_fall_congraces101813.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Note that the likely voter sample in each CD is very small: Only 250 polled in each of them.

[PolitiJunkie]

NH-01:

Shea-Porter (D) 48, Guinta (R) 32
Shea-Porter (D) 43, Innis (R) 32

NH-02:

Lambert (R) 34, Kuster (D) 33

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2013_fall_congraces101813.pdf

I'm sorry but this poll is bullish*t. NH-2 is Likely D, and NH-1 is Lean D. I'm sure Shea-Porter and Kuster will both survive, but Kuster is way safer than Shea-Porter.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, the 1st poll seems way too optimistic for the Dems and the 2nd way too pessimistic.

[ElectionsGuy]

Usually I would think it would be the other way around. How is Shea-Porter leading by 13+ points in a barely Obama district while Kuster is leading by one point in a safer but still Lean Obama district?

[free my dawg]

I call junk. Guinta's bad, but he's not that bad, while Kuster'd be up by about 5.

[Vosem]

Polling in 2012 also seemed to consistently show Bass doing better than Guinta...ultimately Guinta lost by 3, Bass by 4 (about the same). I expect an 'about the same' result from these two again in 2014.

[free my dawg]

Polling in 2012 also seemed to consistently show Bass doing better than Guinta...ultimately Guinta lost by 3, Bass by 4 (about the same). I expect an 'about the same' result from these two again in 2014.

Very true. To his credit Bass isn't running this time, but ever since O'Brien dropped out the NHGOP has a chance at this seat. Going for Guinta again actually hurts their chances here - Chicago politics and statements supporting the shutdown don't do well around these parts. I'd peg the margin at about 5-7 for Shea-Porter and 7-10 for Kuster.