Which State is Most Likely to "Flip" in 2016?

[Stranger in a strange land]

If the GOP is stupid enough to nominate Cruz, North Carolina with a bunch of others to follow.  Even if the GOP nominates someone halfway sane, NC is still the most likely one.  The Teavangelicals have completely destroyed the party.

What makes you think Cruz will be nominated at all?

Republican primaries these days are won through a combination of fundraising, demagoging, and throwing red meat at the base, all of which Cruz excels at.

[barfbag]

If the GOP is stupid enough to nominate Cruz, North Carolina with a bunch of others to follow.  Even if the GOP nominates someone halfway sane, NC is still the most likely one.  The Teavangelicals have completely destroyed the party.

What makes you think Cruz will be nominated at all?

Republican primaries these days are won through a combination of fundraising, demagoging, and throwing red meat at the base, all of which Cruz excels at.

You must not remember John McCain and Mitt Romney running against Obama. During the primaries, they were seen by the majority of the party as too moderate and not conservative enough. Keep reinventing history though. Your party excels at that.

[eric82oslo]

North Carolina closely followed by Arizona.

In 2020, Georgia will shift as well. And in 2024, Texas will follow.

[barfbag]

North Carolina closely followed by Arizona.

In 2020, Georgia will shift as well. And in 2024, Texas will follow.

Here is the Arizona trend.

1996 R+5
2000 R+7
2004 R+8
2008 R+15 (McCain)
2012 R+12

So when we factor in McCain, we see a state that has been trending Republican since 1996. In what world could it be possible for it to flip before a state like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, even New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, and Minnesota are more likely. I'll even say Maine and Montana would flip before Arizona.

[ElectionsGuy]

North Carolina closely followed by Arizona.

In 2020, Georgia will shift as well. And in 2024, Texas will follow.

That's very skeptical my friend.

[Consciously Unconscious]

North Carolina closely followed by Arizona.

In 2020, Georgia will shift as well. And in 2024, Texas will follow.

That's very skeptical my friend.

By 2024 Oklahoma will be going Democratic #REDY4HILERY

[JRP1994]

North Carolina closely followed by Arizona.

In 2020, Georgia will shift as well. And in 2024 2044, Texas will follow.

[nclib]

NC, assuming the NCGOP hasn't disenfranchised enough Dem votes.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

FL. I doubt Dems will do better than in 2012, and the Hillary vs. Cruz speculation is just wishful thinking. Cruz, in the recent Marquette poll for WI gets 4%. Sure, Cruz 2016. If 2016 is the 2000 redux I expect it to be then FL will be the first state to fall.

[IceSpear]

FL. I doubt Dems will do better than in 2012, and the Hillary vs. Cruz speculation is just wishful thinking. Cruz, in the recent Marquette poll for WI gets 4%. Sure, Cruz 2016. If 2016 is the 2000 redux I expect it to be then FL will be the first state to fall.

Wisconsin doesn't make a bit of difference in the primaries. Iowa and South Carolina do, and I bet Cruz will be at or near the top of the pack in those states.

[Nichlemn]

The only sensible answers are Florida and North Carolina, as the closest states and the closest won by each party. Ohio, I suppose, is defensible, but I find it improbable to conceive of a race where the Rs win Ohio but not Florida, let alone have it more likely than the converse.

Your answer should basically boil down to "Do you think it's more likely than not that the 2016 Democratic nominee will outperform Obama?", with perhaps a further tilting of the scales towards the Republicans on the basis that NC was not as close as FL and Obama is perhaps a uniquely good fit for that state. (You could consider the unpopularity of state Republicans as a mitigating factor, but state politics don't tend to influence Presidential races as much as the fundamentals).

 On that basis, I vote Florida. I think the Democrats are a small favourite to win the Presidency in 2016, mostly due to Hillary, but the over/under line is not at Obama's 2012 performance.  

[eric82oslo]

North Carolina closely followed by Arizona.

In 2020, Georgia will shift as well. And in 2024, Texas will follow.

Here is the Arizona trend.

1996 R+5
2000 R+7
2004 R+8
2008 R+15 (McCain)
2012 R+12

So when we factor in McCain, we see a state that has been trending Republican since 1996. In what world could it be possible for it to flip before a state like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, even New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, and Minnesota are more likely. I'll even say Maine and Montana would flip before Arizona.

Because trends are not everything. Early polls are showing more or less a dead heat among Hillary and Republicans in Texas, and this is still only 2013 speaking. Arizona is much less partisan than Texas - or Kentucky, Louisiana and Arkansas - other states that are showing practically dead heats already - thus the likelihood is not small that Hillary is already leading in a state like Arizona, though no poll has been conducted in the state yet, strangely.

Kentucky, Louisiana and Arkansas, however, are likely to turn back onto Republican soil in either 2020 or 2024 (in the end they might not even vote for Hillary in 2016, it's way too early to tell for that of course), yet with Arizona, Texas and Georgia, the story will be a very different one. They are for sure the next California, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina in making. Just wait and see. You don't really have to be a rocket scientist to figure that out.

North Carolina, Florida, Arizona and Texas are all witnessing at least some degree of backlashes after too wild Republican policies in the states. This will likely have both short-term and possibly even long-term consequences as well. After all, the main reason why California changed so fast from being a toss-up state to becoming solidly Democratic was the strongly anti-immigrant policies of the local Republican party in the mid 1990s. Now Arizona, North Carolina and Florida is in the middle of that exact same path, Texas however has not shown that much hostility towards immigrants and latinos yet however, so their backlash might come somewhat later, perhaps.

[MATTROSE94]

North Carolina closely followed by Arizona.

In 2020, Georgia will shift as well. And in 2024, Texas will follow.

That's very skeptical my friend.

By 2024 2084 Oklahoma will be going Democratic #REDY4HILERY

[illegaloperation]

The only sensible answers are Florida and North Carolina, as the closest states and the closest won by each party. [..]
Your answer should basically boil down to "Do you think it's more likely than not that the 2016 Democratic nominee will outperform Obama?", with perhaps a further tilting of the scales towards the Republicans on the basis that NC was not as close as FL and Obama is perhaps a uniquely good fit for that state.    

The order doesn't have to stay the same in every election. It's conceivable that North Carolina move to the left of Florida and the Democratic nominee lost Florida, but won North Carolina.

North Carolina is basically a two cycle delay of Virginia.

[eric82oslo]

North Carolina closely followed by Arizona.

In 2020, Georgia will shift as well. And in 2024, Texas will follow.

That's very skeptical my friend.

By 2024 2084 Oklahoma will be going Democratic #REDY4HILERY

By 2084, there will be a multi-party system in the US. Just like in almost every other country.

Even the UK has a 3, beginning to become a 4 party system. Which in fact is even larger than that, as they also have the regional parties of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

I don't see it as entirely unlikely that something similar could in fact happen in the US in the near future. The Libertarian Party is already becoming a local treat to GOP in some places, including in Virginia where they're about to get 10% of the votes in the upcoming gubernatorial election. I could see it happening that within 5-10-15 years, the Libertarian Party could be almost as prominent as GOP in several conservative states, especially so in the West and the North (North-West). Something similar could possibly happen on the left side of politics. I could imagine a revival for the Green Party in say 10-15-20 years from now, where they would become a serious treat to local and national Democratic candidates in solidly Democratic states like California, New York, Vermont, Hawaii and so on.

[5280]

I voted Ohio. The next states to flip to the GOP are Florida, Virginia and Colorado during a good year for them.  For the DEMs, North Carolina, and Georgia.

[5280]

North Carolina closely followed by ArizonaGeorgia.

In 2028, Georgia Arizona will shift as well. And in 2028 2032, Texas will follow.

[windjammer]

Hmmmmmm
Colorado, North Carolina

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tipping pt states are Ia,NM and Co, NV for 268. Bellweathers of NH, Va or OH to get past 270. Since GOP need Oh, it is most likely to flip, D's don't.

[MATTROSE94]

I think that Ohio, Colorado and maybe Iowa would go Republican in 2016 if the party nominates a strong and noncontroversial candidate such as Chris Christie. In addition, North Carolina may go Democratic if Governor Pat McCrory's popularity falls even further by 2016.

[MATTROSE94]

I voted Ohio. The next states to flip to the GOP are Florida, Virginia and Colorado during a good year for them.  For the DEMs, North Carolina, and Georgia.

The only way I see Georgia flipping in 2016 is if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee or if Ted Cruz or any other tea-party politician mounts a third-party bid against Chris Christie if he gets the nomination, as then the conservative vote would be split, thus enabling the Democrat to win the state with a plurality of the vote. 

[Unimog]

DEM --> GOP: Florida, Ohio; Michigan

GOP --> DEM: 0,0

[barfbag]

DEM --> GOP: Florida, Ohio; Michigan

GOP --> DEM: 0,0

I don't know about Michigan unless Romney ran again for some reason.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

DEM --> GOP: Florida, Ohio; Michigan

GOP --> DEM: 0,0

I don't know about Michigan unless Romney ran again for some reason.

Michigan will only flip in a victory similar to Obama '08, so you'd have to list CO, VA, NH, PA, NV, and WI before you could start talking about Michigan.

[barfbag]

If the GOP is stupid enough to nominate Cruz, North Carolina with a bunch of others to follow.  Even if the GOP nominates someone halfway sane, NC is still the most likely one.  The Teavangelicals have completely destroyed the party.

What makes you think Cruz will be nominated at all?

Republican primaries these days are won through a combination of fundraising, demagoging, and throwing red meat at the base, all of which Cruz excels at.

So that's why McCain and Romney won? Actually what you've said is the opposite of what's true. We're living at an age where the more moderates win. Chris Christie is also considered a rino to some and likely to be the nominee next time. If what you said was true, then we would've seen Thompson or Giuliani nominated in 2008 and Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich nominated last time. All you wanted to do was take a cheap shot at the other party instead of getting things done for our great nation.