Election 2008: Between Russ Feingold and Jeb Bush, who would win?

[Frodo]

let's fast-forward to October, 2008.  Wisconsin Senator Russell Feingold and running-mate former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner have been chosen by the Democratic Party to lead the presidential and vice-presidential ticket; while former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and his running-mate Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum have been chosen to lead the Republican ticket for the general election. 

let's assume Iraq is not much different than it is now, and the economy is making a solid though trepidatious(sp?) recovery, and the country is beginning to suffer through Bush fatigue after having lived through eight long years of the George W. Bush presidency with a Republican Congress through six of those eight years.  and yet, the threat of terrorism remains omnipresent. 

how much of the popular and electoral votes do you think each candidate would get? 

maps are highly desired here.........

[The Dowager Mod]

It wouldn't be a landslide but feingold/Warner easily

[Moooooo]

This would be a really weird race.  I guess the Bush fatigue would hurt Jeb?  Does Santourm deliver PA?  Part of me says Yes and the other part says No.  For some reason I can see Feinogld peeling one of and winning West Virginia.  Im just gonna' take a guess and say this would be the result.


274-264 Bush/Santorum

[Rob]

My best guess would be:



Feingold wins 284-254.

[RN]

The Republicans in a very very close race... or the Dems in a very very close race. 

[Smash255]

This would be a really weird race.  I guess the Bush fatigue would hurt Jeb?  Does Santourm deliver PA?  Part of me says Yes and the other part says No.  For some reason I can see Feinogld peeling one of and winning West Virginia.  Im just gonna' take a guess and say this would be the result.


274-264 Bush/Santorum

I thinK Warner would have a better chance at giving the DEMS VA than Santorum would at giving the GOP PA.  Warner is more popular in VA than Santorum is in PA, and those that dislike Santorum do so with venom, those that dislike Warner don't dislike him as much

[Smash255]

Feingold's charisma very personable type of guy (Clintonesque) along with Byush fatigue gives Feingold a solid 322-216 victory 51.5-47.5 PV

[Keystone Phil]

Feingold's charisma very personable type of guy (Clintonesque) along with Byush fatigue gives Feingold a solid 322-216 victory 51.5-47.5 PV

Democrats - Get over it. Virginia won't be a tossup/lean Dem state for another few elections and if it was to go Dem in 2008, it would not be with Feingold. Missouri is really starting to trend Republican. Feingold would not switch that.

Sorry, Smash but I think you live in the ultimate Democratic fantasy world. Democrats never lose in your opinion.

[opebo]

This is what will happen:
Feingold/Warner -  298
Bush/Santorum  -  240

[nclib]

Feingold would win due to the Bush fatigue.

[Smash255]

Feingold's charisma very personable type of guy (Clintonesque) along with Byush fatigue gives Feingold a solid 322-216 victory 51.5-47.5 PV

Democrats - Get over it. Virginia won't be a tossup/lean Dem state for another few elections and if it was to go Dem in 2008, it would not be with Feingold. Missouri is really starting to trend Republican. Feingold would not switch that.

Sorry, Smash but I think you live in the ultimate Democratic fantasy world. Democrats never lose in your opinion.

& You seem to think Santorum would beat just about every single Democrat.  I think a Feingold/Warner ticket would do quite well.  Warner is VERY popular in the state and would probably help the ticket in the more rural parts of the state while Fairfax continues to trend Dem at a very fast pace.  Missouri & Virginia were stretches, but with the right combination, along with Bush fatigue I think it could be done.  Don't underestimate the Bush fatigue factor or the charisma factor that Feingold brings.

[Keystone Phil]

Feingold's charisma very personable type of guy (Clintonesque) along with Byush fatigue gives Feingold a solid 322-216 victory 51.5-47.5 PV

Democrats - Get over it. Virginia won't be a tossup/lean Dem state for another few elections and if it was to go Dem in 2008, it would not be with Feingold. Missouri is really starting to trend Republican. Feingold would not switch that.

Sorry, Smash but I think you live in the ultimate Democratic fantasy world. Democrats never lose in your opinion.

& You seem to think Santorum would beat just about every single Democrat.  I think a Feingold/Warner ticket would do quite well.  Warner is VERY popular in the state and would probably help the ticket in the more rural parts of the state while Fairfax continues to trend Dem at a very fast pace.  Missouri & Virginia were stretches, but with the right combination, along with Bush fatigue I think it could be done.  Don't underestimate the Bush fatigue factor or the charisma factor that Feingold brings.

Santorum would beat Clinton, Gore, Feingold. Santorum would not beat Bayh and Warner (but we can be happy they won't get the nomination). Warner is popular in VA but Feingold would not be. You're prediction is a joke.

[Smash255]

Feingold's charisma very personable type of guy (Clintonesque) along with Byush fatigue gives Feingold a solid 322-216 victory 51.5-47.5 PV

Democrats - Get over it. Virginia won't be a tossup/lean Dem state for another few elections and if it was to go Dem in 2008, it would not be with Feingold. Missouri is really starting to trend Republican. Feingold would not switch that.

Sorry, Smash but I think you live in the ultimate Democratic fantasy world. Democrats never lose in your opinion.

& You seem to think Santorum would beat just about every single Democrat.  I think a Feingold/Warner ticket would do quite well.  Warner is VERY popular in the state and would probably help the ticket in the more rural parts of the state while Fairfax continues to trend Dem at a very fast pace.  Missouri & Virginia were stretches, but with the right combination, along with Bush fatigue I think it could be done.  Don't underestimate the Bush fatigue factor or the charisma factor that Feingold brings.

Santorum would beat Clinton, Gore, Feingold. Santorum would not beat Bayh and Warner (but we can be happy they won't get the nomination). Warner is popular in VA but Feingold would not be. You're prediction is a joke.

Santorum is someone who would have a tough time winning in my opinon against most candidates.  His insane individual rights positions would destroy him in a Presidential election

[RJ]

let's assume Iraq is not much different than it is now, and the economy is making a solid though trepidatious(sp?) recovery, and the country is beginning to suffer through Bush fatigue after having lived through eight long years of the George W. Bush presidency with a Republican Congress through six of those eight years. and yet, the threat of terrorism remains omnipresent.

First of all, you're asking an aweful lot as far as the country suffering from "Bush fatigue." The base of voters that had decided who they would vote for in the last election, in my opinion, was much greater than it had been in years. I know of very few that hadn't decided going into the final few weeks of the election. I hace the feeling if the GOP ran Bush 43 again in 2008, the bible belt and the number of people fooled into thinking he's good for national security might get him reelected. Not saying I like it, but it's quite possible...

The Republicans in a very very close race... or the Dems in a very very close race.

Thanks for clearing that up.

This would be a really weird race.  I guess the Bush fatigue would hurt Jeb?  Does Santourm deliver PA?  Part of me says Yes and the other part says No.  For some reason I can see Feinogld peeling one of and winning West Virginia.  Im just gonna' take a guess and say this would be the result.


274-264 Bush/Santorum

This is about as accurate a map as I can think of. I wish I knew how to post maps, otherwise I'd make one of my own. I think New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, West Virginia, and Nevada would decide this election.

[
Democrats - Get over it. Virginia won't be a tossup/lean Dem state for another few elections and if it was to go Dem in 2008, it would not be with Feingold. Missouri is really starting to trend Republican. Feingold would not switch that.

Sorry, Smash but I think you live in the ultimate Democratic fantasy world. Democrats never lose in your opinion.

If Warner were in the prez slot on the ticket, I say he'd have at least a 50-50 shot at delivering Virginia. VP? See Edwards in NC last year.

I say Missouri is also a tossup and is not neccessarily trending heavily GOP like someone said earlier. There's no question it's leaning that way, but no more so than the Southwest, in my opinion.

[Keystone Phil]

Feingold's charisma very personable type of guy (Clintonesque) along with Byush fatigue gives Feingold a solid 322-216 victory 51.5-47.5 PV

Democrats - Get over it. Virginia won't be a tossup/lean Dem state for another few elections and if it was to go Dem in 2008, it would not be with Feingold. Missouri is really starting to trend Republican. Feingold would not switch that.

Sorry, Smash but I think you live in the ultimate Democratic fantasy world. Democrats never lose in your opinion.

& You seem to think Santorum would beat just about every single Democrat.  I think a Feingold/Warner ticket would do quite well.  Warner is VERY popular in the state and would probably help the ticket in the more rural parts of the state while Fairfax continues to trend Dem at a very fast pace.  Missouri & Virginia were stretches, but with the right combination, along with Bush fatigue I think it could be done.  Don't underestimate the Bush fatigue factor or the charisma factor that Feingold brings.

Santorum would beat Clinton, Gore, Feingold. Santorum would not beat Bayh and Warner (but we can be happy they won't get the nomination). Warner is popular in VA but Feingold would not be. You're prediction is a joke.

Santorum is someone who would have a tough time winning in my opinon against most candidates.  His insane individual rights positions would destroy him in a Presidential election

But you can't provide a realistic map. Against any Democrat except Bayh or Warner, you really believe Santorum would lose states like Missouri and Florida? How about Virginia. You have yet to provide us with a scenario that has the Democrat losing. All aboard the Democratic Fantasy World express!

[Notre Dame rules!]

C'mon guys!  You still have a liberal at the top of the ticket.  It didn't fly in '04, it won't fly in '08. 

Santorum has a better chance of bringing PA to the GOP than Warner has pulling VA far enough to the left to elect Feingold. 

Give me a REALISTIC map!

[Smash255]

C'mon guys!  You still have a liberal at the top of the ticket.  It didn't fly in '04, it won't fly in '08. 

Santorum has a better chance of bringing PA to the GOP than Warner has pulling VA far enough to the left to elect Feingold. 

Give me a REALISTIC map!

Don't understimate the charasmatic factor.  Feingold brings a lot of charisma and energy to the table, something Kerry did not do.  Also Bush fatigue would ne a factor

[Frodo]

This is what will happen:
Feingold/Warner -  298
Bush/Santorum  -  240

i would agree with this map, except i think Ohio will still go Republican, following tradition.  and contrary to what some posters on the right have said, i think Missouri stands a good chance of voting Democratic, perhaps even for Feingold.  so, the more accurate showing would be:

Feingold/Warner (D): 289
Jeb Bush/Santorum (R): 249

[Frodo]

Feingold's charisma very personable type of guy (Clintonesque) along with Byush fatigue gives Feingold a solid 322-216 victory 51.5-47.5 PV

Democrats - Get over it. Virginia won't be a tossup/lean Dem state for another few elections and if it was to go Dem in 2008, it would not be with Feingold. Missouri is really starting to trend Republican. Feingold would not switch that.

Sorry, Smash but I think you live in the ultimate Democratic fantasy world. Democrats never lose in your opinion.

& You seem to think Santorum would beat just about every single Democrat.  I think a Feingold/Warner ticket would do quite well.  Warner is VERY popular in the state and would probably help the ticket in the more rural parts of the state while Fairfax continues to trend Dem at a very fast pace.  Missouri & Virginia were stretches, but with the right combination, along with Bush fatigue I think it could be done.  Don't underestimate the Bush fatigue factor or the charisma factor that Feingold brings.

Santorum would beat Clinton, Gore, Feingold. Santorum would not beat Bayh and Warner (but we can be happy they won't get the nomination). Warner is popular in VA but Feingold would not be. You're prediction is a joke.

Santorum is someone who would have a tough time winning in my opinon against most candidates.  His insane individual rights positions would destroy him in a Presidential election

But you can't provide a realistic map. Against any Democrat except Bayh or Warner, you really believe Santorum would lose states like Missouri and Florida? How about Virginia. You have yet to provide us with a scenario that has the Democrat losing. All aboard the Democratic Fantasy World express!

C'mon guys!  You still have a liberal at the top of the ticket.  It didn't fly in '04, it won't fly in '08. 

Santorum has a better chance of bringing PA to the GOP than Warner has pulling VA far enough to the left to elect Feingold. 

Give me a REALISTIC map!

whatever.  both of you are such partisan hacks who would never be satisfied with any scenario that doesn't involve the Republican winning.  obviously, the term 'realistic' to you has only one reference -when a Republican is winning an election. 

it is eminently possible for a populist liberal like Russ Feingold to win in 2008 -Kerry and Gore both came close.  with someone as personable as he is, you underestimate him at your peril.  still, continue what you are doing -i hope it encourages such complacency within the GOP that by the time November 2008 comes around, you'd never know what hit you.   

[Notre Dame rules!]

Frodo,

That's simply not true.  I can easily see Gov Bredesen winning the White House, or at the very least, having a very good shot at it.   However, if believing that a flaming liberal stands little to no chance of winning the WH makes me a political hack, well, I guess I'm guilty as charged.


Regarding Bush fatigue, I'm not totally convinced that is a fait accompli.  If, and I do mean if, democratization begins to take hold around the Middle East, and the economy continues to be robust, why would there necessarily be Bush fatigue.  Dubya and Jeb are two very different sorts of people. While they are both conservative, George is far more of an internationalist--as we have seen during his Presidency.  Jeb, on the other hand, is somewhat like Clinton, in that he is much more of a policy wonk.  

With the Intl agenda already set by Dubya, Jeb could concentrate on the mechanics of solving Social Security (since it probably won't get solved this year--due to Democrat obstructionism), health care, and other domestic concerns.

[Keystone Phil]

Feingold's charisma very personable type of guy (Clintonesque) along with Byush fatigue gives Feingold a solid 322-216 victory 51.5-47.5 PV

Democrats - Get over it. Virginia won't be a tossup/lean Dem state for another few elections and if it was to go Dem in 2008, it would not be with Feingold. Missouri is really starting to trend Republican. Feingold would not switch that.

Sorry, Smash but I think you live in the ultimate Democratic fantasy world. Democrats never lose in your opinion.

& You seem to think Santorum would beat just about every single Democrat.  I think a Feingold/Warner ticket would do quite well.  Warner is VERY popular in the state and would probably help the ticket in the more rural parts of the state while Fairfax continues to trend Dem at a very fast pace.  Missouri & Virginia were stretches, but with the right combination, along with Bush fatigue I think it could be done.  Don't underestimate the Bush fatigue factor or the charisma factor that Feingold brings.

Santorum would beat Clinton, Gore, Feingold. Santorum would not beat Bayh and Warner (but we can be happy they won't get the nomination). Warner is popular in VA but Feingold would not be. You're prediction is a joke.

Santorum is someone who would have a tough time winning in my opinon against most candidates.  His insane individual rights positions would destroy him in a Presidential election

But you can't provide a realistic map. Against any Democrat except Bayh or Warner, you really believe Santorum would lose states like Missouri and Florida? How about Virginia. You have yet to provide us with a scenario that has the Democrat losing. All aboard the Democratic Fantasy World express!

C'mon guys!  You still have a liberal at the top of the ticket.  It didn't fly in '04, it won't fly in '08. 

Santorum has a better chance of bringing PA to the GOP than Warner has pulling VA far enough to the left to elect Feingold. 

Give me a REALISTIC map!

whatever.  both of you are such partisan hacks who would never be satisfied with any scenario that doesn't involve the Republican winning.  obviously, the term 'realistic' to you has only one reference -when a Republican is winning an election. 

it is eminently possible for a populist liberal like Russ Feingold to win in 2008 -Kerry and Gore both came close.  with someone as personable as he is, you underestimate him at your peril.  still, continue what you are doing -i hope it encourages such complacency within the GOP that by the time November 2008 comes around, you'd never know what hit you.   

Partisan hacks? When has Smash ever given a scenario where a Democrat loses? Also, how many times have I said a Bayh-Santorum race would mean a Bayh win? Doesn't that count as a Republican loss? You really don't understand what you're saying.

[Hitchabrut]

Bush + PA

Feingold + NM, NV, IA

[Smash255]

Feingold's charisma very personable type of guy (Clintonesque) along with Byush fatigue gives Feingold a solid 322-216 victory 51.5-47.5 PV

Democrats - Get over it. Virginia won't be a tossup/lean Dem state for another few elections and if it was to go Dem in 2008, it would not be with Feingold. Missouri is really starting to trend Republican. Feingold would not switch that.

Sorry, Smash but I think you live in the ultimate Democratic fantasy world. Democrats never lose in your opinion.

& You seem to think Santorum would beat just about every single Democrat.  I think a Feingold/Warner ticket would do quite well.  Warner is VERY popular in the state and would probably help the ticket in the more rural parts of the state while Fairfax continues to trend Dem at a very fast pace.  Missouri & Virginia were stretches, but with the right combination, along with Bush fatigue I think it could be done.  Don't underestimate the Bush fatigue factor or the charisma factor that Feingold brings.

Santorum would beat Clinton, Gore, Feingold. Santorum would not beat Bayh and Warner (but we can be happy they won't get the nomination). Warner is popular in VA but Feingold would not be. You're prediction is a joke.

Santorum is someone who would have a tough time winning in my opinon against most candidates.  His insane individual rights positions would destroy him in a Presidential election

But you can't provide a realistic map. Against any Democrat except Bayh or Warner, you really believe Santorum would lose states like Missouri and Florida? How about Virginia. You have yet to provide us with a scenario that has the Democrat losing. All aboard the Democratic Fantasy World express!

C'mon guys!  You still have a liberal at the top of the ticket.  It didn't fly in '04, it won't fly in '08. 

Santorum has a better chance of bringing PA to the GOP than Warner has pulling VA far enough to the left to elect Feingold. 

Give me a REALISTIC map!

whatever.  both of you are such partisan hacks who would never be satisfied with any scenario that doesn't involve the Republican winning.  obviously, the term 'realistic' to you has only one reference -when a Republican is winning an election. 

it is eminently possible for a populist liberal like Russ Feingold to win in 2008 -Kerry and Gore both came close.  with someone as personable as he is, you underestimate him at your peril.  still, continue what you are doing -i hope it encourages such complacency within the GOP that by the time November 2008 comes around, you'd never know what hit you.   

Partisan hacks? When has Smash ever given a scenario where a Democrat loses? Also, how many times have I said a Bayh-Santorum race would mean a Bayh win? Doesn't that count as a Republican loss? You really don't understand what you're saying.

I have said a bunch of times McCain would win if he was the GOP nominee, he just won't get the  nomination.  The GOP is moving further and further to the right and I think that will hurt them in 08.  Bush fatigue if Jeb is the nominee, Santorum's idiiotic individual rights comments if he is the nominee, Frist being more boring than even Gore is if he runs.  I admitted Virginia was a bit of a stretch, however I think Feingold would do quite well if he gets the nomination.  The GOP already played the liberal card really hard with Kerry, they can't exactly play it that much more with Feingold.  Feingold is a much better speaker, and has a lot more charisma than Kerry

[Alcon]

Those of you who say that Bush fatigue would hurt Jeb also said that it would hurt W in 2004. Didn't.

Who said that? No one is fatigued (I'd hope) after 4 years, and with 8 years of Clinton inbetween Bush I and Bush II, it's hardly one continous line of Bushes. The whole "don't re-elect the son!" thing did nothing. But having 3 of the past 4 Presidents be Bushes? That may be a bit excessive to some. Not too many, but enough to flip a close election.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Smash,

It's true that the GOP never passed up an opportunity to remind eveyone of how liberal Kerry was.  However, Kerry's 'war hero' status helped to moderate him in the eyes of many, especially at CBS, NBC, and ABC. 

I can't  begin to count how many times a GOP stategist would start  exposing Kerry's record, only to be cut off with how Kerry was a 'war hero.'     

Unless Feingold can find some pictures of himself in uniform, I don't think that he will be able to dodge the red smear.