Washington Post's series on West Virginia

[illegaloperation]

Washington Post did a series on West Virginia.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2013/10/26/a-blue-states-road-to-red/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/west-virginias-flip-from-democratic-to-republican/2013/10/26/b802c0da-3e90-11e3-a94f-b58017bfee6c_graphic.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/posttv/national/politics-economy-and-atvs-in-west-virginia/2013/10/26/0e555966-3a7c-11e3-b7ba-503fb5822c3e_video.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-blue-states-road-to-red-how-west-virginia-moved-to-the-gop/2013/10/26/afb37f38-27c4-11e3-ad0d-b7c8d2a594b9_gallery.html

[Person Man]

It seems the Republicans are doing well there because of cultural issues and the "War On Coal". However, it will be interesting how things change once there's not much Coal Industry left to defend and more people from metro DC start commuting from there.

[IceSpear]

It seems the Republicans are doing well there because of cultural issues and the "War On Coal". However, it will be interesting how things change once there's not much Coal Industry left to defend and more people from metro DC start commuting from there.

"Cultural issues" is a very generous description. I'd say it has a lot to do with Obama presidenting while black.

(Yeah, I know Gore and Kerry lost it too, but they still did respectably. Obama got blown out of the water even when the rest of the nation trended Dem)

[Person Man]

It seems the Republicans are doing well there because of cultural issues and the "War On Coal". However, it will be interesting how things change once there's not much Coal Industry left to defend and more people from metro DC start commuting from there.

"Cultural issues" is a very generous description. I'd say it has a lot to do with Obama presidenting while black.

(Yeah, I know Gore and Kerry lost it too, but they still did respectably. Obama got blown out of the water even when the rest of the nation trended Dem)

Gore did ok...Kerry not so much. 

[illegaloperation]

It seems the Republicans are doing well there because of cultural issues and the "War On Coal". However, it will be interesting how things change once there's not much Coal Industry left to defend and more people from metro DC start commuting from there.

The future of West Virginia is probably fracking.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/new-energy-paradigm/in-fracking-west-virignia-sees-a-second-chance-20131027

[ElectionsGuy]

It seems the Republicans are doing well there because of cultural issues and the "War On Coal". However, it will be interesting how things change once there's not much Coal Industry left to defend and more people from metro DC start commuting from there.

"Cultural issues" is a very generous description. I'd say it has a lot to do with Obama presidenting while black.

(Yeah, I know Gore and Kerry lost it too, but they still did respectably. Obama got blown out of the water even when the rest of the nation trended Dem)

Stop. The reason Obama got blown out of West Virginia is because it is a religiously, culturally, and socially conservative state. The democratic party has moved far away from social and cultural conservatism in the last decades, and Obama's policies and attitudes definitely don't help either. Registered democrats outnumber registered republicans, but self-described conservatives outnumber self-described liberals. It has little to do with the fact that he's partly black.

[illegaloperation]

Stop. The reason Obama got blown out of West Virginia is because it is a religiously, culturally, and socially conservative state. The democratic party has moved far away from social and cultural conservatism in the last decades, and Obama's policies and attitudes definitely don't help either. Registered democrats outnumber registered republicans, but self-described conservatives outnumber self-described liberals. It has little to do with the fact that he's partly black.

West Virginia has always been a socially conservative state.

The reason it was so reliably Democratic is because of unionized mine workers.

[ElectionsGuy]

Stop. The reason Obama got blown out of West Virginia is because it is a religiously, culturally, and socially conservative state. The democratic party has moved far away from social and cultural conservatism in the last decades, and Obama's policies and attitudes definitely don't help either. Registered democrats outnumber registered republicans, but self-described conservatives outnumber self-described liberals. It has little to do with the fact that he's partly black.

West Virginia has always been a socially conservative state.

The reason it was so reliably Democratic is because of unionized mine workers.

Of course, and there was a time when the democratic party wasn't so hostile towards cultural conservatism and coal. Now, the democratic party has practically betrayed their principles, which is why they are in a republican shift.

[IceSpear]

It seems the Republicans are doing well there because of cultural issues and the "War On Coal". However, it will be interesting how things change once there's not much Coal Industry left to defend and more people from metro DC start commuting from there.

"Cultural issues" is a very generous description. I'd say it has a lot to do with Obama presidenting while black.

(Yeah, I know Gore and Kerry lost it too, but they still did respectably. Obama got blown out of the water even when the rest of the nation trended Dem)

Stop. The reason Obama got blown out of West Virginia is because it is a religiously, culturally, and socially conservative state. The democratic party has moved far away from social and cultural conservatism in the last decades, and Obama's policies and attitudes definitely don't help either. Registered democrats outnumber registered republicans, but self-described conservatives outnumber self-described liberals. It has little to do with the fact that he's partly black.

Then why did John Kerry do better than Obama even while the nation was more conservative as a whole in 2004? Kerry was just as liberal as Obama.

I'm not saying there aren't other factors. But race is definitely a factor as well.

[ElectionsGuy]

It seems the Republicans are doing well there because of cultural issues and the "War On Coal". However, it will be interesting how things change once there's not much Coal Industry left to defend and more people from metro DC start commuting from there.

"Cultural issues" is a very generous description. I'd say it has a lot to do with Obama presidenting while black.

(Yeah, I know Gore and Kerry lost it too, but they still did respectably. Obama got blown out of the water even when the rest of the nation trended Dem)

Stop. The reason Obama got blown out of West Virginia is because it is a religiously, culturally, and socially conservative state. The democratic party has moved far away from social and cultural conservatism in the last decades, and Obama's policies and attitudes definitely don't help either. Registered democrats outnumber registered republicans, but self-described conservatives outnumber self-described liberals. It has little to do with the fact that he's partly black.

Then why did John Kerry do better than Obama even while the nation was more conservative as a whole in 2004? Kerry was just as liberal as Obama.

I'm not saying there aren't other factors. But race is definitely a factor as well.

John Kerry did better because the democratic party wasn't nearly as hostile to social conservative values then as it is now. The country has moved quickly in a liberal direction on on social/cultural issues, and the democratic party now feels completely open to embrace those values and bash anyone who doesn't believe in them. West Virginia however has lagged behind the country on social issues, so in many ways, they feel the democratic party has betrayed them on those issues. And Kerry was definitely not as liberal as Obama, as far as voting records and economic stances and beliefs go, Obama was definitely more liberal (but didn't necessarily present himself in that way).

They also probably feel that Obama is very much an elitist, who doesn't like their coal or their way of life (guns, bibles, etc.). As the sources indicate, if you talk to any ordinary West Virginian, you'll hear just that about Obama. In fact that's probably why George W. Bush won, because of 

a) Democratic party moving away from their values over time
b) He seemed like an funny, casual, ordinary guy who you would "just like to have a beer with".

As much as I hate to say, but the perception, personality, and culture of a politician seems to matter a lot, even more than actual issues many times. That's almost certainly why Obama lost huge in West Virginia. Race could be a factor in some instances (and definitely more so in West Virginia, as it is lagging behind the country in moving in a more socially liberal direction, meaning less racism), but ultimately its not nearly as big of a factor as you and other liberals like to think it is, it is very much the issues I described above.

[illegaloperation]

Any idea how a socially liberal, but pro-coal Democratic presidential would perform in West Virginia?

[DINGO Joe]

Nothing can save WV coal.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=181240.msg3917087#msg3917087

[ElectionsGuy]

Any idea how a socially liberal, but pro-coal Democratic presidential would perform in West Virginia?

Now? Probably Gore/Kerry level.

[illegaloperation]

Any idea how a socially liberal, but pro-coal Democratic presidential would perform in West Virginia?

Now? Probably Gore/Kerry level.

That's not too bad.

Democrats don't need to outright win West Virginia in presidential elections.

All they need to do is make sure that the national party is NOT too toxic so that they can keep winning at the state level.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Stop. The reason Obama got blown out of West Virginia is because it is a religiously, culturally, and socially conservative state. The democratic party has moved far away from social and cultural conservatism in the last decades, and Obama's policies and attitudes definitely don't help either. Registered democrats outnumber registered republicans, but self-described conservatives outnumber self-described liberals. It has little to do with the fact that he's partly black.

This isn't entirely true. Roughly two-thirds (~64-65 percent) of West Virginians do not adhere to a religious affiliation, according to the ARDA. Those who do in West Virginia are more affiliated with mainline Protestantism, mostly Methodists, and they are not as fire-and-brimstone and bent up on the abortion, guns and gays issues like the evangelicals are. I don't think religion plays as huge of a factor in West Virginia as it does say in Mississippi.

[Indy Texas]

Stop. The reason Obama got blown out of West Virginia is because it is a religiously, culturally, and socially conservative state. The democratic party has moved far away from social and cultural conservatism in the last decades, and Obama's policies and attitudes definitely don't help either. Registered democrats outnumber registered republicans, but self-described conservatives outnumber self-described liberals. It has little to do with the fact that he's partly black.

This isn't entirely true. Roughly two-thirds (~64-65 percent) of West Virginians do not adhere to a religious affiliation, according to the ARDA. Those who do in West Virginia are more affiliated with mainline Protestantism, mostly Methodists, and they are not as fire-and-brimstone and bent up on the abortion, guns and gays issues like the evangelicals are. I don't think religion plays as huge of a factor in West Virginia as it does say in Mississippi.

There are a lot of "Northern" Baptists as well. One thing you have to remember about Appalachia is that geography and isolation prevented a "public religion" taking hold there in the way it did in the South and the Northeast. Whether you wanted to go to church or not, there was a high likelihood that you didn't live near one and simply didn't go as a result.

[barfbag]

Stop. The reason Obama got blown out of West Virginia is because it is a religiously, culturally, and socially conservative state. The democratic party has moved far away from social and cultural conservatism in the last decades, and Obama's policies and attitudes definitely don't help either. Registered democrats outnumber registered republicans, but self-described conservatives outnumber self-described liberals. It has little to do with the fact that he's partly black.

This isn't entirely true. Roughly two-thirds (~64-65 percent) of West Virginians do not adhere to a religious affiliation, according to the ARDA. Those who do in West Virginia are more affiliated with mainline Protestantism, mostly Methodists, and they are not as fire-and-brimstone and bent up on the abortion, guns and gays issues like the evangelicals are. I don't think religion plays as huge of a factor in West Virginia as it does say in Mississippi.

How do you explain the constant trend beginning in 1988? It's not like the next Democrat will be seen any different. Do you remember when he said "the prices of electricity will necessarily skyrocket?" That wasn't good for him in West Virginia either so that there is one thing which may have hurt him there.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It's called the urban/rural split. West Virginia just doesn't have any big cities.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, I'm pretty sure that if you add the District of Columbia to West Virginia, Obama would have won it.

[ElectionsGuy]

Also, I'm pretty sure that if you add the District of Columbia to West Virginia, Obama would have won it.

Well, for one thing, DC isn't connected to West Virginia. But if it was, then yes, it would vote for Obama:

Obama: 52.4% (505,339)
Romney: 45.5% (439,036)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Well, for one thing, DC isn't connected to West Virginia.

States don't have to be contiguous.

[ElectionsGuy]

Well, for one thing, DC isn't connected to West Virginia.

States don't have to be contiguous.

Not including states that have islands, most of them are. The only landlocked state that doesn't have contiguous land is Kentucky with the little piece of land in far western Kentucky due to the odd earthquakes in the early 19th century. So, while states don't have to be contiguous, it would be quite odd for West Virginia and DC to be a state not only because they wouldn't be contiguous, but their cultures are extremes away from each other.

[Sol]

If WV did have a big city, it would probably be more like Pittsburgh than DC.

[ElectionsGuy]

Stop. The reason Obama got blown out of West Virginia is because it is a religiously, culturally, and socially conservative state. The democratic party has moved far away from social and cultural conservatism in the last decades, and Obama's policies and attitudes definitely don't help either. Registered democrats outnumber registered republicans, but self-described conservatives outnumber self-described liberals. It has little to do with the fact that he's partly black.

This isn't entirely true. Roughly two-thirds (~64-65 percent) of West Virginians do not adhere to a religious affiliation, according to the ARDA. Those who do in West Virginia are more affiliated with mainline Protestantism, mostly Methodists, and they are not as fire-and-brimstone and bent up on the abortion, guns and gays issues like the evangelicals are. I don't think religion plays as huge of a factor in West Virginia as it does say in Mississippi.

I'm mostly talking about cultural/social conservatism. Religion does have some purpose, but I didn't think it had anywhere near the affect it had in the deep south.

[TJ in Oregon]

This idea of social liberalism and West Virginia isn't what everyone is making it out to be. Yes, the nation is moving in a direction more aligned with social liberalism while West Virginia isn't moving much at all. But the reason why the Democrats are falling apart in West Virginia isn't because of abortion and gay marriage, it's because of communication. The typical new socially liberal Democrat from an urban milieu is having trouble speaking to people in small coal towns in places like West Virginia without sounding condescending. Just because there are a lot of pro-choice West Virginians doesn't mean they'd vote for Wendy Davis or Sandra Fluke. The Democrats struggles in WV are about the way they portray themselves and the way they portray the Republicans. The national Democratic Party sells itself as an enlightened, educated, urbane group more "forward-thinking" than everyone else. West Virginia is much less of a socially conservative state as it is an anti-elitist state.