Summary of filings in statewide races (offices in no particular order):
GovernorBoth McCrory (R) and Cooper (D) will have primaries, although both will have no problem securing their nominations. Cooper has a challenge from Durham area attorney and Easley-area appointee Ken Spaulding (D). Running against McCrory is ex-Rep. Robert Brawley of the Lake Norman area. In the legislature, Brawley was a generally a thorn in the side of the GOP leadership. Overall, this will probably be the most expensive Gubernatorial race in the country this cycle. Cooper and McCrory are both relatively high-caliber candidates who can each claim crossover support.
TOSSUPLieutenant GovernorThis will be quite a race to watch, given the implications for 2020. LG Dan Forest (R), a solid conservative but with some crossover appeal nonetheless, is widely considered to have the right of first passage to succeed McCrory in 2020. Democrats would love to preclude that by taking him out of contention with a defeat this cycle.
First, though, Democrats have a competitive primary of their own. Their 2012 nominee,
who lost by just 6K votes, Linda Coleman (D) is running again. Coleman represented Wake County in the legislature and served under the Perdue Administration - she had heavy support from teachers and public employee’s unions. The other major candidate is Buncombe County Commissioner Holly Jones (D). Jones is probably closer to the party’s more liberal wing. Jones has helped to crowdsource and recruit legislative candidates, so that could pay off for her in terms of building a network. Two other Democrats, Ronald Newton and Robert Wilson, likely won’t pick up major support.
Forest has the incumbency advantage this time, but won’t be able to rely on massive McCrory coattails as he did last time. Still, I’m calling this
LEAN R for now.
Secretary of StateElaine Marshall, probably the “godmother” of NC Democrats, is popular. Despite her 2010 Senate loss, she nicely rebounded with an 8% win to her current office.
Two Some Dude Republicans are running against her. A.J. Daoud (R) looks more likely to get the nomination, as
he ran last time but didn’t get far. The other, Michael LaPaglia (R), I can’t find much about.
LIKELY DAuditorUp until the last day of filing, it looked like Beth Wood (D) would go unopposed. State Elections investigator and former FBI agent Chuck Stuber (R) filed to challenge her, however. Wood has cultivated good relations with the Assembly Republicans and will be much better funded.
LIKELY DAttorney GeneralIt’s been an open secret for at least a year that State Sen. Josh Stein (D) of Wake County would run to succeed his old boss Cooper. Stein has been a vocal and visible critic of the Republicans leadership and is a strong fundraiser. He’ll face a speed bump in perennial candidate Marcus Williams (D), but will otherwise coast to the nomination.
On the other side, Republicans have a primary between Forsyth County DA Jim O’Neill and State Sen. Buck Newton of Wilson County. The race should be competitive, but Republicans would probably rather O’Neill, as Newton is known as a polarizing social conservative.
I’d say
TILT D, given that Stein has had a decent head start and faces a much clearer path to his party’s nomination.
Superintendent of Public InstructionThough widely expected to retire, Dr. June Atkinson (D) will run for a 4th term. In the primary, she’ll breeze past Durham-area principal Henry Pankey (D).
Three Republican candidates are running: Pediatrician Rosemary Stein of Alamance County, J. Welsey Sills of Harnett County, and Mary Johnson of Forsyth County. Johnson is the only one to have previously held office, as he sits on the Forsyth County Board of Education. Its unclear who the frontrunner is and the race could well break down on regional lines.
LIKELY D, as Atkinson was the best-performing state Democrat in 2012 and will be well-funded.
Commissioner of LaborThe “Elevator Queen” Cherie Berry (R) will be running again and is unopposed for the nomination. Democrats have a strong recruit in ex-Raleigh mayor Charles Meeker (D). Meeker faces token primary opposition in Mazie Ferguson (D). While Berry is looking have a more competitive race this time than in 2012, I’m still saying
TILT R because of the crossover support she’s gotten in urban areas.
Commissioner of AgricultureCommissioner Steve Troxler (R) is running for a 4th term. Troxler faces token primary opposition in Andy Stevens (R) – from what I can tell, Stevens was a former Libertarian. Somewhat interestingly, both are from Guilford County.
On the other side, Walter Smith (D), will be unopposed for his nomination. As such, the general will be a rematch from 2012, when Troxler beat Smith
by almost 7%. Given that, I’m starting the race at between
LEAN/LIKELY R.
Commissioner of Insurance Populist incumbent Wayne Goodwin (D), who hails from the sandhills, is unopposed for the nomination, as he goes for a third term. Republicans have a three-way primary with the most likely nominee being Mike Causey. Causey held Goodwin to
just a 4% win in 2012, below what some other similar statewide Democrats got. Still, before that, Causey will have to win his primary against veteran Joe McLaughlin (R) and Ron Pierce (R).
I’ll say this is between
TILT/LEAN D, as Goodwin is a decent campaigner and should be able to get the votes he needs out of eastern NC.
TreasurerThis race is the one that Republicans are most likely to flip. Ex-State Rep. Dale Folwell (R) will be the nominee. Folwell has his legislative connections and network for his
(unsuccessful) 2012 statewide run to fall back on.
Democrats have a primary between Dan Blue III of Durham, son of the current Senate Minority Leader, and Ron Elmer, a Cary-based attorney. Blue should be favored.
As both the Democrats are untested, I’m giving Folwell the benefit of the doubt and saying
TILT R.
