Spain General Discussion

[Nanwe]

Velasco and I had been talking of making threads for this and that but not a general discussion thread, but I think a common thread would be more useful than a series of disperse ones.

Plus, since Julio is back and Spanish politics are getting more an dmore interesting lately what with the PSOE a few idiocies away from a harakiri on itself over the Catalan question...

And plus, the growth of UPyD and IU might finally break the old two-party system.

In other news, today, the Asturian Parliament votes on the reform of the electoral law. The reform was one of the conditions that UPyD established to support the PSOE government but it seems that the PSOE has gone back on its word and it'll vote against the reform, although the PSOE everywhere is in such a mess that perhaps they'll vote for at the last minute. And if they vote against, will UPyD abandon their first taste of 'government'?

[Hash]

Latest polling in Catalonia is rather shocking as well. ERC in first, C's and ICV-EUiA moving ahead of the PSC and PP... and in Valencia polling indicates a majority for the left/regionalists!

Spanish politics is absolutely fascinating atm (it always is, but what we're seeing now is really fascinating). It's a pity we can't have snap elections nationally and in every region

[Nanwe]

Latest polling in Catalonia is rather shocking as well. ERC in first, C's and ICV-EUiA moving ahead of the PSC and PP... and in Valencia polling indicates a majority for the left/regionalists!

Spanish politics is absolutely fascinating atm (it always is, but what we're seeing now is really fascinating). It's a pity we can't have snap elections nationally and in every region

Yep. You refer to El Periódico's poll?

ERC ('left-wing' nationalism) 36-38
CiU (right-wing nationalism) 31-32
C's (vaguely centre-left constitutionalism) 16-18
PSC (nationalist and constitutionalist segments) 14-16
ICV (neutral, but support right to self-determination) 14-15
PP (right-wing constitutionalism)13-14
CUP (loony left nationalism) 6

Of course, all polls are biased to support whoever pays the newspaper. But I'd say that if this is true (and let's keep in mind that some PP voters tend to be ashamed to admit it) this is just the result of the radicalization of the politics in Catalonia and of the PSC's blandness and indecisiveness. They can't appeal to both natonalists and constitutionalists so they are losing them both. Massively.

The best part is that unless hostilities go down, Unió and Convergencia could go different ways and end their historic alliance. That could be very impressive.

Yesterday, Alfonso Guerra just proposed expelling PSC from PSOE and creating a new, clearly constitutionalist PSOE branch in Catalonia. That'd bring back many constitutionalists from Ciutadans.

Umm, yes, Valencia It's good. After so many years, it was about time for some political change. It's a pity that the PP didn't dislodge the corrupt Andalucian PSOE, but oh well.



Umm, UPyD won't support the Compromis nationalists but it would't support PP either (even if the propaganda of IU says UPyD is even worse than PP or PP lite). But it does look like PSOE-C-EUPV would have an absolute majority.

Is it possible the era of two parties is coming to an end? Maybe if we changed the electoral law at national level...

[Velasco]

Great idea, Nanwe. I'll start with some controversy on socialists and Catalonia, just to make the thread more entertaining

Yesterday, Alfonso Guerra just proposed expelling PSC from PSOE and creating a new, clearly constitutionalist PSOE branch in Catalonia. That'd bring back many constitutionalists from Ciutadans.

With the due respect, Alfonso Guerra is somewhat old-fashioned and, like many others in his party, doesn't understand what's happening with Catalonia or doesn't want to. Sadly, even the younger Carme Chacón seems anchored in 80s stereotypes as thinking that the nationalist feelings in Catalonia are a bourgeois issue, towards which the popular classes feel nonchalance. A socialist split in Catalonia might end in a disaster. It might be the disappearance of what would remain of PSC, with the leaders of the Catalanist faction migrating to other parties. Montserrat Tura is increasingly near ERC, who knows where valuable young people like Rocío Martínez-Sampere or Laia Bonet might end. The Catalan branch of PSOE would be irreversibly an irrelevant party, virtually without presence out of Barcelona Metropolitan Region -where now it's weaker than ever-, dominated by a  handful of mayors, without cadres and lacking of a proper speech, indistinguishable from the populism of Ciutadans and PP's do nothing policy. Finally, it might be the irreversible disappearance of an extremely fragile third way to solve the Catalan question. Waving up the sacred Constitution won't persuade Catalans from their desire of having their referendum. If the battle in Catalonia is fought between its proper nationalism and the Spanish one, that part of Spain will go away one day or another.

PSOE is proposing a federal reform of the constitution but, unfortunately, the party is burdened by the fear of being unpopular in the rest of Spain and its own centralist elements. Voting in favour of UPyD's motion in the Parliament, which establishes of wily form that "the right to decide belongs all the Spanish People" -it's hard to explain to foreigners, it's like referenda in Scotland and Quebec had to be voted by all British and Canadian- was -in my opinion and even if it seems odd-, a round strategical mistake. Worse still, the fact that PSC deputies were voting against might end in a sanction. Discipline of vote is an aberration in cases like this and the lack of criteria take away credibility from PSOE's federalism and proposals of reform. At this point, what can offer Spain to Catalonia to stay?

[Velasco]

El Periódico poll is truly depressing (I don't like C's and ERC doesn't make me happy) and very interesting as well. A sample of the state of the public opinion in a society that is mutating very fast. Complete disintegration of the traditional parties. Catalonia is the first place where the Old Order is dying.

[Nanwe]

With the due respect, Alfonso Guerra is somewhat old-fashioned and, like many others in his party, doesn't understand what's happening with Catalonia or doesn't want to.

Besides corrupt, but that doesn't mean he isn't right. What is happening in Catalonia is the result of years of CiU propaganda of "Espanya ons roba" and "Spaniards are lazy scum" and of Pujolist "Catalonia is special". The difference this time being that CiU has ignited it in a time when people are prone to radicalization and as a result, they have clearly lost the control of the situation. However, I'm certain that a) there isn't going to be a referendum and b) there isn't going to be any sort of independence.

Sadly, even the younger Carme Chacón seems anchored in 80s stereotypes as thinking that the nationalist feelings in Catalonia are a bourgeois issue, towards which the popular classes feel nonchalance. A socialist split in Catalonia might end in a disaster. It might be the disappearance of what would remain of PSC, with the leaders of the Catalanist faction migrating to other parties. Montserrat Tura is increasingly near ERC, who knows where valuable young people like Rocío Martínez-Sampere or Laia Bonet might end. The Catalan branch of PSOE would be irreversibly an irrelevant party, virtually without presence out of Barcelona Metropolitan Region -where now it's weaker than ever-, dominated by a  handful of mayors, without cadres and lacking of a proper speech, indistinguishable from the populism of Ciutadans and PP's do nothing policy. Finally, it might be the irreversible disappearance of an extremely fragile third way to solve the Catalan question. Waving up the sacred Constitution won't persuade Catalans from their desire of having their referendum. If the battle in Catalonia is fought between its proper nationalism and the Spanish one, that part of Spain will go away one day or another.

I don't see that as true. The PSC is already doomed. If you asked anyone how to say screwed in Spanish, they'd probably answer PSOE. But a more clearly centre-left constitutionalism would work to bring back voters from C's. So they might as well and try to survive until the economy gets better and Mas gets what he wants (moar money).

There is not third way. There is a need for a reform in the Spanish structure of the state to a functional federalism but what is not acceptable and it is not tolerable is to give in to the nationalists. Because when you play with cheaters, you always lose. And if the Generalitat is good at something, that is cheating. The reform of the Constitution needs to create a mechanism to impose fines on the CCAA that fail to comply with judicial decisions. Catalonia has gotten away with tons of illegal stuff because no one forces them to comply with legislation as basic as to defend the average Joe.

The so-called third way is akin to the Ibarretxe plan and it's pure and simple nonsense, just like the UK's position in the EU. They want the good but not the bad, well, they'll have to choose.

I am not opposing a referendum, for all I care, Catalans can vote and gain independence and live in Pujolistan but I resent and I think it shows the way that the Catalan government expresses itself.

The so-called third way is akin to the Ibarretxe plan and it's pure and simple nonsense, just like the UK's position in the EU. They want the good but not the bad, well, they'll have to choose.

PSOE is proposing a federal reform of the constitution but, unfortunately, the party is burdened by the fear of being unpopular in the rest of Spain and its own centralist elements.

As I've said before I agree with some of their proposals, not the one about decentralizing the judicial system. But this is the PSOE, they are all cool and dandy in opposition, then they come to power and reveal themselves as either Machiavellian (Gonzalez) or naïve (ZP).

Voting in favour of UPyD's motion in the Parliament, which establishes of wily form that "the right to decide belongs all the Spanish People" -it's hard to explain to foreigners, it's like referenda in Scotland and Quebec had to be voted by all British and Canadian- was -in my opinion and even if it seems odd-, a round strategical mistake.

It might have been, but it's simply natural to uphold the law and a sign of how Soraya Rodriguex is taking the PSOE to the right.

The law is to be followed, especially the Constitution. If it needs to be changed, it has to, but until then, the law is the law. I know this position is sort of polemic in some circles, but I don't care.

Worse still, the fact that PSC deputies were voting against might end in a sanction. Discipline of vote is an aberration in cases like this and the lack of criteria take away credibility from PSOE's federalism and proposals of reform. At this point, what can offer Spain to Catalonia to stay?

To Catalonia there's nothing to offer. Catalonia doesn't exist, it's a mental construct. Catalans on the other hand can be offered many things: Political stability, a larger market, a more independent judiciary system, the euro, membership in the EU and a check on CiU and ERC's government's tendency to do illegal things.


To the second post, C's is a decent party, a response to the PP's limited social appeal and the PSC's collapse due to their ambiguity. ERC on the hand I despise. They could kill their own mothers if someone promised them in return an independent Catalonia. They aren't left-wing, they are just nationalistic, and anything and everything can be sacrificed in exchange. That level of fundamentalism is sickening.

EDIT: Umm, this post came off as angry. Well, I suppose I'm indignant with situation.

[Velasco]

With the due respect, Alfonso Guerra is somewhat old-fashioned and, like many others in his party, doesn't understand what's happening with Catalonia or doesn't want to.

Besides corrupt, but that doesn't mean he is right. What is happening in Catalonia is the result of years of CiU propaganda of "Espanya ons roba" and "Spaniards are lazy scum" and of Pujolist "Catalonia is special". The difference this time being that CiU has ignited it in a time when people are prone to radicalization and as a result, they have clearly lost the control of the situation. However, I'm certain that a) there isn't going to be a referendum and b) there isn't going to be any sort of independence.

Well, your reply is an example of what many people outside Catalonia thinks about what's going on. I'm not going to defend the traditional Catalan nationalism which CiU represents, but anyway. It's true that there's some arrogance in certain Catalans (though I don't think that's the general attitude) and, certainly, the "Espanya nos roba" slogan is pure demagoguery. However, it's a huge oversimplification claiming that nationalist propaganda is the origin of the problem. That "radicalization" is the result of multiple factors: social changes, evolution of the Catalan nationalism from reformist stances to sovereignism, a huge feeling among Catalans of all tendencies of being misunderstood and battered by Spain... Don't forget that in parallel with what you call "years of CiU propaganda", the Spanish right (PP and friendly media) has launched anti-Catalan campaigns in the rest of Spain. Also, the sentence of the (partisan) Constitutional Court on the Catalan Statute angered many people. Dissafection is the natural consequence.

Why do you take for granted that there isn't going to be a referendum nor Catalan independence? I don't have a crystal ball, but for sure if a massive portion of Catalan wants a referendum and Spain doesn't give it to them, resentment will grow. When one of the two in a couple wants to go, the marriage usally ends in divorce.

By the way, Alfonso Guerra is not the corrupt. It was his brother.

I don't see that as true. The PSC is already doomed. If you asked anyone how to say screwed in Spanish, they'd probably answer PSOE. But a more clearly centre-left constitutionalism would work to bring back voters from C's. So they might as well and try to survive until the economy gets better and Mas gets what he wants (moar money).

There is not third way. There is a need for a reform in the Spanish structure of the state to a functional federalism but what is not acceptable and it is not tolerable is to give in to the nationalists. Because when you play with cheaters, you always lose. And if the Generalitat is good at something, that is cheating. The reform of the Constitution needs to create a mechanism to impose fines on the CCAA that fail to comply with judicial decisions. Catalonia has gotten away with tons of illegal stuff because no one forces them to comply with legislation as basic as to defend the average Joe.

The so-called third way is akin to the Ibarretxe plan and it's pure and simple nonsense, just like the UK's position in the EU. They want the good but not the bad, well, they'll have to choose.

PSC may be doomed. Anyway, that center left "Constitutionalism" wouldn't suppose any difference with PP and the Rivera troupe in the eyes of center left Catalanists (note that it's not exactly the same that "nationalists", even when there's an overlap). A party like that will be marginal in Catalan politics. Of course, there's a need to reform the territorial structure in a functional way, but it won't work if you don't consider the regional identities (I mean Catalan and Basque, but not only). "When you play with cheeters" is another example of what is going wrong. If you want to keep the country united, you'll have to consider two facts:

a) Spain is diverse and there are national/regional identities inside her.
b) Peripheral nationalism exists and it's not possible to marginalize it. You are condemned to negotiate, perhaps a to a permanent negotiation.

The pretension of that difuse Third Way is looking for the solution of the sudoku. Supporters of Catalan independence and Spain's centralism deny that possibility. It goes in the interest of the most fervent partidaries of independence the failure of an alternative way. I don't understand that comparison with the Ibarretxe plan. Some well intentioned proposals may have flaws, but I don't see the connection between PSC and the former lehendakari, to give an example.

It might have been, but it's simply natural to uphold the law and a sign of how Soraya Rodriguex is taking the PSOE to the right.

The law is to be followed, especially the Constitution. If it needs to be changed, it has to, but until then, the law is the law. I know this position is sort of polemic in some circles, but I don't care.

That's right. You have to observe the law. Anyway, that's not the point of the UPyD motion in the Congress. In fact, you don't need to approve a text that repeats what Spain's Constitution says on national sovereignty. That motion was simply a nationalist proclaim and Rubalcaba ceded before Guerra, Chaves and other PSOE "constitutionalists". It wasn't Soraya.

Btw, don't worry if we have different opinions on this and other issues.

[Nanwe]

Well, your reply is an example of what many people outside Catalonia thinks about what's going on. I'm not going to defend the traditional Catalan nationalism which CiU represents, but anyway. It's true that there's some arrogance in certain Catalans (though I don't think that's the general attitude) and, certainly, the "Espanya nos roba" slogan is pure demagoguery. However, it's a huge oversimplification claiming that nationalist propaganda is the origin of the problem. That "radicalization" is the result of multiple factors: social changes, evolution of the Catalan nationalism from reformist stances to sovereignism, a huge feeling among Catalans of all tendencies of being misunderstood and battered by Spain... Don't forget that in parallel with what you call "years of CiU propaganda", the Spanish right (PP and friendly media) has launched anti-Catalan campaigns in the rest of Spain. Also, the sentence of the (partisan) Constitutional Court on the Catalan Statute angered many people. Dissafection is the natural consequence.

I know, heck my parents participated in that bullsh**t about not buying Catalan products when the Estatut controversy. But the things is that the Catalans, even if they feel that way (which ofc is what counts), aren't misunderstood or ignored or anything. That's mostly empty talk.

TBH, I can't remember all the fuzz about the Estatut so I don't remember, but there was polemic stuff about language use and right to determination or what not? I just don't think teaching integrally in Catalan is tolerable, besides not legal.

I still fail to grasp the desaffection. Catalans aren't oppressed, and while the economic situation is bad, it's the fault of their governments (tripartito mostly) not of the rest of the country. To me it looks like the rest of Spain is a scapegoat for their troubles.

Why do you take for granted that there isn't going to be a referendum nor Catalan independence? I don't have a crystal ball, but for sure if a massive portion of Catalan wants a referendum and Spain doesn't give it to them, resentment will grow. When one of the two in a couple wants to go, the marriage usally ends in divorce.

Well, I'm of the opinion that CiU is using the referendum as a tool. It'd be best for CiU to be denied the referendum as to still have it as a tool for future years about how Spain was evil and didn't let it happen. I know that a large part of the people want it, but keep in mind that most Spaniards have a centralist mentality, that's a) and b) that the majority of the political class is pretty much self-absorbed.

Why do I assess it this way? CiU seems to be on the break of dissolving due to internal differences between Duran i Lleida (Unió) and Mas (CDC), the PP is clearly but slowly moving towards finding a common position with Mas and he has also toned down his rhetoric and even has started to dismiss the issue of the referendum.

Besides, they won't go to a referendum unless they would be certain that their most favoured result happens, whether it is losing by a large margin or winning by a large margin. Right now, iirc, the majority of people polled have only become more souveranist recently and are considerably less so if Catalonia were to leave the EU (which is what would happen if they left Spain). I am pretty sure that while support for the referendum might remain high in the future, support for independence is going to go down.

By the way, Alfonso Guerra is not the corrupt. It was his brother.

I know that, the case Guerra and what not. But it's not like Gonzalez's 12 years weren't the most corrupt period in our recent history (post-Franco, obviously)

PSC may be doomed. Anyway, that center left "Constitutionalism" wouldn't suppose any difference with PP and the Rivera troupe in the eyes of center left Catalanists (note that it's not exactly the same that "nationalists", even when there's an overlap). A party like that will be marginal in Catalan politics. Of course, there's a need to reform the territorial structure in a functional way, but it won't work if you don't consider the regional identities (I mean Catalan and Basque, but not only). "When you play with cheeters" is another example of what is going wrong. If you want to keep the country united, you'll have to consider two facts:

a) Spain is diverse and there are national/regional identities inside her.
b) Peripheral nationalism exists and it's not possible to marginalize it. You are condemned to negotiate, perhaps a to a permanent negotiation.

The pretension of that difuse Third Way is looking for the solution of the sudoku. Supporters of Catalan independence and Spain's centralism deny that possibility. It goes in the interest of the most fervent partidaries of independence the failure of an alternative way. I don't understand that comparison with the Ibarretxe plan. Some well intentioned proposals may have flaws, but I don't see the connection between PSC and the former lehendakari, to give an example.

I actually think that it could. Many of these people, who lives in Barcelona's metropolitan area and are sons of immigrants and now vote C's because they don't feel at home in the PSC anymore could very well return. Of course, the last time PSOE tried to go into Catalonia without the PSC (was it 1977?) it ended up badly...

What do you mean by 'consider the regional identities'? If you mean what I think it does, a federal structure with clear-cut structures would be good. To me, Spain is clearly a plurinational state with further nacionalidades inside Castille's nationhood of sorts (doesn't help the provincialism of most Castillians, the patria chica and what not) but one of equals. Catalonia or the Basques should not be special, so the Basque's concierto should most likely be given to all CCAA and we should probably absorb some of the smaller CCAA into the bigger ones, although that's too courageous a decision.

But the regions, Catalonia too, have to follow the law, even their own law, in many cases the Generalitat ignores what the TSJC dictates so... I see a lot of fanaticism and lack fo respect for the imperio de la ley in the Generalitat.

That's right. You have to observe the law. Anyway, that's not the point of the UPyD motion in the Congress. In fact, you don't need to approve a text that repeats what Spain's Constitution says on national sovereignty. That motion was simply a nationalist proclaim and Rubalcaba ceded before Guerra, Chaves and other PSOE "constitutionalists". It wasn't Soraya.

Actually: check this. Sorry it was Soraya Díez. I get confused with all the Sorayas...

"Hay que enviar un mensaje claro a toda España de que estamos con la Constitución”.

All in all, with this situation I suffer a duality, on the one hand the possibility of secession worries me a lot. On the other hand, God, how I'm enjoying seeing the PP and PSOE crumble away piece by piece.

----

On other news, UPyD has ended its support for the PSOE after they voted against the proposed reform of the electoral law in the region. Now PSOE-IU have a minority and 22 seats, the same as PP-Foro Asturias. Coalition politics at its best. Who'd have thought this thing could happen in Spain?

Article here: El País

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't have much (anything!) to add, but this is a really fascinating discussion

[Velasco]

even if they feel that way (which ofc is what counts), aren't misunderstood or ignored or anything. That's mostly empty talk.

It's pretty obvious when you talk with Catalans or when you go there. It's not empty talk at all. Many Spaniards know nothing about how Catalans are and judge them on stereotypes: "Catalans are stingy", "Catalans are cadging" (when conversation is about Catalan demands). There's a big incomprehension and this factor is arguably in the origin of the problem. Furthermore, even when claims like "Spain is stealing us" are demagogic, there's a grain of truth in them as regional financing is unfavourable to Catalonia.

Well, I'm of the opinion that CiU is using the referendum as a tool. It'd be best for CiU to be denied the referendum as to still have it as a tool for future years about how Spain was evil and didn't let it happen. I know that a large part of the people want it, but keep in mind that most Spaniards have a centralist mentality, that's a) and b) that the majority of the political class is pretty much self-absorbed.

Why do I assess it this way? CiU seems to be on the break of dissolving due to internal differences between Duran i Lleida (Unió) and Mas (CDC), the PP is clearly but slowly moving towards finding a common position with Mas and he has also toned down his rhetoric and even has started to dismiss the issue of the referendum.

Besides, they won't go to a referendum unless they would be certain that their most favoured result happens, whether it is losing by a large margin or winning by a large margin. Right now, iirc, the majority of people polled have only become more souveranist recently and are considerably less so if Catalonia were to leave the EU (which is what would happen if they left Spain). I am pretty sure that while support for the referendum might remain high in the future, support for independence is going to go down.

Even if Mas wanted to go back, the pressure of Catalan society might force him to go ahead. Nowadays CiU governs in minority with ERC confidence and supply. Every time Artur Mas insinuates a delay in the common sovereignist agenda, ERC comes behind to make clear that the calendar is non negotiable. Apparently there were contacts between Rajoy and Mas under the table. By the moment, nothing has changed. PP and CDC maintain their respective nationalist stances, the first under the "constitutionalist" camouflage. The collision course is far away from being stopped. As for Durán, if Mas is in a weak position, it's still worse for the UDC leader. Durán has the support of some businessmen, but he's very unpopular and CDC militancy hates him for being a traitor. Furthermore, if CiU breaks down, it will be ERC who is going to gather the pieces together. Polls say they might be the major partners in a future nationalist government.

I'd like to think that letting things go their course, the "independence soufflé" will go down again. However, that theory has been denied by reality several times. Remember the last Diada: that impressive human chain across Catalonia.

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That assertion has been denied by Bárcenas, Francisco Camps, Jaume Matas, the Duke of Palma (the infamous Urdangarín) and some other examples. Not to mention Jesús Gil and Marbella. Guerra's brother and the good Roldán turn pale in comparison. The several corruption scandals in the González era lack of the magnitude of the Gürtel and Bárcenas cases. Corruption in Costa del Sol, Valencia and other places was a product of the real estate bubble, which started by 1998, under the Aznar administration.

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Ah, the two Sorayas ... But the news that you linked mentions Susana Díaz, the woman that replaced Griñán as Andalusian PM. Notice that Guerra and Chaves are from Andalusia, the main power base for PSOE. I've read there this sentence by some socialist deputies: " How is it possible that that we could think of abstaining in an offer that the only thing that it does is to defend the Constitution?" I think many socialists have fallen in the rhetoric trap of Rosa Díez. UPyD leader stated that she didn't want to hurt PSOE. I can't believe in her innocence. Everybody in Catalonia understands this as a proclaim of Spanish nationalism. For me it's troublesome, to say the least.

[Nanwe]

It's pretty obvious when you talk with Catalans or when you go there. It's not empty talk at all. Many Spaniards know nothing about how Catalans are and judge them on stereotypes: "Catalans are stingy", "Catalans are cadging" (when conversation is about Catalan demands). There's a big incomprehension and this factor is arguably in the origin of the problem. Furthermore, even when claims like "Spain is stealing us" are demagogic, there's a grain of truth in them as regional financing is unfavourable to Catalonia.

To be honest, the last time I went to Catalonia I was 6 or so, so I couldn't say. But the thing to me, is that culturally, Catalonia is probably closer to Valladolid or Madrid or Burgos than Andalucia, so besides the language barrier, I've never seen such large differences. Using stereotypes is wrong, but Catalans also use them and tend to be the kind of "Spaniards are lazy".

Of course the regional financing system is weird, but back in 1996 when the PP negotiated with PNV and CiU the concierto in exchange for voting in Aznar's favour, the PP offered the same deal to the Catalan government and they rejected it. The system is just messed up, it makes no sense for rich CCAA like the Basques and Navarrese gain money from the funds. Rich regions, should give money to the poorer ones. Even the Catalan government recognizes that, but some of the arguments of the Catalans, like limiting the movement of funds never being more than a 4% (of the regional GDP? I don't remember 4% of what atm), are more limited that those in the German federal system. And while people can accept a federal Spain, a confederal model is not so easy to accept, especially when the Catalans are being seen as selfish and capricious. The selfish part I understand it's common to all, it's not like Madrid's government isn't being dickish. But the capricious part is much more clear, but I suppose that it's the result of how there is no limit to the competences CCAA can gain.

I think that from now on, the government should try to be more appealing to Catalans, try to make them see that Spain is there for them too and that the politicians care. Back in the 70s, the national leaders used Catalan in Catalonia and even when Aznar was said to use Catalan in private, feeling were positive. So I suppose that even aesthetic changes of this sort could help a lot to make Catalans feel at home in the madre patria (nationalist expression indeed, but I couldn't resist )

Even if Mas wanted to go back, the pressure of Catalan society might force him to go ahead. Nowadays CiU governs in minority with ERC confidence and supply. Every time Artur Mas insinuates a delay in the common sovereignist agenda, ERC comes behind to make clear that the calendar is non negotiable. Apparently there were contacts between Rajoy and Mas under the table. By the moment, nothing has changed. PP and CDC maintain their respective nationalist stances, the first under the "constitutionalist" camouflage. The collision course is far away from being stopped. As for Durán, if Mas is in a weak position, it's still worse for the UDC leader. Durán has the support of some businessmen, but he's very unpopular and CDC militancy hates him for being a traitor. Furthermore, if CiU breaks down, it will be ERC who is going to gather the pieces together. Polls say they might be the major partners in a future nationalist government.`

It's true that for the moment nothing has changed, but I do think that slowly everyone is coming together. The charade part of everyone speaking loudly to appease their voters is coming to an end and now it's time to negotiate and sit down.

But it's true that ERC is the true problem here, as the nationalist positions have hardened, ERC, as the most radical nationalist party than isn't entirely nuts (unlike SI or CUP) it's going to grow. But since according to most polls and research a large motivation is economic, if an agreement between Rajoy and Mas is achieved, and I'm sure it will whether by action or inaction (Rajoy being Rajoy, a mix of both).

CiU is more a part of the big business than even the PP and the Catalan entrepreneurial class has already spoken against independence, that is going to be very important to keep in mind, CiU will have to give in if they want to continue with their support, since their social policy (cuts that make the PP look like IU) and corruption cases (Pallerols,  ITV, Palau, Clotilde, Adigsa cases) are eroding their popular support.

Duran is not a traitor though. He represents Unió, and Unió is too conservative to want independence. Unió is probably the most proper conservative party of Spain because the PP is always mixing right-wing populism, neoliberalism, Thatcherism, nationalism and Christian democracy in a weird mishmash to appeal to both the urban middle classes and the conservative segments of society.

I'd like to think that letting things go their course, the "independence soufflé" will go down again. However, that theory has been denied by reality several times. Remember the last Diada: that impressive human chain across Catalonia.

The problem here is that the Catalans against independence have only very rarely spoke up, for fear of being signalled out as Francoists or españolistas. While I don't deny the large support for independence, the Catalan is, according to polls, very divided on this issue and it doesn't help that position favourable to Spain are still seen poorly by society, and not just the Catalan society.

That assertion has been denied by Bárcenas, Francisco Camps, Jaume Matas, the Duke of Palma (the infamous Urdangarín) and some other examples. Not to mention Jesús Gil and Marbella. Guerra's brother and the good Roldán turn pale in comparison. The several corruption scandals in the González era lack of the magnitude of the Gürtel and Bárcenas cases. Corruption in Costa del Sol, Valencia and other places was a product of the real estate bubble, which started by 1998, under the Aznar administration.

Sorry, I meant to say administration. While it's obvious that corruption became (more) commonplace during 1998-2007 at a regional and local level, I would argue that Aznar's government reduced the corruption at the national level of the administration. Obviously the party is corrupt, but they did reduce the corruption in the civil service. The corruption stemming from the 1998 reforms can't be entirely be attributed to the PP, in part because many city councils and regions were governed by the PSOE and because the PSOE did nothing to change the situation after 2004. It's not like the PSOE is innocent either and the case of the EREs in Andalucia just show how corrupt they are too.

Ah, the two Sorayas ... But the news that you linked mentions Susana Díaz, the woman that replaced Griñán as Andalusian PM. Notice that Guerra and Chaves are from Andalusia, the main power base for PSOE. I've read there this sentence by some socialist deputies: " How is it possible that that we could think of abstaining in an offer that the only thing that it does is to defend the Constitution?" I think many socialists have fallen in the rhetoric trap of Rosa Díez. UPyD leader stated that she didn't want to hurt PSOE. I can't believe in her innocence. Everybody in Catalonia understands this as a proclaim of Spanish nationalism. For me it's troublesome, to say the least.

Well the PSOE has to walk a very tight rope, PSC and PSOE-A are the main federations, especially now that the PSOE is pretty much outside of government in the rest of Spain and it isn't too likely they'll get into any government for a while. Andalucia is clearly against referendum or concessions, they need the money and since most Catalan attacks have gone against Andalucians it's understandable they are less inclined to be nice. Mas said publicly that no one understands Andalucians when they speak. That really is offensive, it's one of those things you don't say, even if you think it.

I think we need the opinion of an insider, so where's Julio when you need a PSOE apparatchik () to be to give his opinion and give us the perspective from inside Madrid' PSOE? It's the regional federation to be most affected by UPyD's meteoric rise in the polls.

Well, you know I'm a UPyD supporter and probably a member if I were living in Spain. But of course she's not innocent, if she were, she wouldn't be in politics, she'd be working for Caritas. This was clearly a way to increase division in the PSOE and make the party more appealing to people unhappy with the PSOE's ambiguous, even contradictory policy in this field, who are not so willing to give in to Catalan demands but who would most likely never, or only if very hardly pressed, vote PP.

One problem with your assessment, I'd think, is that you are identifying Catalonia as a victim that needs to be appeased. But, I think that here there is not victim, and no appeasement, what is needed is a radical change in Spain, and Catalonia is a part of Spain, one that finally and at least for the next 20 years or so can placate the constantly re-emerging identity debate. I need to write down a series of proposals I have in my head for said restructuring, but that takes time.

On a different topic, I have decided to restart my idea for the whole Spain including Portugal thing once again, but this time more professionally, so I'd love some help.

[Velasco]

One problem with your assessment, I'd think, is that you are identifying Catalonia as a victim that needs to be appeased. But, I think that here there is not victim, and no appeasement, what is needed is a radical change in Spain, and Catalonia is a part of Spain, one that finally and at least for the next 20 years or so can placate the constantly re-emerging identity debate. I need to write down a series of proposals I have in my head for said restructuring, but that takes time.

On a different topic, I have decided to restart my idea for the whole Spain including Portugal thing once again, but this time more professionally, so I'd love some help.

Absolutely not. I don't think Catalans are victims. However, they have been badly treated by some in the rest of Spain. What most of them reclaim is more respect and understanding. Even our hard right Thatcherite Esperanza Aguirre cynically admits that we need to take a more charitable view of Catalan people. I can't imagine greater hypocrisy. Besides the nation's main joker, Cristóbal Montoro, states that we need to be "tactful" on the Catalan question. At least Rosa Díez is more honest expressing her views, such as peripheral nationalists are "cheaters" and attempts of approaching stances with them are "appeasement". I don't believe in the moral superiority of Spain's nationalism/constitutionalism. As I said above, it will never be possible a change of the territorial structure without taking into account certain singularities of some parts of Spain. What UPyD is proposing on the subject is basically a complete uniformity. It won't work in a country heterogeneous in nature. It will have to be some asymmetry. Some regions will never accept anything by imposition or a cut in their autonomy and competences.

Can you give details of your project about Spain and Portugal?

[Nanwe]

One problem with your assessment, I'd think, is that you are identifying Catalonia as a victim that needs to be appeased. But, I think that here there is not victim, and no appeasement, what is needed is a radical change in Spain, and Catalonia is a part of Spain, one that finally and at least for the next 20 years or so can placate the constantly re-emerging identity debate. I need to write down a series of proposals I have in my head for said restructuring, but that takes time.

On a different topic, I have decided to restart my idea for the whole Spain including Portugal thing once again, but this time more professionally, so I'd love some help.

Absolutely not. I don't think Catalans are victims. However, they have been badly treated by some in the rest of Spain. What most of them reclaim is more respect and comprehension. Even our hard right Thatcherite Esperanza Aguirre cynically admits that we need to take a more charitable view of Catalan people. I can't imagine greater hypocrisy. Besides the nation's main joker, Cristóbal Montoro, states that we need to be "tactful" on the Catalan question. At least Rosa Díez is more honest expressing her views, such as peripheral nationalists are "cheaters" and attempts of approaching stances with them are "appeasement". I don't believe in the moral superiority of Spain's nationalism/constitutionalism. As I said above, it will never be possible a change of the territorial structure without taking into account certain singularities of some parts of Spain. What UPyD proposes on the subject is basically a complete uniformity. It won't work in a country heterogeneous in nature. It had to be some assymetry. Some regions will never accept anything by imposition or a cut in their autonomy and competences.

Can you give details of your project about Spain and Portugal?

Alright, I got that feeling because you differentiated in your last post between Catalans and Spaniards and that seemed strange to me. Actually the badly treated aspect is something I'm not too certain about, could you provide some examples? (I'm serious, not being sarcastic).

I can understand that Spain is heterogeneous but the problem is that the current system is unfair to all because of undue influence by CiU and PNV in government. The thing is that from my point of view, there is no need for special treatment, because no matter the language, everyone is Spanish, and while this is some sort of non-Castillian-based vision (even though it's hard to be more castellano than me )of Spanish identity that most people don't share, it's not a bad one. It's time to redefine being Spanish, 1/5 of all Spaniards speak Catalan, into a flexible and accepting identity not castrated by the phantom of Franco.

That's where I disagree with UPyD I'm fine with retaining education and healthcare in the regional level, I think that under the subsidiarity principle (one the best products of Catholic political thinking) education is important to be autonomous, non-comprehensive and close to the local people as it serves best to adapt itself to a community's needs. Not so sure about healthcare, that might be best run at a national level... I just want people to respect the law and for the state to have coercive powers if they fail to.

Perhaps adding some sort of mechanism in the Constitution that while allowing no further extension of powers to the regions (not like there's much more to delegate or devolve), it could allow regions, through referendums, to return powers to Madrid.

And meh, Aguirre is just trying to play high politics because she knows that Rajoy is crumbling and she has wanted his post since before she was born. There's indeed a need to be tactful, but do keep in mind that UPyD appeared in the Basque Country and as a result it is a party much more involved in the identity conflict than either PP or PSOE or IU.

About the whole thing with Spain and Portugal I'll PM you.

[Velasco]

Alright, Nanwe.

Changing topic. Aznar publishes his memories. He tells that he entrusted CNI (Spain's intelligence agency) a report on the 2004 Madrid train bombings, which wasn't conclusive on the responsibility for the terrorist attack. Basically, CNI's director Jorge Dezcallar wrote that Spanish intelligence was clueless and didn't detect signals of the authorship. Given that ETA terrorist group had plenty of infiltrated agents, it would have been strange that CNI had not could detect anything from that side. By that time Aznar and his Interior minister, Ángel Acebes, sustained that ETA was behind the massacre. Later on, once Zapatero was in office, a media campaign was launched to question the judicial investigation. About Zapatero's investiture speech says the following:  "Investiture. Zapatero's speech in a Zapatero's tone of which already one sees the bottom: dialog, more dialog, only dialog, opposite to my omnipotence and authoritarianism". Opening Pandora's box:  " He opens all the problems without closing any: constitutional reform, reform of the statutes, antiterrorist setback. Clear attitude of trying to isolate the PP: all against the PP. About economy, he doesn't speak; homosexual marriage, equality, etc. I overturn in foreign policy. The retreat of the troops in Iraq is not mentioned ". On Zapatero's talante (good mood, liberal-minded): it's a "new silliness" of the progressive mentality of the political correctness. I adore this man

[Nanwe]

Alright, Nanwe.

Changing topic. Aznar publishes his memories. He tells that he entrusted CNI (Spain's intelligence agency) a report on the 2004 Madrid train bombings, which wasn't conclusive on the responsibility for the terrorist attack. Basically, CNI's director Jorge Dezcallar wrote that Spanish intelligence was clueless and didn't detect signals of the authorship. Given that ETA terrorist group had plenty of infiltrated agents, it would have been strange that CNI had not could detect anything from that side. By that time Aznar and his Interior minister, Ángel Acebes, sustained that ETA was behind the massacre. Later on, once Zapatero was in office, a media campaign was launched to question the judicial investigation. About Zapatero's investiture speech says the following:  "Investiture. Zapatero's speech in a Zapatero's tone of which already one sees the bottom: dialog, more dialog, only dialog, opposite to my omnipotence and authoritarianism". Opening Pandora's box:  " He opens all the problems without closing any: constitutional reform, reform of the statutes, antiterrorist setback. Clear attitude of trying to isolate the PP: all against the PP. About economy, he doesn't speak; homosexual marriage, equality, etc. I overturn in foreign policy. The retreat of the troops in Iraq is not mentioned ". On Zapatero's talante (good mood, liberal-minded): it's a "new silliness" of the progressive mentality of the political correctness. I adore this man

Aznar is right in that Zapatero did isolate the PP, but it's not like the PP weren't a bunch of sore losers that whenever ZP said yes, they said no, and if he said no they said yes. It became a reflex for them.

Zapatero did open the Pandora box to a point, but it's not like Aznar hadn't done it in 1996 either, so that's typical PP hypocrisy when it comes to dealing with the nationalists.

In all other fronts, that's silly. The CNI is incompetent, but that much...?

[Famous Mortimer]

Can someone give a summary of the last PSOE leadership race?

[Nanwe]

Can someone give a summary of the last PSOE leadership race?

The last one? Well, back in 2000, with the 35th Congress, there were three candidates: Zapatero, sort of Third Way, social liberalism (also supported by guerristas, the left-wing of the establishment); José Bono, socially more conservative and the establishment candidate (supported by Chaves and the felipistas) and Rosa Díez, now leader of UpyD.

This article is really good: in Spanish though.

In 2011, there was this idea (read: propaganda) to have a race between Rubalcaba and Chacón but she decided to retire from the possibility of entering the race and Rubalcaba simply was hailed as new leader.

Mind you, this is better than the PP though, they don't even bother with sham conventions

[Velasco]

Catalonia again. Interesting poll in El País today.

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2013/11/02/catalunya/1383418112_808082.html

31% wants independence; 17% wants the statu quo (current autonomic state with the same competences); 40% wants the "third way" (whatever it means) and more devolution.

*The "third way" has support among moderate catalanist voters, but it has different meanings. PSC identifies it with a federal reform of the Constitution, whereas moderates in CiU favour a confederation (more or less, the Durán i Lleida thesis). According to the poll, it has a great support among PSC (65%) and ICV (44%) voters and among a sizable portion among Cs (39%), CiU (36%) and PP's (31%). Only 18% among ERC voters.

El País asserts in its editorial: "the third way goes forward".

If the referendum question is "yes" or no" to independence, secession wins 46%/42%. In the assumption that independence supposes that Catalonia will be out of the EU 48 % would vote against.

ERC and CDC support a referendum including only the "yes" and "no" options. However, there's controversy on the inclusion of a third option, which create tension inside the CiU coalition. PP is confident that these divisions will abort the sovereignist process, but CiU warns that this benefits ERC and it will be more difficult for the Spanish government to negotiate with a Catalan administration presided by Oriol Junqueras.

Vote intention:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/11/01/media/1383329614_146328.html

Catalan elections: ERC 23.2% (37 seats); CiU 19.4% (32); C's 15.3% (21); ICV-EUiA 10.5% (14); PSC 8.4% (13); PP 7.5% (12); CUP 4.9% (6).

General elections: CiU 21.5% (14 seats); PSC 17.8% (9); ERC 16.5% ( 8 ); PP 15.5% (9); ICV-EUiA 12.1% (5); C's 6.4% (2).

(I think there's a thread somewhere about the last socialist race between Rubalcaba and Chacón).

[Peeperkorn]

Secession will not happen.


Anyway, I'm kind of surprised that Rajoydi survived the sobre-sueldos scandal. It was something that you could expect from inherent corrupt countries as Argentina, but not Europe.

PSOE is still the lesser evil.

[Nanwe]

Secession will not happen.


Anyway, I'm kind of surprised that Rajoydi survived the sobre-sueldos scandal. It was something that you could expect from inherent corrupt countries as Argentina, but not Europe.

PSOE is still the lesser evil.

PSOE is just as bad and Andalucia is the perfect example:the  PER designed to create clients among the rural population, the huge ERE scandal in which funds for fake early retirements were used to pay party members and their families and even for party members to use drugs...

Surprised? He's a PP politician. It's a party designed around the leader and which allows no internal dissent, you are either in or out.

[Velasco]

Sadly, corruption scandals rarely affected elections. Francisco Camps in Valencia is a clear example. Nowadays crisis makes corruption more intolerable. PP support is declining in the polls, but its voters mainly go to abstention instead of to other parties.

As for the Rural Employment plan (PER) in Andalusia, such claims of clientelisc practices are truly old. Furthermore, they are irritating for some Andalusians, depicted by certain media in Madrid as brainless subsidy collectors. PER was designed to relieve the situation of the laborers in the Andalusian countryside. They are thousands of persons who the half of the year are employed by several landowners in the harvest time. Often they move to other regions or even to France. The other half of the year they don't have employment. You have at least three options: you can withdraw the subsidy from the laborers and they will starve, you can maintain it in order that they survive or you must collectivize the land

Also, the ERE scandal is sickening, but it's confined to Andalusia. Nothing to do with the colossal magnitude of the Bárcenas/Gürtel scandals, which affect PP national structure. If I have to weigh corruption in both parties, it's clear which one is the lesser evil.

[Nanwe]

You have at least three options: you can withdraw the subsidy from the laborers and they will starve, you can maintain it in order that they survive or you must collectivize the land

Or a fourth and my preferred idea. Split the latifundii into smaller plots and create a program for investment to develop a high-value agriculture with a double aim: Take voters away from the PSOE () and increase the wealth in southern Spain, à la Almería. It's like going back to the 20s-30s plans of agrarian reform.

I have wondered though why corruption has never been a bigger issue. I suppose that because most people tended to benefit prior to the crisis to the government's neglect in some areas?

[Peeperkorn]

I know all the corruption issues of the Andalucía's PSOE (that's what happens when you are in government since the 70s) but still, I prefer them before LA CAVERNA PEPERA.

Also, do you really believe Rajoy has full support from his party? What about Esperanza Aguirre and her allies in the media? I mean, even Intereconomía group was attacking Rajoy when Bárcenas went rogue.

As a liberal (in the normal sense of the word, not the yank definition) I guess I should support UPyD but I don't believe they are able to be the government and not just another opposition party.

Good question: What would have happened if Chacón defeated Rubalcaba in the PSOE's leadership election? She was very sympathetic with the "federalist" idea...

[Peeperkorn]

Funniest headline ever.

[Nanwe]

Also, do you really believe Rajoy has full support from his party? What about Esperanza Aguirre and her allies in the media? I mean, even Intereconomía group was attacking Rajoy when Bárcenas went rogue.

That doesn't matter. The next PP Congress will be held in 2016 so until then unless there's a rebellion within the Cabinet nothing will come of it. All PP barones (except Madrid's Ignacio Gonzalez, and even he is less anti-Rajoy than Aguirre) and important members are pro-Rajoy. Aguirre and Aznar have support among the hard right base, but the PP is not the GOP, no one gives a sh**t about the bases except during the electoral campaign.

Intereconomia and related have been attacking Rajoy since 2004 when they call him "maricomplejines" (Mariano the pussy, very liberal translation)

As a liberal (in the normal sense of the word, not the yank definition) I guess I should support UPyD but I don't believe they are able to be the government and not just another opposition party.

Well, if we were to go by that logic, then only PP and PSOE wuld ever be elected because the rest of the Parliament is in permanent opposition. By just looking at the polls, UPyD and IU ae going to play important roles in the future parliament, whether by entering coalitions, supply and confidence deals or by being blocked by a grand coalition.

Also, funnily enough, in Spain, liberal is a term used by the hard right to refer to themselves. People who are much closer to libertarianism, Thatcherism and/or GOP fanboys tend to classify themselves as liberales.