UT-Sen 2016: Establishment targeting Lee

[Zioneer]

Unique circumstances here because the Romney name is golden in Utah. But usually hard to mobilize an establishment primary for fairly self-explanatory reasons, as I noted in the Amash thread a few weeks ago.

To be fair, Utah is a unique state. And again, the Romney name is golden.

[Keystone Phil]

Primaries: "Hey! It's ok when we do it!" - the establishment (of both parties)

Not that I'm saying they necessarily shouldn't (or should) do it but the hypocrisy should be noted.

[RogueBeaver]

Primaries: "Hey! It's ok when we do it!" - the establishment (of both parties)

Not that I'm saying they necessarily shouldn't (or should) do it but the hypocrisy should be noted.

Hear, hear.

[Zioneer]

You know, you non-Utahns should be grateful. You don't have to sit through months of tedious, boring, awful arguments about caucus/convention vs primary systems. I entered one of those debates over Facebook (on a Dem group who were angry over being dragged into what is essentially an internal Republican issue concerning Mike Lee given to the voters of Utah), and it was like pulling teeth. I wanted to jump out a window after exiting that argument.

[pbrower2a]

You know, you non-Utahns should be grateful. You don't have to sit through months of tedious, boring, awful arguments about caucus/convention vs primary systems. I entered one of those debates over Facebook (on a Dem group who were angry over being dragged into what is essentially an internal Republican issue concerning Mike Lee given to the voters of Utah), and it was like pulling teeth. I wanted to jump out a window after exiting that argument.

It sounds like it. "Leave politics to the experts because the common man has no idea of what is best for him" is how things are done... in Iran. It's all an internal Party issue and not for you.

That is the danger of a dominant-party system in which that Party has no internal democracy. Democrats need look out for the danger themselves.

I just wish that Bob Bennett could have switched Parties or run as an independent.

[sg0508]

It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.  While it's highly unlikely, if the GOP has a nasty split in its primary, could that possibly leave the door open for a strong, moderate democrat to make a go at the seat?

[Zioneer]

You know, you non-Utahns should be grateful. You don't have to sit through months of tedious, boring, awful arguments about caucus/convention vs primary systems. I entered one of those debates over Facebook (on a Dem group who were angry over being dragged into what is essentially an internal Republican issue concerning Mike Lee given to the voters of Utah), and it was like pulling teeth. I wanted to jump out a window after exiting that argument.

It sounds like it. "Leave politics to the experts because the common man has no idea of what is best for him" is how things are done... in Iran. It's all an internal Party issue and not for you.

That is the danger of a dominant-party system in which that Party has no internal democracy. Democrats need look out for the danger themselves.

I just wish that Bob Bennett could have switched Parties or run as an independent.

Oh, the best part is that the pro-caucus guys try to pretend that they're fighting for the little guy; they say that caucuses allow a candidate with less money and name recognition to win, and they claim that only those with a lot of money and name recognition will win the primaries.

They also say that there should be a basic level of participation in the process to choose candidates, so they're trying to have their cake and eat it, essentially.

The two issues I have with the Count My Vote movement (who are the guys behind a soon-to-come ballot initiative to enact a primary only system and are generally moderate) are that they're pushing this on both parties as if the Utah Dems don't matter (we don't, but it's the principle of the thing), and that they're disdainful towards any attempts to keep the caucus system by reforming it. The Caucus system seems to have some benefits, and it's not right that the Utah Dems get pulled into an internal GOP affair.

As for Bennett, yeah, I would've been fine with him pulling a Murkowski.

It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.  While it's highly unlikely, if the GOP has a nasty split in its primary, could that possibly leave the door open for a strong, moderate democrat to make a go at the seat?

Literally the only Democrat that could have a chance is Jim Matheson. Possibly Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams, but probably not (McAdams has stated his distaste for Congress at least once, and he's not nearly as well known. He's well-liked, though).

[IceSpear]

Does Matheson want to be Senator or Governor?

[RedSLC]

Does Matheson want to be Senator or Governor?

I think it's been rumored, but Governor seems far more likely.

[Zioneer]

Does Matheson want to be Senator or Governor?

He hasn't really had a chance; when he first started in Congress, Matheson wasn't that well known (though he had his dad's legacy to boost his statewide name recognition), and the popular three-term Governor Mike Leavitt was in office, and popular Orrin Hatch/Bob Bennett were Senators. Then after a brief intermission with Olene Walker as Governor, the fantastically popular Jon Huntsman became Guv in 2004. There wasn't really a good chance to challenge Huntsman, (dude got 77% of the vote in 2008). In 2006, there might have been a chance against Orrin Hatch, but Pete Ashdown (the well-meaning telecommunications executive who was the Dem candidate then) ran instead and got demolished by Orrin Hatch's name recognition.

2010 wasn't a good year for either the special gubernatorial election, or the Senate election, and Matheson got a primary challenge then anyway. 2012 Senate/Gubernatorial might have been the first statewide election in which Matheson had a decent chance at winning, since PPP polled him as being neck-to-neck with both Hatch and Herbert in 2011. Still, with Romney on the ballot in 2012 (and a strong Congressional opponent besides), it seems Matheson was scared off of a statewide race.

In 2016, Romney (or Huntsman) won't be on the ballot, the incumbent Governor will likely retire or be challenged from the right by the Speaker of the Utah House, and Matheson will have entrenched himself in his new district (assuming he defeats Mia Love in 2014). If Matheson decides to go for Senate, there may be the problem of Josh Romney challenging Mike Lee, but I feel like Matheson would rather go for Governor than Senate. But if he wants to do either, 2016 is the time.

[sg0508]

Taking an educated guess, Matheson would likely have a stronger shot at governor as those races tend to be far more bi-partisan than national, senatorial races and there seems to be more prestige in being governor than senator anyhow.

[Zioneer]

Taking an educated guess, Matheson would likely have a stronger shot at governor as those races tend to be far more bi-partisan than national, senatorial races and there seems to be more prestige in being governor than senator anyhow.

Yeah, plus his dad was governor when Matheson was a young adult, so he probably has fairly positive memories of that. But 2016 or later is definitely the best time for him to run for governor. It's an open secret that Utah House Speaker Becky Lockhart wants to be governor, and will either primary Gary Herbert, or force him into retirement. And she's more right-wing then he is, which will give an opening to Matheson.

[RogueBeaver]

If Matheson ran for governor, do you think Romney or Wright would run for the open seat or run against Lee instead? I guess that depends on Lee's popularity and whether it's a primary or convention, among other things.

[pbrower2a]

You know, you non-Utahns should be grateful. You don't have to sit through months of tedious, boring, awful arguments about caucus/convention vs primary systems. I entered one of those debates over Facebook (on a Dem group who were angry over being dragged into what is essentially an internal Republican issue concerning Mike Lee given to the voters of Utah), and it was like pulling teeth. I wanted to jump out a window after exiting that argument.

It sounds like it. "Leave politics to the experts because the common man has no idea of what is best for him" is how things are done... in Iran. It's all an internal Party issue and not for you.

That is the danger of a dominant-party system in which that Party has no internal democracy. Democrats need look out for the danger themselves.

I just wish that Bob Bennett could have switched Parties or run as an independent.

Oh, the best part is that the pro-caucus guys try to pretend that they're fighting for the little guy; they say that caucuses allow a candidate with less money and name recognition to win, and they claim that only those with a lot of money and name recognition will win the primaries.

They also say that there should be a basic level of participation in the process to choose candidates, so they're trying to have their cake and eat it, essentially.

A basic level for democracy is that the common has the legitimate perception that he helped choose those who represent him. With the caucus that operates in some dark recess of power that relies upon a few insiders to make the decision offered to the masses to ratify... in view of the weakness of the Utah Democratic Party, the people of Utah got little choice. 

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The 'benefit' is that the people with the most passionate views on politics get the biggest say. Of course no political system that so works is a democracy. Government serves moderates or it is horrid.

Democrats being pulled into an 'internal Republican affair'? If it is a question of preserving some democracy within the only political party that matters in most of the state, then they had better take the plunge. 

[Zioneer]

If Matheson ran for governor, do you think Romney or Wright would run for the open seat or run against Lee instead? I guess that depends on Lee's popularity and whether it's a primary or convention, among other things.

I think Romney (or Wright) would run for the open seat; without Matheson it'll be easy pickings. Mia Love might run for a third time in that case, but I don't know how successful that would be. I think all three of them would rather go for the easy win rather than the slugfest that would be a challenge to Mike Lee. If Lee is damaged enough though, one of them might try, especially if it's a primary and they can shut down Lee's supporters.

A basic level for democracy is that the common has the legitimate perception that he helped choose those who represent him. With the caucus that operates in some dark recess of power that relies upon a few insiders to make the decision offered to the masses to ratify... in view of the weakness of the Utah Democratic Party, the people of Utah got little choice. 

Sure, but the thing is, why not just target the Utah Republican Party? Why make a legally binding (which may actually be unconstitutional according to Utah's election laws, which say that state political parties have the right to decide their own electoral system), and run roughshod on a party that hasn't elected any extremists? Or at least any extremists that have a voice?

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Good point; I'm not exactly fond of the caucus system myself (as someone who doesn't have the ability to travel to the caucuses and therefore can't be a delegate or choose a delegate), and it kind of is insular, insider-based electioneering. I do think it's cheaper, which directly affects Utah Dems (as we don't exactly have that much money to spare), but otherwise, the caucus system needs serious reform at least and replacement at best.

And sure Utah Democrats don't really matter, but it's not really fair to be run roughshod over when we haven't elected any of the extremists, when we elect moderates and mild progressives, and when we have nothing to do with these radical Republicans. While I'm not opposed to primaries (I actually favor them, to be honest), the way that Count My Vote has gone about things is just rude.

[Bacon King]

Hatch has declined to endorse Lee.

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Entirely predictable, of course, because Lee declined to endorse Hatch in his last primary.

There was no one more "establishment" then Bob Bennett in 2010 and he got royally dumped.  I tend to believe that a primary would favor Lee more than a convention would.  Lee isn't running for President; he's running for re-election in the most one-party state in the Union.

The thing about Bennett that wouldn't apply to these potential "establishment" opponents is that Bennett had a relatively moderate voting record Lee ran against, whereas Romney and Wright can both basically define themselves during their candidacies.

The two issues I have with the Count My Vote movement (who are the guys behind a soon-to-come ballot initiative to enact a primary only system and are generally moderate) are that they're pushing this on both parties as if the Utah Dems don't matter (we don't, but it's the principle of the thing), and that they're disdainful towards any attempts to keep the caucus system by reforming it. The Caucus system seems to have some benefits, and it's not right that the Utah Dems get pulled into an internal GOP affair.

I'm not familiar at all with Utah's law here but in most states the primary system is at least partially governed by statute so it'd be pretty much impossible to change one party's system without changing the other as well.

[Miles]

BUMP

They've enacted a bill which phases out conventions.

[Zioneer]

BUMP

They've enacted a bill which phases out conventions.

Sort of; it gives a not-particularly-difficult second option to those who don't want to go through the convention. It'll really only affect the Republicans, since Democrats don't tend to have enough support to even consider doing the petition to ballot move. I'm not sure if it'll moderate the conventions/primaries like Count My Vote hopes it will.

As a side note, I was elected precinct chair and delegate at my local precinct's Democratic caucus meeting tonight.

[RedSLC]

As a side note, I was elected precinct chair and delegate at my local precinct's Democratic caucus meeting tonight.

Really? Awesome, dude! You should tell us about the meeting after it ends.

[Zioneer]

As a side note, I was elected precinct chair and delegate at my local precinct's Democratic caucus meeting tonight.

Really? Awesome, dude! You should tell us about the meeting after it ends.

Actually, I posted after it ended.

Anyway, it was fun; about 30 people showed up to the caucus, including my former bishop (!!!) and his wife, and an elderly couple who I had no idea were Democrats. I mentioned being interested in being a delegate before the meeting started, and so they nominated and seconded me, with no opposition with anyone else. They didn't tell me that 1-delegate precincts force the delegate to become precinct chair though. And they didn't tell me about the at-large delegates before I was elected.

Still, I don't think they expect me to do much, since West Jordan is Republican as heck, but I'll do my best.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Does Matheson want to be Senator or Governor?

For selfish reasons (knocking Lee out of the senate, +1 Dem) I want Matheson to run for Senate.

I think it is tough to say which one he has a better shot at. Open Gov seat or unpopular extremist senator that could be vulnerable.

[Simfan34]

Oh but Hunstman was just so damn wondefull you see.


Called it.

Hey, I never said he was wonderful, I just said that people liked him, even with being a guy in Obama's administration. Now though, maybe not. People in Utah like Romney almost equally, so Huntsman might not be so popular...

I was actually thinking of Simfan's outright adoration of Huntsman during the primaries.

Of course people liked him in Utah at one point, he did get like 80% of the vote or something didn't he?

Would that not still be possible?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Oh but Hunstman was just so damn wondefull you see.


Called it.

Hey, I never said he was wonderful, I just said that people liked him, even with being a guy in Obama's administration. Now though, maybe not. People in Utah like Romney almost equally, so Huntsman might not be so popular...

I was actually thinking of Simfan's outright adoration of Huntsman during the primaries.

Of course people liked him in Utah at one point, he did get like 80% of the vote or something didn't he?

Would that not still be possible?

Not after the revelations about him last year.

[Simfan34]

[Zioneer]

Unique circumstances here because the Romney name is golden in Utah. But usually hard to mobilize an establishment primary for fairly self-explanatory reasons, as I noted in the Amash thread a few weeks ago.

The Romneys as a family are rockstars beyond the simple "establishment" label (at least for Utahns), so I'd be willing to bet that they'd be able to mobilize enough voters for a convention or primary fight against Lee. Plus, Josh Romney isn't the one that cost Utahns millions last year. Lee is.