Which State is Most Likely to "Flip" in 2016?

[JRP1994]

Vote!

[Blue3]

One of these:

Florida
North Carolina  
Ohio
Colorado
Pennsylvania

(I voted NC)

[TDAS04]

North Carolina is my guess.

[opebo]

Colorado, Florida, or Ohio.  But I think probably none will flip.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'll pick North Carolina simply because all of the states won by Obama are either out of reach for Republicans time and time again or trending democratic.  The only 2 I can see Republicans taking back are Ohio and Florida.  But I still think it's more likely that Democrats pick up North Carolina assuming the trends continue.

[barfbag]

I said Florida because it typically votes for the winner, but occasionally votes for Republican losers. That's quite a list of battleground states besides Arizona and Georgia.

[Person Man]

Florida based on the fact the state Republicans in Florida are so much more competent, Democrats do so poorly amongst traditional constituents there and there are many more disadvantaged than privileged people there for whom voting is illegal.

North Carolina comes to mind. The state is becoming more diverse and urban, but its unlikely that Democrats can pull it off if they didn't this time because of how historically unlikely that the Democrats can pull off a hat trick.

Colorado is another one that comes to mind. The Democrats pissed off a lot of people this year and already two state pols were beaten in recalls. The coal industry helped Republicans do very well in some D friendly parts of the state in 2012, too. I'd imagine they'll be less powerful in 2016 and despite being horrible there, is  better than it was this time in 2009 so I imagine they'll be alright in 2016 there.

[ElectionsGuy]

Any of the above ten are all somewhat likely, but I think it comes down to Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado.

[Person Man]

Any of the above ten are all somewhat likely, but I think it comes down to Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado.

I would go so far to say whoever wins the first one of these four that is called probably wins.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

A lot depends on who the GOP nominates, but because of the damage the NCGOP has done to its brand of late, North Carolina.

[IceSpear]

Florida. It was very surprising Obama won Florida to begin with.

Of course this assumes a competitive election. If it ends up being a Hillary vs. Cruz landslide, North Carolina would be the first domino to fall, along with many others.

[ElectionsGuy]

Any of the above ten are all somewhat likely, but I think it comes down to Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado.

I would go so far to say whoever wins the first one of these four that is called probably wins.

Yes, republicans need Ohio, there's no way around it.

[TarHeelDem]

North Carolina. NC GOP has screwed the party over, and odds are Hillary is the Democratic nominee. That combination makes NC the most likely state to flip.

[illegaloperation]

North Carolina.

Republicans have turned the state into a laughingstock after they took over the state for the first time in 130 years.

[Flake]

North Carolina, West Virginia if it's a really good year for the Clintons.

[opebo]

Folks might be overestimated North Carolina - the GOP there will massively disenfranchise poors/blacks, etc.

But, on the bright side, this is still a win for the good side!:

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Ohio, since it's more likely that the Republicans will win and Ohio has a long track record of voting for the winner. (The last time the loser won Ohio was 1960.)

[Gass3268]

North Carolina

[old timey villain]

Wow, people are pretty confident about NC flipping. Although if 2016 is a Republican win I highly doubt it will flip. If a Republican wins I think Ohio is most likely to flip since it's a perennial swing state and the rural areas are trending red while the urban areas won't have someone like Mitt Romney to vote against. If a D wins then it will probably be NC and in a landslide maybe GA.

[opebo]

Ohio, since it's more likely that the Republicans will win and Ohio has a long track record of voting for the winner. (The last time the loser won Ohio was 1960.)

Not to mention that it is practically impossible for Republicans to win without Ohio.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Wow, people are pretty confident about NC flipping. Although if 2016 is a Republican win I highly doubt it will flip. If a Republican wins I think Ohio is most likely to flip since it's a perennial swing state and the rural areas are trending red while the urban areas won't have someone like Mitt Romney to vote against. If a D wins then it will probably be NC and in a landslide maybe GA.

Given who the Republicans are likely to nominate in 2016, it is highly unlikely a Republican will win.

The three most likely scenarios are, in no particular order:
North Carolina flips and the Democrats win by a larger margin than in 2012.
Florida flips and the Democrats win by a smaller margin than in 2012.
North Carolina and Florida both flip.

[Asian Nazi]

Ohio, closely followed by North Carolina and Florida.

[Smash255]

If the GOP is stupid enough to nominate Cruz, North Carolina with a bunch of others to follow.  Even if the GOP nominates someone halfway sane, NC is still the most likely one.  The Teavangelicals have completely destroyed the party.

[barfbag]

If the GOP is stupid enough to nominate Cruz, North Carolina with a bunch of others to follow.  Even if the GOP nominates someone halfway sane, NC is still the most likely one.  The Teavangelicals have completely destroyed the party.

What makes you think Cruz will be nominated at all?

[morgieb]

If the GOP nominate a mainstream candidate: Florida. Though Colorado wouldn't surprise me as Hillary isn't a great 'fit' there.

If not: North Carolina.