NC 2016 Gubernatorial Discussion Thread

[RogueBeaver]

McCrory tiptoeing towards Medexpansion?

[Miles]

^ That's been the rumor, and I personally hunch is that this had something to do with the workings of it.

[Miles]

McCrory and Cooper have about the same fundraising:

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Bring it on!

[Miles]

PPP has McCrory's approval slightly underwater at 41/45 but he still leads Cooper 44/39.

[Miles]

Meeting Street Research, a pollster I've never heard of (but from what I understand is conservative-leaning), has a poll out from late last month. McCrory, 46/40, and the Assembly, 46/42, have higher approvals here than they do in most polls.

Still, like most polls, they have McCrory up a slight 47/44 on Cooper. For some reason, they tested Hagan against him, too; she trails 50/42.

[Miles]

Linda Coleman will be running again for LG against Dan Forest.

Forest won by 6,300 votes in 2012, due in big part to McCrory's coattails. Coleman had heavy support from the state employees unions last time. Still, its unlikely she'll have the field to herself this time.

[Free Bird]

McCrory and Cooper have about the same fundraising:

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Bring it on!

Not as epic as Checkpoint vs. The Criminal

[Miles]

There have been rumors of this since last year, but State Sen. Buck Newton, a far-right social conservative, is considering running for AG.

Another Republican considering is State Sen. Tamara Barringer, of suburban Raleigh, would be more palatable to swingy voters.

On the Democratic side, State Sen. Josh Stein is running to replace his old boss, Cooper; look for Democrats to clear the field for him.

[IceSpear]

Interestingly, SUSA shows Cooper with a 38-28 approval rating...among Republicans.

http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/GOP-poll-PR-xtabs-3-31-15.pdf

[Miles]

Elon showing tossup:

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[Miles]

Here's an update on the non-Gubernatorial statewide races.

My ratings:

Lt. Gov: Lean R

This was the closest race in 2012. Dan Forest won by about 6,500 votes. The Democrat he beat, Linda Colemen, is running again. Forest has been somewhat controversial on education issues, but overall not obnoxiously so.

That said, I think Forest is still better positioned. For one thing, he's got incumbency. Secondly, his 2012 was very fractured and even went to a runoff. Thats not gonna happen this time. Third, there's doubt that Coleman can clear the primary field on her side.

However, this time, Forest won't have the type of upballot coattails from McCrory that pulled him over the line in 2012.

AG: Tilt D

Democrats have something of a head start here. State Sen. Josh Stein has been running for this, at least in some capacity, ever since it was clear Cooper was running for Governor. Stein has represented Wake County for almost 10 years. He's one of the better fundraisers that state Dems have and should easily get the nomination.

There aren't any announced Republicans, but State Sen. Buck Newton is most likely. Newton is an adamant social conservative, hailing from Wilson County.

Auditor/Treasurer: Likely D

Both Cowell and Wood are running again. They've been pretty non-controversial and even have decent working relationships with the Assembly leaders. They should both be fine.

SoS: Likely D

Elaine Marshall, despite her 2010 Senate loss, rebounded in 2012 to win reelection by 8%. She has the most seniority of any state official and is generally well respected on both sides.

Insurance Commissioner: Lean D

Populist-leaning Democrat Wayne Goodwin is running again. He had the closest result of any winning statewide Democrat in 2012 (3%). I'll have this Lean D until we have an idea of who the Republicans are recruiting.

Commissioner of Labor: Lean R

The Elevator Queen, Cherie Berry, is running again. Thanks to her smiling picture in every state elevator, she has pretty good name recognition and people seem to like her. Former Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker (D) was initially looking at a Gov. run, but may drop down to challenge her. Berry actually carried Wake County in 2012, so Meeker would be able to deny her that. Berry's 2008 win was also very close (she won by less than 2%), though she won by close to 7% in 2012.

Lean R for now, but should be more competitive if Meeker actually pulls the trigger.

Commissioner of Labor: Likely R

Steve Troxler (R) hasn't announced his plans yet, but seems likely to run for a 4th term. His job is less political than Berry's, and as such seems to be less polarizing. Either way, Troxler can run ahead of most other Republicans in both the Triangle and Triad, so I doubt he ends up losing if he runs.

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Tilt D

June Atikinson (D) is retiring after three terms. Atkinson was actually the Democrat that won by the widest margin in 2012 (8.5%). Democrats are probably favored as 1) they (will likely) have a high-tier candidate in Charlotte-area State Rep. Tricia Cotham and 2) the Republican brand in NC, at least when it comes to public education, is pretty bad.

[Miles]

McCrory will veto a bill from the legislature that allows magistrates to opt-out of licensing same-sex marriages.

There's another bill, though, which establishes a 72-hour waiting period for abortions. My guess is that he'll let it become law without his signature.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

He also thankfully vetoed an ag-gag law

[Miles]

State Sen. Buck Newton (R) is running for AG, confirming earlier rumors.

If he ends up the nominee, I'd keep the race at least Tilt D, maybe even Lean D. Newton is too conservative IMO, to hold serve with swingy suburban voters.

[Pandaguineapig]

State Sen. Buck Newton (R) is running for AG, confirming earlier rumors.

If he ends up the nominee, I'd keep the race at least Tilt D, maybe even Lean D. Newton is too conservative IMO, to hold serve with swingy suburban voters.

Do you know of any other Republicans that may run for AG?

[Miles]

^ State Sen. Tamara Barringer, from southern Wake County, and Forsyth County DA Jim O'Neill have expressed some interest. Democrats would rather face Newton over either of them, but they've both been pretty quiet for months.

[Pandaguineapig]

^ State Sen. Tamara Barringer, from southern Wake County, and Forsyth County DA Jim O'Neill have expressed some interest. Democrats would rather face Newton over either of them, but they've both been pretty quiet for months.

Cool, thanks

[Kushahontas]

McCrory will veto a bill from the legislature that allows magistrates to opt-out of licensing same-sex marriages.

There's another bill, though, which establishes a 72-hour waiting period for abortions. My guess is that he'll let it become law without his signature.

Senate overrides, 32-16. House votes on Wednesday. 3/5ths needed.

[Miles]

McCrory is signing the 72-hour waiting period abortion bill.

'Another blatant violation of his campaign promise not to.

[Miles]

Heather Grant (R), who ran for Senate last year, is reportedly runnning for Insurance Commissioner. Grant got just 5% in the Senate primary, so she doesn't exactly have field-clearing status.

[Türkisblau]

Just wanted to thank you for your updates, Miles. 2016 will be an interesting year in NC.

[Miles]

^ Thanks!

[Miles]

State Sen. Josh Stein is officially running for AG.

Again, I'd say this is a Lean D race. Stein is well-known in Raleigh - as long as he can at least perform as a generic D in most of the state plus overperform in the Triangle area, that should be enough.

[libertpaulian]

The gubernatorial election will hinge on how the presidential race goes.

If the presidential election is at least Lean R, McCrory is safe.  If it's a tossup or starts to Lean D, McCrory should start to get nervous.

[Miles]

In what's become a running meme, as Labor Commissioner, there is a smiling picture of Cherie Berry in every one of the state's elevators.

Well, from this new this study, those elevator pictures may have really, eh, lifted her up on the campaign trail.

In any case, it looks like the "elevator effect" tangibly helped Berry over the years. Combine her smile with the her catchy name, and it makes for some good, free PR.

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Berry won by a relatively comfortable 6.5% in 2012 but was nearly knocked off in 2008. The elevator effect could have really made the difference there!