Which State is Most Likely to "Flip" in 2016?

[barfbag]

DEM --> GOP: Florida, Ohio; Michigan

GOP --> DEM: 0,0

I don't know about Michigan unless Romney ran again for some reason.

Michigan will only flip in a victory similar to Obama '08, so you'd have to list CO, VA, NH, PA, NV, and WI before you could start talking about Michigan.

Along with OR, MN, IA, and NM. MI is between light blue and purplish blue.

[Skill and Chance]

Either CO or NC depending on who is winning.  I think Hillary would be stronger even in FL than CO.

[CubanoTX]

Colorado and Ohio if the dems do not put a black face running again they will lose a lot of the black turnout and that will hurt a lot in those states Ohio even more so

[BaldEagle1991]

I vote Florida.

But I will put in a big unlikely bet that New Jersey could possibly flip.

North Carolina closely followed by Arizona

In 2028 sometime in the 2020's Georgia & Texas will follow.

I'm just going to say that TX & GA are electoral identical twins, and them voting differently right now or any time in the future would break the space time continuum.

[Cryptic]

Either Florida to the GOP or North Carolina to the Democrats.

[opebo]

Colorado and Ohio if the dems do not put a black face running again they will lose a lot of the black turnout and that will hurt a lot in those states Ohio even more so

Dude there aren't many blacks in Colorado, and Ohio not many - though I agree that in the latter they could be decisive.  Don't forget that Ohio might see some working class whites swing D with a whiteface at the top of that ticket.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I have to go with Florida.

[Mister Mets]

Florida, pretty clearly.

It was Obama's closest state, and it has two potential Republican presidential contenders.

North Carolina's the most likely Romney state to flip, but it is historically unlikely since it requires the Democratic nominee to outperform Obama in 2012.

[illegaloperation]

North Carolina's the most likely Romney state to flip, but it is historically unlikely since it requires the Democratic nominee to outperform Obama in 2012.

North Carolina is experiencing the same similar demographic trends to those of those of Virginia.  The urban areas (Research Triangle, Charlotte, etc.) is gaining population while the rural parts of the state is losing population.

Furthermore, after the Republicans have taken over the state government for the first time in 130 years, they have alienate the urban dweller by pushing through far-right wing agenda.

[Brewer]

Colorado. Hillary will probably be the nominee, and polls show her relatively getting her ass whooped, so in a Clinton-Christie matchup I think this would be the first state to flip.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

If it's Clinton, as I'm just assuming it will be, Colorado is going to go back to the dark side. 

North Carolina, however, will once again be major network blue. 

[opebo]

If it's Clinton, as I'm just assuming it will be, Colorado is going to go back to the dark side. 

I really doubt it.  CO polled a bit R sometimes on the way into all the recent elections..

[Mister Mets]

North Carolina's the most likely Romney state to flip, but it is historically unlikely since it requires the Democratic nominee to outperform Obama in 2012.

North Carolina is experiencing the same similar demographic trends to those of those of Virginia.  The urban areas (Research Triangle, Charlotte, etc.) is gaining population while the rural parts of the state is losing population.

Furthermore, after the Republicans have taken over the state government for the first time in 130 years, they have alienate the urban dweller by pushing through far-right wing agenda.

One disadvantage for Democrats is the likelihood of reduced African-American voter turnout without the first black President on the ballot.

I'm curious regarding the possibility of a backlash against state Republicans helping national candidates. Similar predictions have been made for other races over the years, but I'm wondering if it's ever happened.

Is there any presidential election in which a backlash against the Governor was deemed enough to swing a state? If so, what election and what state?

[Person Man]

The problem is that a lot of people who would vote for Obama, will forget to vote or abstain if Hillary is running. And a lot of people who would do the opposite in 2008 and 2012, will not be willing to do so in 2016. The D brand is dying in the hills and waterways of the peripheral south. Whatever Hillary can get in votes there probably won't be enough to offset votes she couldn't get else where.

[New_Conservative]

I'd say Ohio, and Florida are the most likely.

North Carolina is also possible.

[Cranberry]

I would say North Carolina. As many have mentioned before, what the Republicans did there was enough to put it in the Democratic column.
If Clinton wins, we might even see Georgia, and with great luck West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky or Missouri going to her; also I highly doubt it.
For the GOP the only states I see in reach are Florida, and maybe Colorado. I wouldn't say Ohio, as Clinton might be appealing to the working-class whites.

Btw: That's my first post in this forum ^^

[Skill and Chance]

North Carolina's the most likely Romney state to flip, but it is historically unlikely since it requires the Democratic nominee to outperform Obama in 2012.

North Carolina is experiencing the same similar demographic trends to those of those of Virginia.  The urban areas (Research Triangle, Charlotte, etc.) is gaining population while the rural parts of the state is losing population.

Furthermore, after the Republicans have taken over the state government for the first time in 130 years, they have alienate the urban dweller by pushing through far-right wing agenda.

One disadvantage for Democrats is the likelihood of reduced African-American voter turnout without the first black President on the ballot.

I'm curious regarding the possibility of a backlash against state Republicans helping national candidates. Similar predictions have been made for other races over the years, but I'm wondering if it's ever happened.

Is there any presidential election in which a backlash against the Governor was deemed enough to swing a state? If so, what election and what state?

You could make a credible case for Florida 2012.  You could also argue that the whole Blagojevich saga got Mark Kirk elected in IL, but of course that isn't presidential.

[⛄]

Missouri, of course. There's no way it would vote against Clinton.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Missouri, of course. There's no way it would vote against Clinton.

Are you serious?

I'd see Arkansas going for Clinton before Missouri, and I don't see Arkansas having a chance at going Democratic in 2016 at all.

[BaconBacon96]

Missouri, of course. There's no way it would vote against Clinton.

Are you serious?

I'd see Arkansas going for Clinton before Missouri, and I don't see Arkansas having a chance at going Democratic in 2016 at all.

Missouri could go Clinton in the right circumstances.

[IceSpear]

Missouri, of course. There's no way it would vote against Clinton.

Are you serious?

I'd see Arkansas going for Clinton before Missouri, and I don't see Arkansas having a chance at going Democratic in 2016 at all.

The urban areas make Missouri far more Democratic than Arkansas.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Missouri, of course. There's no way it would vote against Clinton.

Are you serious?

I'd see Arkansas going for Clinton before Missouri, and I don't see Arkansas having a chance at going Democratic in 2016 at all.

The urban areas make Missouri far more Democratic than Arkansas.

My bad. I definitely don't see Democrats flipping Missouri with Clinton at the top of the ticket which is why I replied originally, but I injected my gut thought that the Clintons would win their "home state" before they flipped Missouri, which ignored the fact that Missouri is stronger D in presidential elections than Arkansas.

Anyway, I just don't see how Hillary could shift either in her column if she was running in 2016 no matter what winning margin of the vote they gave Romney in 2012. I think the usual suspects will flip: North Carolina and Florida.

[Starpaul20]

I voted for Florida, but I can see either North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia or Colorado flipping too.

[Clermont County GOPer]

Ohio