Why did Jimmy Carter win New York State in the 1976 Presidential Election?
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  Why did Jimmy Carter win New York State in the 1976 Presidential Election?
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Author Topic: Why did Jimmy Carter win New York State in the 1976 Presidential Election?  (Read 8148 times)
hopper
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« on: October 26, 2013, 07:32:24 PM »

I was shocked to see Carter win New York State in 1976. I thought Ford would have been a better fit for the state than Carter at that time. Did Carter win the state because of the black vote in NYC or because of Ford's pardon of Nixon or a combonation of both?
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barfbag
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2013, 08:14:43 PM »

I was shocked to see Carter win New York State in 1976. I thought Ford would have been a better fit for the state than Carter at that time. Did Carter win the state because of the black vote in NYC or because of Ford's pardon of Nixon or a combonation of both?

New York was blue then just not as much as it is now. It was light blue though. Ford would've been a better fit for the state, but that's not how New Yorkers vote.
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DarthNader
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2013, 08:23:34 PM »



But yeah, it's a Democratic-leaning state. Any reasonably close election and the Democrats were likely to win NY (Humphrey did in '68).
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TDAS04
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2013, 08:33:34 PM »

New York City has long been Democratic enough to prevent New York State from being too Republican.  Also, Carter came quite close in New Jersey, and somewhat close in Connecticut, so it's not that surprising that Carter carried New York State.  Carter even came close in 1980.
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barfbag
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2013, 08:54:56 PM »



But yeah, it's a Democratic-leaning state. Any reasonably close election and the Democrats were likely to win NY (Humphrey did in '68).


There you have it. The media!
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sg0508
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2013, 10:11:50 PM »

Long Island went stronger for Carter than it normally did for democratic candidates.  That really hurt Ford.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2013, 10:30:35 PM »

NYC was a very different place in the 1970s. There was population loss, rampant crime, deteriorating infrastructure, a seedy element and they were in terrible financial trouble. When Ford refused to bail New York out of its financial woes it pissed off a lot of New Yorkers who saw it as the city's only hope. So I'm sure that cost Ford a lot of votes there in 1976.

Also, Ford and Carter appealed to both liberals and conservatives depending on which issues you cared about so a lot of states were up for grabs in that election. It was kind of like the 1960 election in that any state really could have gone either way. I wish we had elections like that today.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2013, 10:32:51 PM »

Long Island went stronger for Carter than it normally did for democratic candidates.  That really hurt Ford.

Somewhat true, but Carter lost Nassau and Suffolk Counties 55-45 ish.  

Carter only carried 7 of 62 counties in NY State. He carried New York County (Manhattan), Kings County (Brooklyn), Queens County (NYC), Bronx County (NYC), Albany County (Albany), Erie County (Buffalo), and Sullivan County, a vacation county in the Catskills with a large Jewish population that were heavily Democratic.  In 1982, Erie County went Republcan for Governor; if it had done so in 1976, Carter would have lost NY State, and the election.
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sg0508
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2013, 06:36:43 PM »

Nassau/Suffolk went about 53-47%.  Usually, through 1988, the split was closer to the GOP getting near 60%.

This is just an educated guess, but the choice of Dole couldn't have helped Ford in NY.  Rockefeller may have made a difference, although most people don't vote for VP.  Of course, had Rockefeller been the running mate, Ford may have sacrificed states such as OK, SD, etc.  It's tough to tell.  We can only speculate.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2013, 09:34:39 PM »

It was already becoming more Democrat by that time, as evidenced by Kennedy and Humphrey carrying it.  That's the best explanation I can think of.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2013, 11:07:50 PM »

Over performance on Long Island is what gave New York to Carter.  He nearly won both counties there when Republicans back then used to get around 60% in both.  That made up for his horrendous upstate performance where he did nearly as badly as McGovern.  He even lost the Albany area Congressional district that actually flipped to him in 1980 and only barely went for Nixon in 1972.
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jfern
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« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2013, 11:45:26 PM »

Over performance on Long Island is what gave New York to Carter.  He nearly won both counties there when Republicans back then used to get around 60% in both.  That made up for his horrendous upstate performance where he did nearly as badly as McGovern.  He even lost the Albany area Congressional district that actually flipped to him in 1980 and only barely went for Nixon in 1972.

He even lost Tompkins both times, even though it's voted Democratic ever since. Yep, it's one of those Ford / Mondale counties.
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sg0508
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« Reply #12 on: December 08, 2013, 09:52:43 PM »

Over performance on Long Island is what gave New York to Carter.  He nearly won both counties there when Republicans back then used to get around 60% in both.  That made up for his horrendous upstate performance where he did nearly as badly as McGovern.  He even lost the Albany area Congressional district that actually flipped to him in 1980 and only barely went for Nixon in 1972.
Correct.
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Dancing with Myself
tb75
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« Reply #13 on: December 24, 2013, 01:36:13 AM »

NYC/Long Island pretty much helped Carter out, Ford dominated most of the state, Carter just won there and Buffalo. Ford won every other one besides those two and two other counties. Ford won the majority of counties.

From what I remember hearing on the Election Night Coverage I have, they had voting machine problems in different parts of the state, and Ford's people went to court over it. I guess they failed because I never heard anything else about it.

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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2015, 07:20:07 PM »

Over performance on Long Island is what gave New York to Carter.  He nearly won both counties there when Republicans back then used to get around 60% in both.  That made up for his horrendous upstate performance where he did nearly as badly as McGovern.  He even lost the Albany area Congressional district that actually flipped to him in 1980 and only barely went for Nixon in 1972.

He even lost Tompkins both times, even though it's voted Democratic ever since. Yep, it's one of those Ford / Mondale counties.
Gotta love those Ford-Mondale counties. I thought it was Ford's rejection of federal aid for NYC in 1975 that gave NYC a huge swing toward Carter in '76-- much stronger than average for a northern city (and in stark contrast to Boston's -6 swing). McCarthy's being kept off the ballot may have helped too.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2015, 08:58:43 AM »

Ford to City: Drop Dead
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2015, 08:59:50 AM »

NYC was a very different place in the 1970s. There was population loss, rampant crime, deteriorating infrastructure, a seedy element and they were in terrible financial trouble.

Lindsey liberalism run amok
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2015, 09:21:19 AM »

NYC was a very different place in the 1970s. There was population loss, rampant crime, deteriorating infrastructure, a seedy element and they were in terrible financial trouble.

Lindsey liberalism run amok
John Lindsey was a pretty mediocre and ineffective mayor.
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FEMA Camp Administrator
Cathcon
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« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2015, 10:19:23 AM »

NYC was a very different place in the 1970s. There was population loss, rampant crime, deteriorating infrastructure, a seedy element and they were in terrible financial trouble.

Lindsey liberalism run amok
John Lindsey was a pretty mediocre and ineffective mayor.

Insert "awful" as well.
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Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
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« Reply #19 on: May 08, 2015, 03:34:51 PM »

For much of the 20th century, New York was slightly (Atlas) redder than the rest of the nation (the exceptions being 1916 and 1948 with New York governors Hughes and Dewey as the Republican nominees).  The Democratic tilt in NYC was strongly counterbalanced by upstate and Long Island.  That has changed since 1980 with the depopulation in upstate New York plus the increasing liberalization of NYC and the suburbs.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: May 08, 2015, 03:39:59 PM »
« Edited: May 08, 2015, 04:59:08 PM by ElectionsGuy »

All the times Democrats have won New York up until 1988 (with the exceptions of a few landslides), its because NYC. Since the 90's though, the rest of the state has been leaning Democratic anyway.
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Beet
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« Reply #21 on: May 08, 2015, 04:56:13 PM »

For much of the 20th century, New York was slightly (Atlas) redder than the rest of the nation (the exceptions being 1916 and 1948 with New York governors Hughes and Dewey as the Republican nominees).  The Democratic tilt in NYC was strongly counterbalanced by upstate and Long Island.  That has changed since 1980 with the depopulation in upstate New York plus the increasing liberalization of NYC and the suburbs.

This. But it goes back even further- Cleveland won it in 1884. The Tammany machine has its roots in the 1790s. NYC has some of the most ancestrally Democratic neighborhoods in the country.
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #22 on: May 08, 2015, 05:43:10 PM »

For much of the 20th century, New York was slightly (Atlas) redder than the rest of the nation (the exceptions being 1916 and 1948 with New York governors Hughes and Dewey as the Republican nominees).  The Democratic tilt in NYC was strongly counterbalanced by upstate and Long Island.  That has changed since 1980 with the depopulation in upstate New York plus the increasing liberalization of NYC and the suburbs.

This. But it goes back even further- Cleveland won it in 1884. The Tammany machine has its roots in the 1790s. NYC has some of the most ancestrally Democratic neighborhoods in the country.
Hell, Seymour won it in 1868!

It was also a state where Lincoln's margin was greatly reduced, from seven points in 1860 to just one in 1864.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #23 on: May 09, 2015, 02:00:32 AM »

Yes, most specifically the Irish.

The Republicans always got into trouble as well when the dry protestants in the north country started causing trouble. The Republicans won the mayor position in 1890's (how Teddy got on the Police Commission) only to have TR's rigid enforcement of an anti-liquor law bring about their defeat. For Teddy's purposes, he claimed that if the people disliked the law they could vote to change it, and they did by voting his boss and by extension himself onto the unemployment line.

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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #24 on: May 09, 2015, 02:05:08 AM »

The Republicans, fleeing demographic catastrophe since 1854.

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