Gubernatorial Predictions

[morgieb]

2013:

New Jersey: Safe R. While it was going to be very hard to take down Christie in the first place, he is romping home and Buono's campaign has been awful. Him cracking 60% seemed like a pipe dream 12 months ago. Now it's basically a formality.
Virginia: Likely D. What should've been a close race has turned pretty ugly for Team Red. McAuffile, despite being the sort of candidate that inspires no-one, has had a solid lead for the last few months, and it's only getting bigger. Cuccinelli needs a miracle now, and probably a pretty ing big one, too.

2014:

Alabama: No reason for Bentley to be in trouble. He hasn't even got a clear opponent in the general. Safe R.
Alaska: Parnell has average approvals, but he has a fairly robust lead against the field and in this state shouldn't lose. Safe R.
Arizona: Hard to tell. Neither field seem settled. Not much polling here either. We do know the Republicans have a nasty primary, whereas the Democrats have a clear candidate. For now though, it's Leans R.
Arkansas: Very tight race. Both candidates seem similar in strength. The partisan lean gives Hutchison the edge right now, but his polling lead is pretty narrow. This race (along with its Senate race) will give us a fair idea whether Arkansas is willing to elect local Democrats still. Tilts R.
California: Safe D. Although the Republicans have a strong candidate, he doesn't have a base or traction. And y'know, it's California, which is rapidly turning into the Democratic version of Texas.
Colorado: Leans D. Hickenlooper's approvals are OK, but his voting intention numbers say he is in huge trouble. However, the Republicans tend to overpoll here, they lack a really strong candidate, and his approvals only slumped due to his and the legislature policy achievements, which will probably recide over time.
Connecticut: Toss-up. Yes Connecticut is very blue. However, Malloy is not popular at all, due to a poor economy, and Connecticut has been more than willing to elect Republicans for Governor. Democrats may be better served without Malloy.
Florida: Toss-up. On paper, Scott should be dead meat. But I still think he has a good chance. Crist could decide not to run, and there are many flaws about Crist anyway that could sink him in a primary or a general. It's not like Scott can't fundraise or spend.
Georgia: Likely R. It's hard to hard to know whether the PPP poll was an outlier or not, but his position has been all over the shop. The good thing is that the Dems lack a real candidate here, but if more polling comes saying his approvals are poor, then he'll in some trouble.
Hawaii: Likely D. Abercrombie sucks, but Hawaii is super-blue. Also it is unclear he'll compete against much of a candidate.
Idaho: Safe R. Yeah...
Illinois: Toss-up. No doubt Quinn is in deep sh**t, but if Daley and Madigan don't want to challenge him in a primary, then who will? It's not impossible that the partisan lean of the state could save him, particularly given the Republican candidate isn't 100% clear.
Iowa: Safe R. That call may be bold, but Branstad is popular and he lacks an obvious candidate to run against.
Kansas: Likely R. A lot of what I said about Hawaii applies here. But it's worth remembering that Seliebus won here in 2002, so people calling it a slam dunk by default are probably exaggerating the redness of Kansas.
Maine: Toss-up. On paper, LePage should be toast, but he's running in a 3-way race with two left-wing candidates. This race depends on how well Cutler does, if he gets over 25% then it's game on. Whether he can do so depends on how badly people are dissatisfied with LePage. But Michaud is the right candidate to beat LePage, so maybe even if Cutler does well he can still win.
Maryland: Likely D. Too hard to call at this stage, as neither field looks clear, but in this state the Democrat has the clear advantage. The only reason this isn't Safe D is because I don't like calling open races this early, particularly at the state level.
Massachusetts: Likely D. Right now Coakley looks in a great position, but remember 2010? While she'd have to be a ing retard to not learn the lessons of 2010, she is not running against a token candidate, and it could still happen again.
Michigan: Toss-up. It looks like Synder's lull is fading away, but with Schauer still little-known, he isn't exactly safe. If Schauer finds himself in the right circumstances (i.e. Synder making another major political error like right-to-work), then it can turn the nature of the race upside down.
Minnesota: Safe D. Dayton is a pretty good position, with nice approvals and a big lead against the rest of the field. No real risk of him losing IMO.
Nebraska: Likely R. A lot of what I wrote about Maryland applies here. While the Democrats have a couple of OK-ish candidates, they're fighting an uphill battle in Nebraska.
Nevada: Likely R. Sandoval is running in an increasingly blue state, but he has governed pretty solidly, and has very strong approvals. He also is running against a party which lacks an obvious candidate.
New Hampshire: Likely D. I'm not gonna call someone running in New Hampshire truly safe, due to its elasticity, but Hassan's position looks pretty damn good and she shouldn't lose.
New Mexico: Likely R. See what I wrote about Nevada, although Martinez is running against a stronger candidate and is in a bluer state.
New York: Safe D. Cuomo's win could be Bush 1998-esque.
Ohio: Leans R. Kasich looked dead meat in 2011, but now he's looking good for re-election. The Democrats do have a decent candidate against him, and his poll numbers have been flaky at times, but he has the edge at this stage.
Oklahoma: Safe R. No reason for Fallin to be in trouble.
Oregon: Safe D. No reason for Kitzhaber to be in trouble.
Pennsylvania: Leans D (pickup). It's rare that I call a pick-up this early against an incumbent, but it's very hard to see Corbett winning. He has in trouble for a long time. The only thing which might save the Republicans is if he stands down, which is possible.
Rhode Island: Likely D. Chafee has quit the race, meaning it should be a straightforward D/R race this time around. While Republicans can win in Rhode Island governor races, whoever the Democrats nominate starts off with the advantage assuming the primary between Taveras and Raimondo doesn't become too heated.
South Carolina: Leans R. Shaheen came close to beating Haley in 2010, and he is a pretty strong candidate. Still, Haley has not made much major missteps in governance, and as the incumbent it is her race to lose.
South Dakota: Safe R. If the Dems couldn't find a strong candidate for an open seat, how cna they take down an incumbent?
Tennessee: Safe R. No reason for Haslam to be in trouble.
Texas: Likely R. Davis is an attractive candidate on paper, but it's hard to see her actually winning in Texas, even in an open seat. It's still too early for Democrats to really compete here.
Vermont: Safe D. No reason for Shumlin to be in trouble.
Wisconsin: Leans R. Although the Dems lack a real candidate here, Walker isn't the most popular and "may" be involved in scandals. This race is in a slight holding pattern.
Wyoming: Safe R. Yeah....

[Grumpier Than Thou]

2013:

Virginia: Likely D. Virginia doesn't want the Cooch.
New Jersey: Safe R. Even more duh.

2014:

Alabama: Safe R, lol
Alaska: Safe R.
Arizona: I'll say Toss-up, slight lean R.
Arkansas: Toss-up, slight lean R.
California: Safe D, lol
Colorado: Likely D. No reason to believe the GOP will mount a legitimate challenge.
Connecticut: Lean D. It's still Connecticut, despite Malloy's low approvals.
Florida: Toss-up, lean D. If Crist gets into the race, I'd say Likely D.
Georgia: Safe R.
Hawaii: Safe D.
Idaho: Safe R, lol
Illinois: Lean D. Quinn is definitely in trouble, but I highly doubt there will be a Republican that could get elected statewide.
Iowa: Likely R.
Kansas: Toss-up, slight lean R. That's right, I said it. Brownback's in trouble.
Maine: Lean D. I wouldn't count Cutler out, and I wouldn't bet against LePage finishing third. If anything, this race is Safe Not R.
Maryland: Safe D. Let's not kid ourselves here.
Massachusetts: Safe D. Again, let's not kid ourselves.
Michigan: Lean D. This one is really tough. I don't want to see Snyder get re-elected, but the Michigan Democratic Party is not looking very formidable at the moment.
Minnesota: Safe D.
Nebraska: Safe R.
Nevada: Lean R. Sandoval is well liked and is doing surprisingly well as Governor, so beating him will be a challenge.
New Hampshire: Safe D. Come on.
New Mexico: Lean R. I agree with the OP that this race and Nevada are very comparable. Still, Martinez is well liked.
New York: Safe D, lol
Ohio: Toss-up, slight lean R. Kasich is going to face an uphill battle throughout next year.
Oklahoma: Safe R, lol
Oregon: Safe D, lol
Pennsylvania: Likely D. Corbett is NOT well liked, and if Schwartz is the nominee, she'll throttle him.
Rhode Island: Likely D. It's still Rhode Island.
South Carolina: Toss-up, lean D() Gotta wait for a reputable poll to come out for this one.
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Likely R. It breaks my heart to say that, as I really do think Wendy Davis is one of the best politicians in the entire country, but I can't stray from reality here.
Vermont: Safe D.
Wisconsin: Likely R, unfortunately. The Wisconsin Democratic Party is a mess.
Wyoming: Safe R, lol

[Keystone Phil]

...Schwartz will not "throttle" anyone.

[tmthforu94]

Brownback's opponent is not a moderate - he's been one of the most liberal legislators in Kansas and is known for his support for abortion and gay marriage. Democrats will love him, but no one else will.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

...Schwartz will not "throttle" anyone.

Wrong word choice, but she'll still beat him pretty easily.

[free my dawg]

2013:

Virginia: Likely D. Would be Safe either way if any of the parties nominated a good candidate.
New Jersey: Safe R. Buono is horrific.

2014:

Alabama: Safe R.
Alaska: Safe R.
Arizona: Lean R
Arkansas: Tilts R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Leans D.
Connecticut: Toss-up. CT's quite friendly to moderate Repubs.
Florida: Tilts D. Crist is as much of an opportunist as Scott.
Georgia: Likely R. It's Deal. Something crazy could happen.
Hawaii: Likely D. Abercrombie.
Idaho: Safe R.
Illinois: Toss-up. Quinn's not popular at all.
Iowa: Likely R.
Kansas: Likely R. Paul Davis is a liberal, guys. Once people find it out they'll flock back to Brownback.
Maine: Lean D. LePage has Akined himself out of here.
Maryland: Safe D.
Massachusetts: Likely D. Let's hope Coakley learned.
Michigan: Toss-up. MI Dems are blowing it.
Minnesota: Safe D.
Nebraska: Safe R.
Nevada: Safe R. Sandoval is moderate enough to win.
New Hampshire: Safe D. The NHGOP is a joke.
New Mexico: Safe R again.
New York: Safe D
Ohio: Tilts R. Fitzy still has a way to go
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D,
Pennsylvania: Likely D. Awful discipline by Corbett so far. Not LePage/Akin/Mourdock bad, but pretty bad.
Rhode Island: Likely D.
South Carolina: Tilts R. It's South Carolina.
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Likely R. At least we have a candidate with infrastructure.
Vermont: Safe D.
Wisconsin: Likely R. lolwisconsindems
Wyoming: Safe R

[NewYorkExpress]

Virginia- Safe D Democratic Pickup
New Jersey Safe R

2014

Alabama- Safe R
Alaska- Likely R (I doubt a close Senate race helps Parnell, but he really has no good opposition)
Arizona- Lean R
Arkansas- Lean R  (Like the Senate race, the GOP (Hutchinson) is favored. GOP Pickup
California- Safe D, whether or not Brown runs again
Colorado- Likely D with anyone but Tancredo as the GOP nominee. Lean D with Tancredo.
Connecticut- Tossup
Florida- Lean D, With or without Crist. (Maybe Nan rich does have what it takes and we don't know... )Democratic Pickup
Georgia- Lean R (even with all the corruption Deal should hang on in this pink state)
Hawaii- Likely D (Abercrombie really isn't that popular, but the GOP has been in a horrific state since the ascendency of President Obama)
Idaho- Safe R
Illinois- Tossup
Iowa- Lean R
Kansas- Safe R
Maine- Lean D/I (All I know is Lepage isn't going to win) Democratic or Independent pickup
Maryland- Safe D
Massachusetts- Lean D
Michigan- Tossup
Minnesota- Safe D
Nebraska- Safe R
Nevada- Safe R
New Hampshire- Likely D
New Mexico- Likely R ( Martinez is as popular as Sandoval, but she'll face a stronger candidate)
New York- Safe D
Ohio- Tossup
Oklahoma- Safe R
Oregon- Safe D
Pennsylvania- Lean D ( This rating could move back towards tossup if Corbett is successfully primaried or he retires)Democratic Pickup
Rhode Island- Tossup
South Carolina- Likely R
South Dakota- Safe R
Tennessee- Safe R
Texas- Lean R
Vermont- Safe D
Wisconsin- Likely R
Wyoming- Safe R

[IceSpear]

2013:

NJ: Safe R
VA: Likely D pickup*

2014:

AL: Safe R
AK: Safe R
AZ: Lean R
AR: Toss Up (I actually think Dems have a better chance here than the Senate race. Unlike Pryor, Ross won't have Obamacare weighing him down, plus Cotton seems stronger than Hutchinson)
CA: Safe D
CO: Lean D
CT: Lean D
FL: Lean D pickup*
GA: Lean R
HI: Likely D
ID: Safe R
IL: Toss Up (Quinn is so toxic the partisan lean might not even save him)
IA: Likely R
KS: Toss Up (See Illinois)
ME: Lean D pickup*
MD: Safe D
MA: Likely D
MI: Toss Up
MN: Likely D
NE: Safe R
NV: Safe R
NH: Safe D
NM: Likely R
NY: Safe D
OH: Toss Up
OK: Safe R
OR: Safe D
PA: Lean D pickup*
RI: Likely D
SC: Lean R
SD: Safe R
TN: Safe R
TX: Safe R (It's Texas in a mid term year against a decent opponent. But I respect Davis for trying.)
VT: Safe D
WI: Lean R
WY: Safe R

[morgieb]

Virginia- Safe D Democratic Pickup
New Jersey Safe R

2014

Alabama- Safe R
Alaska- Likely R (I doubt a close Senate race helps Parnell, but he really has no good opposition)
Arizona- Lean R
Arkansas- Lean R  (Like the Senate race, the GOP (Hutchinson) is favored. GOP Pickup
California- Safe D, whether or not Brown runs again
Colorado- Likely D with anyone but Tancredo as the GOP nominee. Lean D with Tancredo.
Connecticut- Tossup
Florida- Lean D, With or without Crist. (Maybe Nan rich does have what it takes and we don't know... )Democratic Pickup
Georgia- Lean R (even with all the corruption Deal should hang on in this pink state)
Hawaii- Likely D (Abercrombie really isn't that popular, but the GOP has been in a horrific state since the ascendency of President Obama)
Idaho- Safe R
Illinois- Tossup
Iowa- Lean R
Kansas- Safe R
Maine- Lean D/I (All I know is Lepage isn't going to win) Democratic or Independent pickup
Maryland- Safe D
Massachusetts- Lean D
Michigan- Tossup
Minnesota- Safe D
Nebraska- Safe R
Nevada- Safe R
New Hampshire- Likely D
New Mexico- Likely R ( Martinez is as popular as Sandoval, but she'll face a stronger candidate)
New York- Safe D
Ohio- Tossup
Oklahoma- Safe R
Oregon- Safe D
Pennsylvania- Lean D ( This rating could move back towards tossup if Corbett is successfully primaried or he retires)Democratic Pickup
Rhode Island- Tossup
South Carolina- Likely R
South Dakota- Safe R
Tennessee- Safe R
Texas- Lean R
Vermont- Safe D
Wisconsin- Likely R
Wyoming- Safe R

You reckon Tancredo has a better chance against Hickenlooper than the rest of the field? Really?

[ElectionsGuy]

2013 Gubernatorial Predictions

2014 Gubernatorial Predictions





Might want to move Brownback >50% and Likely R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AR Tilt GOP
CA solid D
CO tilt D
CT Foley can upset
FL LD
IL LD
KS Davis can upset here
ME cutler or Michud
MI Synder in an upset
OH Fitzgerald in upset
Pa solid D
RI solid D
WI D upset

Probably 5 GOP inc loses this yr.

[publicunofficial]

2013:

Virginia: Likely D.
New Jersey: Safe R.

2014:

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Safe R
Arizona: Lean R
Arkansas: Toss-Up/Tilt R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Lean D
Connecticut: Lean D
Florida: Lean D now that Crist is in
Georgia: Lean R
Hawaii: Likely D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Toss-Up
Iowa: Safe R
Kansas: Likely R
Maine: Lean D
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Likely D
Michigan: Toss-Up (Schauer needs to step it up)
Minnesota: Safe D
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Safe R
New Hampshire: Safe D
New Mexico: Likely R
New York: Safe D
Ohio: Lean R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Lean D.
Rhode Island: Likely D
South Carolina: Lean R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Likely R
Vermont: Safe D
Wisconsin: Likely R
Wyoming: Safe R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wi, CT, FL, MI, Oh and CO can go either way.

[pbrower2a]

Kansas -- Strong R if Sam Brownback chooses not to run for re-election.