NC 2016 Gubernatorial Discussion Thread

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^

nobody is safe!

D:

[Miles]

^ Well, this early into it, I don't wanna completely write off any races.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

jfc how many statewide elected officials does one state need?

[Miles]

A decent read with bite-sized descriptions of 21 legislative races to watch.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

^ Well, this early into it, I don't wanna completely write off any races.

I already endosed Koster & Greg for MO & IN

[Miles]

I mentioned this in the Senate thread, but the AFL-CIO endorsed the candidates you'd expect them to in the statewide races.

This probably impacts the LG primary the most, where this was a good get for Linda Coleman. Given her past support from labor, it may not be a huge surprise, but its encouraging to see that they're sticking with her over Holly Jones, IMO.

[Miles]

Cooper outraised McCrory, again, last quarter:

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North Carolina for Bernie just went full idiot and made the following endorsements:

- Ken Spaulding for Governor
- Chris Rey for Senate
- Marcus Williams for AG
- No for the Bond Referendum

I'm embarrassed.

[Oak Hills]

North Carolina for Bernie just went full idiot and made the following endorsements:

- Ken Spaulding for Governor
- Chris Rey for Senate
- Marcus Williams for AG
- No for the Bond Referendum

I'm embarrassed.

Can you give more background? I'm not familiar with any of those people.

[Adam Griffin]

Maybe it doesn't have much relevance here, but I just completed another one of my statewide county-level partisan maps. Here is North Carolina for 2014! Reversed colors; deal with it, etc etc.

Full-size image

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks, VERY interesting and useful. So, for exqample, Republicans dominate on local level in most of the far  far west mountains, most "textile counties", and in South-East, which is most "Deep South" part of the state. Some other interesting conclusions can be made too. BIG thanks!

P.S. I would be very interested in similar maps and data for about 10-15 other states, but i understand which big work it takes to make even one.

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Very nice map, Adam!

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Our final major party candidate slates:

Governor: Pat McCrory (R) vs. Roy Cooper (D)
Lieutenant Governor: Dan Forest (R) vs. Linda Coleman (D)
Secretary of State: Michael LaPaglia (R) vs. Elaine Marshall (D)
Attorney General: Buck Newton (R) vs. Josh Stein (D)
Commissioner of Agriculture: Steve Troxler (R) vs. Walter Smith (D)
Commissioner of Insurance: Mike Causey (R) vs. Wayne Goodwin (D)
Commissioner of Labor: Cherie Berry (R) vs. Charles Meeker (D)
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Mark Johnson (R) vs. June Atkinson (D)
State Treasurer: Dale Folwell (R) vs. Dan Blue III (D)
State Auditor: Charles Stuber (R) vs. Beth Wood (D)

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And my early ratings for each CoS race (Safe-Likely-Lean-Tilt):

Governor - Tilt D
Lieutenant Governor - Lean R
Secretary of State - Likely D
Attorney General - Lean D
Commissioner of Agriculture - Likely R
Commissioner of Insurance - Lean D
Commissioner of Labor - Likely R
Superintendent of Public Education - Likely D
State Treasurer - Lean D
State Auditor - Likely D

It's kind of fun when nothing is safe.

[Adam Griffin]

^ Thanks, VERY interesting and useful. So, for exqample, Republicans dominate on local level in most of the far  far west mountains, most "textile counties", and in South-East, which is most "Deep South" part of the state. Some other interesting conclusions can be made too. BIG thanks!

P.S. I would be very interested in similar maps and data for about 10-15 other states, but i understand which big work it takes to make even one.

You'll want to check this thread out.

[Miles]

Cooper's first ad is very good.

[Miles]

Cooper easily outraises McCrory:

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[Miles]

For the AG race, Stein is running circles around Newton. This is closer to Lean D than Tossup, IMO.

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[Ebsy]

Now this is not universal, but it seems like Democrats are doing very, very well across the board with fundraising all over the country.

[smoltchanov]

Now this is not universal, but it seems like Democrats are doing very, very well across the board with fundraising all over the country.

Yeah, but good fundraising doesn't directly translates into number of votes received..

[windjammer]

For the AG race, Stein is running circles around Newton. This is closer to Lean D than Tossup, IMO.

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If Clinton carries NC, which is more likely than not, is it possible a dem sweep in NC?

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For the AG race, Stein is running circles around Newton. This is closer to Lean D than Tossup, IMO.

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If Clinton carries NC, which is more likely than not, is it possible a dem sweep in NC?

For all ten statewide races? Doubt it.

[Miles]

^ Troxler would still be hard to beat.

When Obama carried the state, Berry still (barely) hung on, but Meeker is stronger than the opponents she's had the last few times.

[Kingpoleon]

For the AG race, Stein is running circles around Newton. This is closer to Lean D than Tossup, IMO.

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If Clinton carries NC, which is more likely than not, is it possible a dem sweep in NC?

Labor Commissioner Berry is essentially safe. Troxler would be very tough to beat, too.

[Miles]

^ Er, no I've never rated Berry as safe. She's favored but she'll probably win by a closer margin than last time.