1960: HHH wins the Democratic nomination instead of JFK

[TDAS04]

Hubert Humphrey wins the Democratic nomination for President in 1960 and faces Nixon in the general election.

Who wins?  What does the electoral map look like?  Who are the VP candidates?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I don't know enough about the politics at the time to really figure out the map, but I doubt any ticket but Kennedy/Johnson could have beat Nixon.

[barfbag]

Nixon would've won in a landslide of electoral votes, but the popular vote would've been roughly 53-47.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I think we tend to overestimate Nixon's strength in 1960. After all, he was still a highly divisive figure and being Ike's loyal lieutenant was not exactly a great asset (remember JFK effectively positioned himself against Eisenhower's "passive Presidency"). Yet JFK wasn't really the strongest candidate. For all his TV charisma, he was disliked by a large segment of his own party and without LBJ, he would have lost. The election was close because the two candidates weren't really strong.

With candidate such as Stuart Symington or Adlai Stevenson (remember that he was still reasonably popular and since Ike was unbeatable, he wasn't really blamed for last two defeats), the Democrats would probably win quite comfortably. And, likewise, with candidate such as Nelson Rockefeller, the Republicans would easily prevail.

I agree, however, Humphrey wouldn't stand much chance in 1960, even against Nixon.

[barfbag]

I think we tend to overestimate Nixon's strength in 1960. After all, he was still a highly divisive figure and being Ike's loyal lieutenant was not exactly a great asset (remember JFK effectively positioned himself against Eisenhower's "passive Presidency"). Yet JFK wasn't really the strongest candidate. For all his TV charisma, he was disliked by a large segment of his own party and without LBJ, he would have lost. The election was close because the two candidates weren't really strong.

With candidate such as Stuart Symington or Adlai Stevenson (remember that he was still reasonably popular and since Ike was unbeatable, he wasn't really blamed for last two defeats), the Democrats would probably win quite comfortably. And, likewise, with candidate such as Nelson Rockefeller, the Republicans would easily prevail.

I agree, however, Humphrey wouldn't stand much chance in 1960, even against Nixon.

You think Stevenson would've beaten Nixon in 1960?

[TDAS04]

Humphrey might have done better than JFK in the Midwest, where many Protestants did not like Papists. 

On the other hand, HHH would likely have done much worse in the South due to his strong record of support for civil rights.

[barfbag]

Humphrey might have done better than JFK in the Midwest, where many Protestants did not like Papists. 

On the other hand, HHH would likely have done much worse in the South due to his strong record of support for civil rights.

Also, states like CT, MD, DE, NJ, and possibly MD or NY could've gone for Nixon and all would have been in play. I see Humphrey winning MA, RI, WV, HI, MN, AL, AR, LA, GA, and if not for Byrd MS.

[TDAS04]

I think that HHH/LBJ vs. Nixon/Lodge might have looked something like this.

Nixon:  255
Humphrey:  252
Byrd:  30 (from MS, LA, and AL, plus the faithless elector from OK)

No candidate obtains a majority in the Electoral College. 

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I think that HHH/LBJ vs. Nixon/Lodge might have looked something like this.

Nixon:  255
Humphrey:  252
Byrd:  30 (from MS, LA, and AL, plus the faithless elector from OK)

No candidate obtains a majority in the Electoral College. 

I'll assume HHH and LBJ win in the Congressional vote, considering the large Democratic majorities?

[TDAS04]

I think that HHH/LBJ vs. Nixon/Lodge might have looked something like this.

Nixon:  255
Humphrey:  252
Byrd:  30 (from MS, LA, and AL, plus the faithless elector from OK)

No candidate obtains a majority in the Electoral College. 

I'll assume HHH and LBJ win in the Congressional vote, considering the large Democratic majorities?

Unless Nixon cuts a deal with Unpledged or Byrd electors.

[Peter the Lefty]

I actually think we don't realize how freaky it is, in terms of probability, that the Democrats ended up winning in 1960.  JFK was by far the strongest candidate the Dems could've nominated as far as his vote-winning abilities (even though I would've been for Humphrey hands down).  And Johnson was the only running mate with whom he could've won that election.  Looking at how close it was with Kennedy, I doubt any other candidates could've won.  Stevenson was considered old news, and Humphrey would've probably been seen as too liberal.  He would've tanked in the South, even with Johnson as his running mate.  And Symington, while not too divisive, still didn't have the charm and appeal that Kennedy did. 

[johnpressman]

Very interesting, but a LBJ/HHH ticket was more probable in 1960 than a HHH/LBJ pairing.  Remember, Humphrey was considered a stalking horse for Johnson when he challenged JFK in the Wisconsin and West Virginia primaries.  Humphrey inexplicably endorsed Stevenson at the Democratic Convention!

A HHH/LBJ ticket would have had a hard time in the South, even with LBJ on the ticket.  Southerners would not have forgotten that Humphrey's speech in favor of civil rights prompted the walk out of the "Dixiecrats" at the 1948 Democratic Convention.  Also, Humphrey's strident tone and garrulous manner would have worn thin on the national electorate by November. Nixon would have carried Illinois and Texas, possibly one or both of the Carolinas. 

The biggest change in the 1960 election with HHH on the ticket, however, would be the increase in the number of Unpledged Electors in several Southern States.

[Peter the Lefty]

Very interesting, but a LBJ/HHH ticket was more probable in 1960 than a HHH/LBJ pairing.  Remember, Humphrey was considered a stalking horse for Johnson when he challenged JFK in the Wisconsin and West Virginia primaries.  Humphrey inexplicably endorsed Stevenson at the Democratic Convention!

A HHH/LBJ ticket would have had a hard time in the South, even with LBJ on the ticket.  Southerners would not have forgotten that Humphrey's speech in favor of civil rights prompted the walk out of the "Dixiecrats" at the 1948 Democratic Convention.  Also, Humphrey's strident tone and garrulous manner would have worn thin on the national electorate by November. Nixon would have carried Illinois and Texas, possibly one or both of the Carolinas. 

The biggest change in the 1960 election with HHH on the ticket, however, would be the increase in the number of Unpledged Electors in several Southern States.

I've never heard that before.  Everything I've read about his 1960 campaign sounds like he was truly in it to win.  Plus, the two were considered to be on ideologically opposite wings of the party.

[MATTROSE94]

I think that HHH/LBJ vs. Nixon/Lodge might have looked something like this.

Nixon:  255
Humphrey:  252
Byrd:  30 (from MS, LA, and AL, plus the faithless elector from OK)

No candidate obtains a majority in the Electoral College. 

Your map looks pretty accurate, although I would flip Missouri and North Carolina to Nixon, as they were both fairly close states in RL.

[President Johnson]

Nixon wins narowly:

Vice President Richard Nixon/Senator Henry Cabot Lodge: 279 EV. 50.8%
Senator Hubert Humphrey/Senator Stuart Symington: 250 EV. 48.3%

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Humphrey picks Lyndon Johnson as his running mate - someone he's worked with closely in the Senate and also has the potential to help him win the South - though this hope runs into concern over Humphrey's strong support for racial equality and a growing and increasingly Republican Southern middle class.  Humphrey's passion stands out in comparison to Nixon but his politics tend not to connect well with suburban voters.

VP. Nixon (R-CA)/Sen. Lodge (R-MA)  50.7% 317 EV
Sen. Humphey (D-MN)/ Sen. Johnson (D-TX)  47.9%  212 EV 
Unpledged    .9%   8 EV           
others   .5%

[Peter the Lefty]

Vice-President Richard M. Nixon/Senator Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. (R)–49.1%
Senator Hubert H. Humphrey/Senator Lyndon Baines Johnson (D)–43.3%
Senator Harry F. Byrd/Governor Orval Faubus (I)–7.5%

[President Johnson]

Humphrey picks Lyndon Johnson as his running mate - someone he's worked with closely in the Senate and also has the potential to help him win the South - though this hope runs into concern over Humphrey's strong support for racial equality and a growing and increasingly Republican Southern middle class.  Humphrey's passion stands out in comparison to Nixon but his politics tend not to connect well with suburban voters.

VP. Nixon (R-CA)/Sen. Lodge (R-MA)  50.7% 317 EV
Sen. Humphey (D-MN)/ Sen. Johnson (D-TX)  47.9%  212 EV 
Unpledged    .9%   8 EV           
others   .5%

No Texas victoty with LBJ on the ticket? Seems to be impossible to me.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

No Texas victoty with LBJ on the ticket? Seems to be impossible to me.

It was close enough with JFK that if Humphrey didn't play as well there, they could lose pretty easily - unless you are implying inevitable shenanigans.

[RogueBeaver]

LBJ was very worried about losing TX, repeatedly telling Amon Carter and others that he couldn't lose his home state. The business community and their Shivercrat allies were furious at LBJ for joining Yankee liberal JFK's ticket, plus Republicanization was gaining steam. (Or look at LBJ being held to 58% by Tower in November) What turned it around was the Adolphus riot. Handwave that and LBJ could well lose Texas.

On the OP: HHH loses to Nixon, too liberal for the South and Northern business.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I think Hubert Humphrey would have narrowly won.