Dynamic US foreign relations

[angus]

Today Max Fisher of the WaPo published a sort of visual report card for US diplomacy, comparing 2012 to 2013.  Here's the map:



They cited the new president's overtures in Iran, economic ties for Burma, and a number of issues involving israel including the U.S.-supplied missile defense technology that helped protect Israeli civilians.

The relationship with Russia--not very warm to begin with--falls apart over Syria, among other things.  The "marriage of convenience" with the House of Saud is no longer convenient, apparently.  Finally, Obama announces cutting military aid to Egypt, so the US-Egypt relationship becomes strained.  Altogether, it is striking that under our nation's First Muslim President, our ties with the Middle East are becoming frayed.    

The minor changes are things like the NSA spying, the Snowden Affair, the Turks frustration at the lack of US involvement in Syria, etc.

[angus]

I'm going to add my own option.  I think the US Government shutdown may have caused a bunch of other minor negative changes.  Because of the shutdown, Obama was absent from the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.  It had been hyped as an opportunity for us to renew  attention to Asia as a counterbalance to China's increased economic and military clout, but that message was undermined when our congress was acting like children.  Obama cancelled his trip to Indonesia and three other countries.  His absence was perhaps felt most by Indonesians who consider him one of their own after he spent part of his childhood growing up in their capital.  He sends Kerry instead.  Really?  That's a pretty picture:



There may also be effects on the Chinese investors who put money here.  The emerging Chinese state is a one-party power, so it is very unlikely that the politicians or investors there will be able to comprehend such things as partisan rancor so acute that it leads to shutdown.  Blogs are talking about things like "the ugly side of Washington" and "Shutdown??  What about all the money we invested there?"

Just thinking out loud here, but I wonder if China might be minor negative instead of minor positive.  And I've seen interviews with European Central Bankmeisters who make similar comments.

[angus]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/10/22/majority-say-shutdown-did-serious-damage-to-u-s-image/

I don't know how this will ultimately translate into foreign relations.  I do think that we have had enough of these last-minute, three-month deals for foreign investors to think twice before investing here. 

[dead0man]

I understand the ups and downs for all of them except:
the PRC
Brazil/Bolivia
Afghanistan

[angus]

Well, I don't agree with it, but Fisher's claim with respect to the PRC is that the perceptions of good have outweighed...  Oh, hell, I guess I should quote the whole paragraph.

"Though set back by revelations of extensive Chinese cyber-espionage against the United States, the relationship saw more upticks after the sour years of Obama's first term. New Chinese leader Xi Jinping has put a happy face on diplomacy with Washington, meeting with Obama for a California summit in June. North Korea's provocations this spring provoked rare outrage from Beijing, drawing it closer to the United States. Obama continues to be a big star on Chinese social media."

You can find the rest of the story here.  Scroll down for Afghan, Brazil, and Bolivia.

I guess my biggest beef is that it focus so much on the Snowden affair and spying and some superfluous like Obamania.  All these are trendy.  Maybe that was the goal.  Maybe he really meant it just to be a progress report of a snapshot in time.  Longer term, though, how we conduct ourselves in business I think matters more, and the lack of good economic stewardship, not only with the government shutdown, but also with the threat to do so every three months over the debt ceiling, is more problematic.

[GMantis]

It's surprising that relations with Egypt have worsened so much, considering the rather mild reaction of the US towards the coup. I suppose they wanted to be treated the same way Mubarak was. Incidentally, the US not condemning the coup too strongly is one of the reasons for the worsening relations with Turkey.
Incidentally, it's questionable whether the US relations with France worsened, considering how they humiliated themselves trying to catch Snowden...

[angus]

Good point about Egypt, but my impression is that our television news did make big ado about the coup. 

As for France, for the reasons you state it might be status quo, but I think that they might have a harder time taking us seriously after the shutdown.  So I guess I'd color it the light shade of red, but not for the reasons that this article says.

I do agree with leaving Syria grey for status quo, but for the most part I'd expect more "minor negative" than status quo, especially in the Pacific Rim.  I'd also be tempted to put India in pink as well, owing to divergence in the bilateral engagement in recent months.  (Before Singh's visit with Obama about a month ago, a number of American businesses took out advertisements calling for fair trade with India and criticized the "buy local" rules in India, as well as caps on foreign investment, inconsistent treatment of foreign patents, and insufficient protection of intellectual property.  In fact, investment treaty negotiators have not met since last year.) 

So that's China, India, and Indonesia (the world's first, second, and fourth most populous nations) which should be in the "minor negative" column, imho.  Add that to a bunch of skittish developed-world investors who are looking at our dysfunctional congress, and I think that overall the map paints a rosier scenario than actually exists.  I guess that's really the point of my diatribe.