Kerry Regains Lead As Events Roil Poll Data

[ShapeShifter]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ibd/20040406/bs_ibd_ibd/200446feature&cid=1471&ncid=1926

 Kerry leads Bush 45% to 43% among registered voters in the latest IBD/TIPP poll, a statistical dead heat. Left wing independent Ralph Nader gets 5%. Another 8% are undecided. In the second week of March, Bush led 45% to 40%.

The IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index hit a new low in April, falling 1.4 points to 49.5. It's the first time the index has been under 50 since Bush took office.

[Lunar]

Kerry leads Bush 45% to 43% among registered voters in the latest IBD/TIPP poll, a statistical dead heat. Left wing independent Ralph Nader gets 5%. Another 8% are undecided. In the second week of March, Bush led 45% to 40%.

45+43+5+8= 101%

Can these polls show results like that if they're all rounded up, say from .7 or so?

[The Vorlon]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ibd/20040406/bs_ibd_ibd/200446feature&cid=1471&ncid=1926

 Kerry leads Bush 45% to 43% among registered voters in the latest IBD/TIPP poll, a statistical dead heat. Left wing independent Ralph Nader gets 5%. Another 8% are undecided. In the second week of March, Bush led 45% to 40%.

The IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index hit a new low in April, falling 1.4 points to 49.5. It's the first time the index has been under 50 since Bush took office.

IDB/TIPP is a very solid firm.  

Take this poll at face value.

It's "registered voters" so tack a couple onto Bush's total for "likely voter" number, but hey -2 and 0 are the same number, so it really matters not.

Beyond the straight "horserace" question, which is well within the margin or error,  their "numbers behind the numbers" (Presidential Leadership index, etc...) are very much worth a close look.

Good news for Kerry, Bad news for Bush

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ibd/20040406/bs_ibd_ibd/200446feature&cid=1471&ncid=1926

 Kerry leads Bush 45% to 43% among registered voters in the latest IBD/TIPP poll, a statistical dead heat. Left wing independent Ralph Nader gets 5%. Another 8% are undecided. In the second week of March, Bush led 45% to 40%.

The IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index hit a new low in April, falling 1.4 points to 49.5. It's the first time the index has been under 50 since Bush took office.

IDB/TIPP is a very solid firm.  

Take this poll at face value.

It's "registered voters" so tack a couple onto Bush's total for "likely voter" number, but hey -2 and 0 are the same number, so it really matters not.

Beyond the straight "horserace" question, which is well within the margin or error,  their "numbers behind the numbers" (Presidential Leadership index, etc...) are very much worth a close look.

Good news for Kerry, Bad news for Bush

People seem to think Bush is going to go on to some huge victory cause Kerry isn't perfect.  Wrong, cause you seem to forget how many people are already ABB, and how his approval rating never seems to get above the low 50s no matter whats going on