NJ: LoBiondo, Runyan get serious challengers

[windjammer]

Not sure where this idea that Van Drew has to resign his State Senate seat to run is coming from. Anyway, Van Drew flirts with running for higher office then doesn't.

And I think we'll be talking about NJ 2 next year for other reasons, too.

Which reasons?

[Keystone Phil]

Others in this thread have mentioned it and I just addressed it.

[Mr.Phips]

Runyan's seat is tough for Dems without Cherry Hill.  LoBiondo is likely safe if he runs again, but Dems would likely be favored in an open seat race in the 2nd, which is a much stronger Democratic heritage than the 3rd, which has almost none.

LoBiondo's seat has trended more Democratic, but it wasn't always that way.  It was the seat that was once held by the conservative Republican Rep. Charles Sandman (R-NJ).  Sandman was elected in 1970 and in 1973 he successfully challenged incumbent 1st term Gov. William Cahill in the GOP primary.  He won, but in the general election, he was absolutely creamed by Democrat Brendan Byrne.  Then, in 1974, Democrat William Hughes, a somewhat conservative Democrat who ran a close race against Sandman in 1970, beat Sandman convincingly in the Watergate year.  At the time Hughes retired it was assumed that the seat would switch parties, and it did, as LoBiondo won.  Hughes was a guy who won repeatedly, despite the GOP carrying his district in Presidential contests. 

Yes, but Hughes' long tenure here shows that this district could easily become as safe for a Dem incumbent as it was for LoBiondo all those years.

[Mr.Phips]

Is Assad running again?

He's already confirmed to be in.

There is now a debt clock on his website, so maybe he is pandering to the Tea Party.

Did anyone think he was going to run to the left of a liberal GOP Congressman in a Republican primary?

By the way, Hughes, Jr. is running as a fiscal conservative and supposedly was hesitant when asked about Obamacare in a radio interview. People can stop thinking this is some Likely Dem district any time now.

In an open seat race, this would be at least Lean Dem.  This isn't like the 3rd district, where reflexively heavily GOP Ocean county makes up nearly half of the population.

[Mr.Phips]

Is Assad running again?

He's already confirmed to be in.

I

There is now a debt clock on his website, so maybe he is pandering to the Tea Party.

Did anyone think he was going to run to the left of a liberal GOP Congressman in a Republican primary?

By the way, Hughes, Jr. is running as a fiscal conservative and supposedly was hesitant when asked about Obamacare in a radio interview. People can stop thinking this is some Likely Dem district any time now.

In an open seat race, this would be at least Lean Dem.  This isn't like the 3rd district, where reflexively heavily GOP Ocean county makes up nearly half of the population.

They could not even defeat Runyan in the Burlington County portion of the seat.

The Dem party in that county is far weaker than they should be.  Even John Kerry won that county solidly.  There is no reason why Democrats shouldn't easily hold Diane Allen's state Senate seat that even went for Corzine by double digits in 2009.

[Mr.Phips]

The Dem party in that county is far weaker than they should be.  Even John Kerry won that county solidly.  There is no reason why Democrats shouldn't easily hold Diane Allen's state Senate seat that even went for Corzine by double digits in 2009.

Not the current seat. Due to population collapse in and around Camden, Mount Laurel and Moorestown had to be added to the 7th district. It went for Corzine by about 8 points.

Any seat that went for Corzine should be pretty safe for Dems.  He lost by nearly five points in what is normally a safe Dem state.

[publicunofficial]

Fresh off his narrow re-election, State Sen. Bob Gordon is heavily considering running against Scott Garrett in NJ-05.

[hurricanehink]

http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/politics/van-drew-won-t-run-for-congress-setting-up-contest/article_24026d92-87b8-11e3-bd38-0019bb2963f4.html - Van Drew confirmed a few days ago he's not running for LoBiondo's seat, so it's gonna be Bill Hughs, Jr. According to the article, Hughes has raised $135,000, vs. LoBiondo having over $1 million on hand.

[Keystone Phil]

Hughes has a primary challenger from a former (lower level) Obama White House aide. Funny enough, he's the friend of a friend of mine.