What if Keyes-Obama was a national election?

[RN]

If Keyes vs. Barrack Obama was for the Presidency, could Keyes take any states?  What would a map look like?

[Gabu]

If Keyes vs. Barrack Obama was for the Presidency, could Keyes take any states?  What would a map look like?

Assuming the race goes exactly as it did in Illinois, and discounting the effect of possible running mates, I'd put it at something like this:



Obama: 359 EVs, 53% PV
Keyes: 179 EVs, 46% PV

Virginia and Arizona are the two that I really had no clue on.

[RN]

I was wondering on who would be good running mates for those two. 

[FerrisBueller86]

Obama would beat Keyes with far more than 53% of the vote and far more than 359 electoral votes.  Obama beat Keyes by 43 percentage points in Illinois while Kerry beat Bush by only 10 percentage points in the state, so there were many people who voted for Bush and Obama.  Obama ran 33 percentage points ahead of Kerry.  Nationwide, Bush beat Kerry by just under 3 percentage points. 

If Kerry did 33 percentage points better than he actually did, then he would have won by 30 percentage points.

So to extrapolate this, Kerry would have won every state except Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, and Oklahoma, and Bush would have only received 24 electoral votes.

So if Keyes-Obama were a national race, Obama would have received 514 electoral votes and Keyes only 24.  In the popular vote, this would have been an even bigger landslide than 1932, 1972, and 1984.  In the Electoral College, this would have been the biggest landslide since 1984.

[phk]

[Rob]

Obama wins 384-154.

[Jake]

Obama would beat Keyes with far more than 53% of the vote and far more than 359 electoral votes.  Obama beat Keyes by 43 percentage points in Illinois while Kerry beat Bush by only 10 percentage points in the state, so there were many people who voted for Bush and Obama.  Obama ran 33 percentage points ahead of Kerry.  Nationwide, Bush beat Kerry by just under 3 percentage points. 

If Kerry did 33 percentage points better than he actually did, then he would have won by 30 percentage points.

So to extrapolate this, Kerry would have won every state except Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, and Oklahoma, and Bush would have only received 24 electoral votes.

So if Keyes-Obama were a national race, Obama would have received 514 electoral votes and Keyes only 24.  In the popular vote, this would have been an even bigger landslide than 1932, 1972, and 1984.  In the Electoral College, this would have been the biggest landslide since 1984.

Crap math like that doesn't work.  Illinois is a whole different place than the south and mountain west.  I very much doubt Keyes would lose by worse than 60-40 against Obama, and would be able to win around 150 electoral votes.

[Smash255]

Maine should be @ 60%

Obama wins 425- 113  60%-39% Pop vote. 70% range in NY, MA, RI & VT are high 70's

[Ebowed]

Maine should be @ 60%

Obama wins 425- 113  60%-39% Pop vote. 70% range in NY, MA, RI & VT are high 70's

I agree with this map the most.  Some of the Deep South may swing for Obama too, specifically Georgia, and if more blacks vote than usual, Mississippi and South Carolina.

I'm willing to bet that if there are any white Independents (a sure thing for an election like this) he'd win substantial support in every Southern state.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

West Virginia would go heavily for Obama (look at his numbers in Southern IL...)

[Jake]

West Virginia would go heavily for Obama (look at his numbers in Southern IL...)

Look at his numbers everywhere, WV would vote for Keyes, rather than a very liberal Obama.  Turnout may be below 40% though.

[nclib]

Obama would win easily, but not parallel to his victory in Illinois since Obama was an Illinoisan and Keyes wasn't.

[BobOMac2k2]

Obama would beat Keyes with far more than 53% of the vote and far more than 359 electoral votes. Obama beat Keyes by 43 percentage points in Illinois while Kerry beat Bush by only 10 percentage points in the state, so there were many people who voted for Bush and Obama. Obama ran 33 percentage points ahead of Kerry. Nationwide, Bush beat Kerry by just under 3 percentage points.

If Kerry did 33 percentage points better than he actually did, then he would have won by 30 percentage points.

So to extrapolate this, Kerry would have won every state except Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, and Oklahoma, and Bush would have only received 24 electoral votes.

So if Keyes-Obama were a national race, Obama would have received 514 electoral votes and Keyes only 24. In the popular vote, this would have been an even bigger landslide than 1932, 1972, and 1984. In the Electoral College, this would have been the biggest landslide since 1984.

Agreed, Krazy Keyes would have a hard time nationally against Obama...

They only thing Krazy Keyes could count on would be the crazy-right wing christians.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

West Virginia would go heavily for Obama (look at his numbers in Southern IL...)

Look at his numbers everywhere, WV would vote for Keyes, rather than a very liberal Obama.  Turnout may be below 40% though.

IIRC his numbers in Southern Illinois (by that I don't just mean Downstate Illnois, btw) were particulary good.
Besides people like Keyes have never played well in most of WV (he'd do well in Grant county though...) and a candidate being liberal in WV isn't a serious drawback if they talk the right language on economics and don't piss off the local party bosses.