Metro area pop growth 2010-2020

[old timey villain]

Which metro areas will see the most population growth in the current decade?

For reference, here are the top 5 greatest gainers from 2000-2010

1) Houston/Sugarland/Baytown +1.23 million
2) Dallas/ Ft Worth/Arlington +1.21 million
3) Atlanta/Sandy Springs/Marietta +1 million
4) Riverside/San Bernardino +983K
5)Phoenix/Mesa/Glendale +941K

Will the sunbelt remain on top in 2020? Of the metros listed, Dallas and Houston never really slowed down much during the recession and are still growing at a very rapid pace. Atlanta got hit pretty hard and it has taken a while to recover, but population growth did not fall as much as expected and is picking up again, as well as job growth. Phoenix, like Atlanta took a hit but may not be bouncing back as quickly. The inland empire seems to have a built-in growth engine as a cheaper option for people closer to Los Angeles.

Some great performers so far this decade are Austin, San Antonio, Raleigh, Charlotte, DC, Miami and NYC and LA.

[Brittain33]

Phoenix's economy has bounced back pretty well, while the Inland Empire is still struggling.

[memphis]

The hot states should continue to see growth because it costs too much to live anywhere nice.

[jimrtex]

Which metro areas will see the most population growth in the current decade?

For reference, here are the top 5 greatest gainers from 2000-2010

1) Houston/Sugarland/Baytown +1.23 million

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

The principal cities of a Metropolitan Statistical Area are the largest city, along with other large cities that have a net inflow of workers (more employed in the city than employee residents of the city).  The title incorporates the names of the largest principal cities.   Pasadena is the second largest city in the Houston area, and the only other than Houston with more than 100,000 persons, but it has more persons commuting out, than in.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Going by total numbers as in the OP, these are the top ten MSA's by growth between the 2010 estimates base and the 2012 estimates:

1. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (274,781)
2. New York-Newark-Jersey City (264,451)
3. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land (256,579)
4. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria (224,110)
5. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim (224,079)
6. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach (198,060)
7. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell (171,099)
8. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale (136,647)
9. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario (125,245)
10. San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward (120,169)

[angus]

1) Houston/Sugarland/Baytown +1.23 million
2) Dallas/ Ft Worth/Arlington +1.21 million
3) Atlanta/Sandy Springs/Marietta +1 million
4) Riverside/San Bernardino +983K
5)Phoenix/Mesa/Glendale +941K

Wow.  Go sunbelt.  I guess with the new trend, more electronic commuting and such, you could expect the suburban sprawl to continue in those areas.   Also, people are living longer and old people like the sun.  Eventually, ozone will be a concern, as well as photochemical smog, and, depending upon how quickly the climate changes, heat indices.  The trend go back to more temperate climates in the long term, but I wouldn't expect that to change between now and 2020. 

[Gass3268]

Going by total numbers as in the OP, these are the top ten MSA's by growth between the 2010 estimates base and the 2012 estimates:

1. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (274,781)
2. New York-Newark-Jersey City (264,451)
3. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land (256,579)
4. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria (224,110)
5. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim (224,079)
6. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach (198,060)
7. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell (171,099)
8. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale (136,647)
9. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario (125,245)
10. San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward (120,169)

Nice too see two non-Sun Belt areas (NYC and DC) that could potentially be in the top-10!

[traininthedistance]

1) Houston/Sugarland/Baytown +1.23 million
2) Dallas/ Ft Worth/Arlington +1.21 million
3) Atlanta/Sandy Springs/Marietta +1 million
4) Riverside/San Bernardino +983K
5)Phoenix/Mesa/Glendale +941K

Wow.  Go sunbelt.  I guess with the new trend, more electronic commuting and such, you could expect the suburban sprawl to continue in those areas.   Also, people are living longer and old people like the sun.  Eventually, ozone will be a concern, as well as photochemical smog, and, depending upon how quickly the climate changes, heat indices.  The trend go back to more temperate climates in the long term, but I wouldn't expect that to change between now and 2020. 

What's going to ding the Sunbelt first, actually, is water.  Not just Phoenix- fricking Atlanta has been having water supply problems already.

Climate change will be a problem but water shortages will slow the Sunbelt well before that threshold comes; and even when climate change does constrain Sunbelt cities the first way it will do so is not rising temperature, but the associated desertification, or in the case of Miami, inundation.

...

And, of course, what's keeping the Sunbelt going is less its inherent desirability, and more zoning policies geared toward cheap housing over other goals.  Which is an indication, perhaps, that the non-Sunbelt metros need to get their sh*t together and allow more construction/upzoning/densification.

[angus]

What's going to ding the Sunbelt first, actually, is water. 

yes, that's what I was thinking as I posted, although I was thinking more of the Western locales (Austin, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Phoenix, etc.) rather than Atlanta or Charlotte. 

I agree that we should look at our zoning laws Back East a little more if our goal isn't to become Des Moines or Detroit or whatever.  Well, okay, no one will become Detroit except Detroit, but certainly the lack of zoning laws in places like Houston has been a major draw, although I expect it will ultimately be a major setback.  Just this morning I heard an interview with an asthmatic woman who lives across the street from a big ozone generator.  Not surprisingly, she has three asthmatic children.

[Sbane]

The Riverside area will continue to grow due to commuters from OC. I have also read articles that say warehouse space is again in demand in the IE. Menifee and Lake Elsinore are seeing explosive growth. Otherwise, things have quieted down in the really far off areas such as Victorville, Hesperia, Banning and Beaumont.

[traininthedistance]

What's going to ding the Sunbelt first, actually, is water. 

yes, that's what I was thinking as I posted, although I was thinking more of the Western locales (Austin, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Phoenix, etc.) rather than Atlanta or Charlotte. 

I agree that we should look at our zoning laws Back East a little more if our goal isn't to become Des Moines or Detroit or whatever.  Well, okay, no one will become Detroit except Detroit, but certainly the lack of zoning laws in places like Houston has been a major draw, although I expect it will ultimately be a major setback.  Just this morning I heard an interview with an asthmatic woman who lives across the street from a big ozone generator.  Not surprisingly, she has three asthmatic children.

Well, yes, segregating heavy industry is the one thing that old-style Euclidean zoning did unambiguously get right.  

The risk is not that cities back East become like Detroit, the risk is that they become like San Francisco, actually, the land where $3000-a-month studio apartments are considered cheap.  Which is really really bad for not just renters and young people in these cities, but for people all across the country who would benefit from moving to these cities, but can't because they're so goddamn unaffordable.

[Ban my account ffs!]

What's going to ding the Sunbelt first, actually, is water.

yes, that's what I was thinking as I posted, although I was thinking more of the Western locales (Austin, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Phoenix, etc.) rather than Atlanta or Charlotte. 

I agree that we should look at our zoning laws Back East a little more if our goal isn't to become Des Moines or Detroit or whatever.  Well, okay, no one will become Detroit except Detroit, but certainly the lack of zoning laws in places like Houston has been a major draw, although I expect it will ultimately be a major setback.  Just this morning I heard an interview with an asthmatic woman who lives across the street from a big ozone generator.  Not surprisingly, she has three asthmatic children.

Well, yes, segregating heavy industry is the one thing that old-style Euclidean zoning did unambiguously get right. 

The risk is not that cities back East become like Detroit, the risk is that they become like San Francisco, actually, the land where $3000-a-month studio apartments are considered cheap.  Which is really really bad for not just renters and young people in these cities, but for people all across the country who would benefit from moving to these cities, but can't because they're so goddamn unaffordable.

This is why you need to be on the front lines in the battle against NIMBYs.  We can build densely... and do it so that people who like lower density and quiet neighborhoods can still have those.

[angus]

It's funny that you mention 3000 dollar a month apartments.  The most expensive, and the smallest, apartment I ever rented was just over 3000 per month.  It was on 119 street in Manhattan, between Morningside Drive and Amsterdam Avenue.  One bedroom.  One tiny bathroom.  So small that one had to turn sideways on the toilet in order to close the door.  As for the kitchen, fuggedaboutit.  One person, at most, could work in the kitchen.  Other than the bedroom, tiny bathroom, and tiny kitchen, there was one other room which served as both dining room and living room.  All that was $3125 per month.  And it was way back east.  (I'd already lived in the SF Bay area, and while I considered that expensive, it was cheap compared with NYC.)

Whatever.  I expect the Southwest to continue to grow not only because of its affordability, but also because of its climate, but I also expect this to eventually stop, mostly because of water, as you mention, and that was the main point of my comment about climate change.  I don't think that this will affect the 2020 census, however.  I think that water's safe there for another decade or so.  Once that hits, however, you'll probably see a very abrupt halt in migration toward the Southwest.  Hopefully, by that point, places like Lancaster, Pennsylvania and Worcester, Massachusetts and Syracuse, New york will have their shit together, in terms of public transit, job growth, and rental space, so Americans will have somewhere to go.  That isn't a foregone conclusion.